, 02.10.2018 10:49 AM

Kathleen Wynne is the luckiest politician alive

Here’s why:

• Andrew Horwath’s New Democrats have been in a witness protection program for months – and, when they finally start to show signs of life, they lose their Chief of Staff to allegations he was indifferent to complaints about sexual harassment

• Caroline Mulroney is revealing herself to be completely unprepared for the top job – she looks and sounds uncertain, she’s nervous and she’s clearly out of her depth – and increasing numbers of worried PCs are saying Wynne would eat her alive in a leader’s debate

• Christine Elliott is doing again what she did in 2009 and 2015 – she’s phoning it in, and giving an entirely new dimension to the Trumpian epithet, “low energy”

• Doug Ford is amazing and charming PCs everywhere – he’s being disciplined, strategic and working his tail off – but he’d still be easy for the Libs to demonize in a province-wide vote

• Oh, and for good measure, the last thing the PCs needed – for Patrick Brown to start doing the rounds in the media, and demonizing those young women who came forward – is, incredibly, actually happening

At this point, I am hearing from many, many senior and experienced Progressive Conservatives that Doug Ford may well win this thing. Incredible, I know, but he is doing what he should be doing: working. Elliot simply isn’t – and Mulroney is decidedly not up to the job.

Like I say: Kathleen Wynne is the luckiest politician alive.

15 Comments

  1. Adam says:

    “Witness protection program”? More like big media outlets that only seem to want to report about Liberals and Conservatives — and who ignore the NDP except to report on their mistakes.

    We have no idea where support will go until an election is on and Ontarians are actually paying attention to politics.

  2. Robert White says:

    Premier Kathleen Wynne does not need luck to win the GTA given that the so-called ‘Progressive Conservative’ Party has imploded all across Ontario due to the short term thinking of Steven ‘Fat Bastard’ Harper on the Dykstra file. That is the nexus of political failure that brought nothing but division & fragmentation to the provincial PCs & federal neocons. In brief, Fat Bastard Harper, or Jabba-the-Hut Fat Bastard Harper [take your pick], mistakenly thought that he could install whatever sociopaths he wanted into the Ontario legislature and eventually win the helm through the thousand cuts that typically take governments down before elections.

    Fat Bastard Harper, and his crony neocon sociopaths, are simply too narrow minded to win over the electorate, or parliamentarians, and that’s why Fat Bastard Harper et al. will never even remotely get near the reigns of power to occupy the helm ever again.

    Premier Kathleen Wynne does not need luck to win the 3rd term seat of power in Ontario thanks to the windfall of ignorance, and pure stupidity, of Steven ‘Fat Bastard’ Harper, and his merry band of imbeciles from the Reform-in-pantyhose movement.

    Heck, Fat Bastard gave us Dykstra, Brown, MacLaren, & Lyin’ God damn Brian’s progeny for the opening bid of the 2018 provincial election.

    Premier Kathleen Wynne does not need luck to win with these odds stacked against the PCs via Fat Bastard Harper hands & atrophied frontal cortex.

    RW

  3. RDL says:

    *Andrea* Horwath.

  4. rww says:

    And apparently some very right wing religious folk are lining up behind Ford. And if there is one thing those folk are good at is coming together over fringe issues. If they buy PC memberships in droves they can make the difference for Ford.

  5. Matt says:

    “Like I say: Kathleen Wynne is the luckiest politician alive.”

    Well……..

    I’m sure the Democrats were ecstatic when Trump won the Republican nomination too.

    Never know what will happen during the election.

    I’m told Ford pulled in nearly $25,000 in donations in one day last week.

  6. Mark says:

    Doug is being disciplined and strategic? Did you not see him get his ass turned inside out by Terry Milewski on PnP yesterday?

    We need to stop fawning over this guy’s populist schtick and accept the fact that he is a blundering TV-news character that the political punditry keeps reviving every election cycle.

    As for the PCs as a whole, what we should have expected is taking place. To try and run a leadership race on the eve of an general election is impossible without candidates trying to re-shape the party in their mold. Nobody was going to simply adopt the Patrick Brown agenda. Undoing his leadership to both the party apparatus and the party policy was wholly foreseeable.

  7. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    Couple of points: before I would predict the possible resurrection of Wynne in a campaign, I would want to compare her personal numbers going into the last election and this one. If her high negatives don’t demonstrably soften, I don’t see how Liberals can carry the campaign. People don’t generally vote for someone they can’t stand.

    My money is on Ford. Elliott is the new indifferent candidate in the PC leadership race. If Ford wins, plenty of voters will vote for the PCs and lots won’t. If both Wynne and Ford have high negatives in the election, then where do people go? Given that likely scenario, that’s where a golden opportunity may be provided to Horwath and the NDP.

  8. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    Are we going to see a repeat of Brian Mulroney’s first leadership race? The weave of the pattern is strikingly similar. Looks like the same sort of mistakes are about to be made again…

  9. Miles Lunn says:

    I still think with Wynne’s low approval ratings she has an uphill battle nonetheless the fact she has a chance is quite remarkable. After 15 years in power with a 20% approval rating, she should be on her way to a major route much like Greg Selinger had in Manitoba two years ago. The fact she has a chance says a lot about the opposition.

  10. Liam Young says:

    I’m only voting Green Party from now. The rest can fade to oblivion for all I care.

  11. Miles Lunn says:

    That being said I don’t think Liberals should be popping the champagne yet, things may not turn out so well.

    NDP: Howarth is invisible and weak, but her poll numbers are better than Notley’s were 116 days before the election and we all know what happened as well as her poll numbers are better than Jack Layton’s were 116 days before the 2011 election so she likely won’t be the next premier, but wouldn’t discount her.

    For the PCs, my thoughts are as follows and why Wynne should still be somewhat concerned.

    Elliott: She may be low energy, but she is most people’s second choice so as long as there is no winner on the first ballot and she comes in second, she will likely win it as the majority of second choices of both Ford and Mulroney will likely be for her. Never mind she has a much stronger appeal to women than Brown ever could so I think if she wins, the party will win an even bigger majority than they would have under Brown.

    Mulroney: Agree she comes across as unprepared, but you know who else also did, none other than our current PM. In June 2015, Trudeau was horrible at interviews so what he did is during the summer he spent hours working on his interviewing and debating skills and it showed in the Fall. So no reason Mulroney couldn’t spend March and April brushing up her debating skills much like Trudeau did. She has lots of smart strategic politicians around her and they will no doubt deal with her weaknesses.

    Doug Ford: Agree choosing him would be bad news for the PCs, but the Liberals if they want to beat him must hit him hard. The real danger for the Liberals is not they cannot beat him, it is more they might get complacent much like Hillary Clinton did and just assume he will defeat himself. The Liberals will need to hit him with really hard hitting attack ads. Also with Wynne’s low approval he still might even then get a minority so it will be important to keep the lines of communication open with Howarth so if this happens they can discuss putting together a coalition or arrangement to keep him out if they wish to. They might decide a Ford minority will defeat itself quickly so better to let them shoot themselves in the foot, but that is what they said about Harper and it wasn’t until he got a majority he actually defeated himself.

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:

      Miles,

      You can’t equate Trudeau’s relative level of unpreparedness with that of Mulroney. Sure, he wasn’t prepared for the big job going into the last election but at least he had experience as an MP since 2008.

      Apples and oranges.

      • Miles Lunn says:

        I think the comparison at least when it comes to debating and interviewing skills is apt. Yes Mulroney has less political experience but I think her big problem is when being interviewed she comes across weak so if she improves that it will help. As for political experience it is a double edge sword. People like those who are prepared, but also many are tired of politicians and like an outsider so cuts both ways, although being a political dynasty could work against her.

  12. Pedant says:

    Andrea Horvath jumped the shark when she said that the justice system is in place to “protect women”.

    I can’t take seriously someone who doesn’t understand the difference between the police and the courts.

  13. Rural says:

    With the facts that Doug Ford was a drug dealer at one time, plus the fact that Mulroney is dual citizen, there is not much of a chance of the PC’s winning. Elliot is a born loser, already having lost 2 leadership races. I can see that if Mulroney is elected leader, the tag lines will remind voters of the huge unpopularity of her father, plus a rehash of Stephen Harpers most devastating political ads in 2011. Anyone remember “Just Visiting” Michael Ignatieff? Wynne’s chances have greatly improved, but do not ever discount Horwath and the NDP. I know many people who are seriously considering her and the NDP instead of the PC’s in rural Ontario.

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