03.07.2018 01:54 PM

Dart and Newstalk 1010 Ontario politics shocker poll: it had better be one Hell of a March 28 budget

…because they are seriously running out of runway.  Wow.

This poll is a shocker, from respected pollster John Wright and the good folks at 1010:

Despite Leadership Contest Tumult,
Preference is for Ontario PC’s (44%) to Govern,
NDP (24%), Liberal Party (19%), “Other” (13%)

 Eight in 10 (81%) Ontarians believe it’s time for another provincial party to take over and run the province compared to just two in 10 (19%) who say the Liberal government under Premier Kathleen Wynne has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected

 Toronto—As the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario gets down to choosing a new leader on Saturday, March 10, 2018, a new poll conducted by DART Insight for NewsTalk 1010 suggests that despite the tumultuous month of leadership campaigning, Ontarians still prefer the PC’s to govern the province versus all others.

 The results were gathered during the meltdown of former PC leader Patrick Brown’s attempt to regain his post and suggest that even in the midst of the campaign cacophony, when given a choice as to who should govern Ontario, voters still preferred the Ontario PC’s (44%) to do so versus the Ontario New Democratic Party (24%), the Ontario Liberal Party (19%) or another party of their choice (“Other” 13%). Ontario voters go to the polls on June 7, 2018.

 These preferences are against a backdrop where eight in 10 (81%) Ontarians believe it’s time for another Party to take over and run the Province compared to just two in 10 (19%) who say the Liberal government under Premier Kathleen Wynne has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected.

The DART Insight Online scientific poll was conducted between February 19 – 27, 2018, among almost 1000 Ontario adults (962 aged 18+), was weighted to the latest general population census and is considered accurate within +/- 3.6% using a Bayesian Credibility Interval measurement. Note that totals may be +/- 100% due to rounding.

Boy, the Wizard and the Board sure have done a good job!

20 Comments

  1. Dork in East York says:

    Yikes, 5 points behind the NDP?!? We better see unicorns, Minister Sousa.

  2. John Wright says:

    So my theory is this: Sousa laid down the gauntlet today in telegraphing the “ballot question” via the budget theme and substance: when you need your healthcare system, who do you trust to make sure it’s there–us or them?

    So they want to make it a referendum on healthcare–the biggest gun, the number 1 issue…

    What happens if the PC’s don’t take the bait and throw down their own challenge? After all, were not Ornge and e-health on the Grit watch…and if successful tomorrow, maybe even the PC’s will have a Patient Advocate running for Premier…

  3. John Wright says:

    To the point: running an $8 Billion dollar deficit for all this stuff (and maybe to even balance what came before) may change the ballot question…

    Most Ontarions believe there is so much waste and fat in the government that PC cutting will not only be needed but will spare the deficit and pay for everything else…

    • Matt says:

      Well, here’s the problem for the Liberals:

      They claimed they balanced the budget last year. They didn’t as both the Financial Accountability Officer and Auditor General both showed.

      The Liberals claimed the budget would be balanced going forward for, if I recall correctly, the following three years.

      Again, both the Financial Accountability Officer and Auditor General said no, the budgets going forward would in fact not be balanced. The FAO’s deficit predictions made around August 2017:

      Deficit of $7.1 billion in 2018, $7.8 billion in 2019, $9 billion in 2020 and $9.8 billion in 2021.

      Hmmm……

      The deficit prediction from the FAO made last year without all this new spending is awful close to the $8 Billion deficit Sousa is predicting because of new spending in the March 28th budget….

  4. John Wright says:

    Having said that, the budget deficit announcement has already produced a counter narrative that plays into the PC’s hands…many are saying the books were not balanced and this is just shell gaming…what the real political hurt to them is that it makes the Grits look desperate trying to plunge the province further into debt by trying to buy voters with their own taxpayers money. Most believe that there is tons of fat and waste so if the PC’s have to cut there will still be enough to go around…

  5. Lance says:

    Don’t leaderless parties often do okay in polling, considering that there is no polarizing figure to latch onto? Perhaps this will change once the PC get a leader.

    • Matt says:

      Other companies have polled with questions specific people leading the OPC.

      “If Christine Elliott were leading the Ontario PC’s which party would you vote for in the upcoming election?” They did the same using Ford, Mulroney and Brown.

      I believe the last one to do it that way was Mainstreet before Brown dropped out.

      Didn’t matter who was leading the OPC, All would beat the Liberals by a substantial margin. Biggest was Elliott I think.

      • Matt says:

        Apologies. It was Ipsos, not Mainstreet. Forum also did one like that just after the leadership race was announced.

  6. P. Brenn says:

    yikes ..LPC should pull a CPC and get new leader ..still time 🙂

  7. Matt says:

    Oh, it’ll be a hell of a budget.

    With an $8 Billion deficit announced by Finance Minister Sousa today as the Wynne Liberals try to buy the election.

  8. Gord says:

    I think the problem “the Wizard and the Board” have is that their usual tactic of running to the left and scaremongering about the opposition in order to squeeze the Dipper vote only has a chance of working if Ford wins the PC leadership. If Elliott or Mulroney win, they’re not sufficiently scary to make Liberal/NDP switchers want to hold their nose and vote Liberal to keep the Tories out.

    • Gyor says:

      That tactic also doesn’t work when the NDP is higher in the polls then the Liberals, and in fact could back fire big time and likely will.

      • Ronald O'Dowd says:

        Gyor,

        Horwath needs to start moving Liberals over to the NDP, if they really want to stop an Elliott-led PCPO.

        Horwath had better get it in gear NOW!

    • Pedant says:

      Doug Ford may force some higher-income/privileged Dippers to go Liberal to stop him, but he will pick up lots of lower-income erstwhile Dipper voters to compensate. Whereas it is fairly simple to guess where support for Elliot or Mulroney will lie on election night, Ford is far far more unpredictable. He could deliver anything from an historic 90-seat majority to an outright loss to a minority Liberal government. I don’t think a majority Liberal win is possible at this point under any circumstance.

  9. Miles Lunn says:

    http://angusreid.org/ontario-pc-elliott-mulroney-ford/ this shows an even bigger lead.

    PC 50%
    Lib 24%
    NDP 22%

    But a caveat, shows Ford with high negatives, while Mulroney and especially Elliott in good position to win. The only times in recent memory I’ve seen a party blow such a large lead is Adrian Dix in BC in 2013, although Theresa May came pretty close in the most recent British election.

  10. Ric says:

    Wynne should put in place a leadership transition plan maybe midway to their first term. The reason Liberal survived McGuinty is people know there is at least a change in leader if they don’t change the party.

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