, 10.27.2017 07:34 AM

Is Trudeau losing B.C.?

I don’t think so, and I said so to Mr. Nuttall at The Tyee:

Political consultant and former North Vancouver Liberal candidate Warren Kinsella rejects that idea.

Kinsella told The Tyee the Liberal strategy has always been to win as many seats across the board as possible. Although some “central Canadian” strategists may suggest trying to trade off seats in B.C. for gains elsewhere, Kinsella said he doubts Trudeau would go for it.

“That kind of calculus is pretty risky,” he said. “I just do not believe that of him, that he would discount the ever growing number of seats found in B.C. because somebody suggested to him he could make it up somewhere else.”

Kinsella said the Liberals do seem out of touch on some environmental issues in B.C.

But some of the groups Trudeau has upset in B.C., such as the anti-pipeline contingent, would have likely voted for the New Democrats anyway, he added.

The government has been “losing its sea legs” in other provinces lately and it’s not an issue specific to B.C., Kinsella said. “Sometimes you get into those phases where everything seems to be going wrong and you can’t catch a break.”

With an “untested” Jagmeet Singh leading the federal NDP and new Conservative leader Andrew Scheer a “dud,” Kinsella said Trudeau is still the contender to beat in 2019.

Others interviewed include Kai Nagata, David Moscrop and my friend Herb Dhaliwal. Check it out, comments are open.


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    Miles Lunn says:

    If one believes the polls it seems Ontario is where the Liberals would lose the greatest number of seats as a slight downturn in the Liberals and slight uptick in the Tories could result in several seats flipping. Also in Atlantic Canada it will be tough to get another clean sweep while in the Prairies they could lose a few, but in BC the average of the polls suggests the results would be similar to 2015 mind a lot of close races. Quebec though is probably where the party is most likely to gain seats as in the rest of Canada, the party had one its strongest performances ever so will be tough to hold all those seats. Trudeau in 1968 and Chretien in 1993 had similarly strong performances in English Canada, but both lost seats there in the following election. Both however held or gained seats in Quebec (It was gains in Quebec in 1997 that prevented Chretien from losing his majority as well as with the right divided he could sweep Ontario which Trudeau won’t be able to do).

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      The Doctor says:

      You’re right, that seems to be the most likely scenario: Quebec saves Liberal butt. That by-election they just had seems to point the way to 2019. The Liberals are going to win a ridiculous number of seats in Quebec, barring some sort of drastic event. That’s why JT is not going out of his way to go after that veil law.

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    BlueGritr says:

    If the Blandster (Scheer) renews a pro-pipeline push (Kinder Morgan & Energy East) in 2019, I know where Singh’s New Democrats will lineup. But how will Justin position his party? Smartly straddle the fence like in 2015? Having a foot on each side of the fence might work again — or it maybe an entirely unsellable strategy that’ll hurt the Liberals in vote-rich pockets like Greater Vancouver. Don’t see the pipeline subject going away, and it’ll shape the Liberals fortune in B.C.

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      The Doctor says:

      I still think Big gains in Quebec will more than offset any possible losses in BC. It’s back to the old recipe — Trudeau-led Liberals ride Quebec seat haul to victory.

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        BlueGritr says:

        Totally agree: 25 seats in Atlantic Canada and at least 60 seats in Quebec will give Justin’s Liberals an 85 seat running head start in 2019. Add 70 seats in Ontario and they’re closing in on a majority government.

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    Ronald O'Dowd says:


    I never, ever, take anything for granted as regards Quebec seats. The PM would do well to do the same.

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