03.08.2018 11:28 AM

Angus Reid Poll: PCs would win (big) with Elliott

These results are consistent with what John Wright’s DART came up with yesterday, as seen here.

Useful chart:

Key findings summarized:

The chaos and scandal that have rocked the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario over the last six weeks appears to have done little damage to the party’s electoral fortunes, but a new public opinion poll from the Angus Reid Institute shows that could change, depending on the outcome of this weekend’s PC leadership vote.

Two of the people running to replace former leader Patrick Brown – Christine Elliott and Caroline Mulroney – seem well-positioned to maintain the party’s lead before the scheduled June election, but a third – Doug Ford – could send would-be Tory voters running for another party, or keep them on their couches come election day.

Ford is a polarizing figure, beloved by many in the party’s base, but strongly disliked by many outside it. While Ontarians overall are more likely to have a favourable than unfavourable view of Elliott and Mulroney, nearly twice as many have an unfavourable view of Ford (51%) as have a favourable one (27%).

This dynamic could extend to vote intention as well. Both Elliott and Mulroney would inspire more Ontarians to vote for the party than they would drive away, while Ford would discourage double the number he would encourage to support the Progressive Conservatives if he became leader (42% versus 19%, respectively).

Full release is here.

The Wynne Liberals have two shots at survival: the big-spending budget that is coming at month’s end, or the campaign that comes very quickly after that.

Chad Walsh, Rebecca Mackenzie, Alexis Levine and a few other Ontario Liberals have the skills to craft a winning campaign.  The Wizard and the Board, meanwhile, are the same group who destroyed the federal Liberal Party and consigned us to a decade in the wilderness.  And they still have Wynne’s ear.

The budget, meanwhile, needs to be simply extraordinary.  Pharmacare, Hydro price rollbacks, the minimum wage hike, etc. have all been popular – but Wynne hasn’t become more popular as a result.  So what can she do in that budget that will make enough of a difference?  It is going to be her campaign document – but I’m not sure enough voters are listening to her anymore.

Kathleen Wynne is a formidable politician, but she has a formidable problem: Ontarians like the message, but not the messenger.

Comments are open.

6 Comments

  1. Kyle says:

    The poll leaves till the end the 27% who are not decided. Under these metrics only 36.5 % of decided and leaning voters are for a PC government and it would mean 18.5% for a Liberal government. Certainly not a nice number for the Liberals, but we also do not know who is decided and who is leaning in the Angus Reid poll. We’ve had polls that include leaning voters and they’ve turned into duds.

  2. Pedant says:

    I wonder if Wynne will call in T2 to stump for her and provide the occasional creepy bear hug? The Tories can only hope.

  3. Matt says:

    Someone is playing fast and loose with the fundraising numbers.

    It has been leaked Mulroney has raised over $850,000 while Elliott has raised just over $160,000.

    I was told by someone close to Elliott that number is bullshit. They said Elliott has raised over $650,000. She couldn’t confirm the Mulroney number.

    • Matt says:

      Did a little digging:

      Mulroney camp claiming over $930,000 from 2600+ donors (original leak claimed $850,000+)

      Elliott camp saying ove $650,000 from 4000+ donors (original leak claimed $160,000+)

      Ford camp claiming $400,000+ from 4200+ donors (original leak claimed $115,000)

      Original leak/story looks like it was based on what has so far been reported to Elections Ontario, which I was told could be a few weeks behind in updating the totals.

  4. P Bren says:

    I think liberals are done if Elliott in , maybe Mulroney too… point 1) most ontarians know you cant continue to run deficits given debt/interest expense size…liberals promised not to do that once to balance so that is a big issue

    point 2) – with added debt/deficit spend ..I dont think you can buy enough votes to offset general momentum for change and point 1

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