03.06.2018 11:46 AM

Ontario Election Watch, right here, gratis

[By one of my smart Daisy colleagues.]

As of Tuesday, March 6th in Ontario:

  • Writ drops in 64 days!
  • Wednesday, May 9th
  • Election is 13 weeks and 2 days away
  • 93 days!
  • Ontario’s provincial election is set for Thursday, June 7th, 2018
  • There are 124 electoral districts in Ontario in 2018
  • Up from 107 in 2014
  • Therefore, 63+ seats = majority government

Interesting thought – there are an even number of districts (124) to be contested in the 2018 election.

Therefore… it is possible for the two parties to end up with a combined seat total that is equal to the seat total of the winning party. (example: the NDP wins 62 seats – while the Tories win 60 seats and the Liberals win 2 seats.)

In that case… backroom deals and the election of a speaker will be unlike anything we’ve ever seen.

And if we don’t think that is possible, please note that Ontario’s 2011 minority government was decided by just 630 votes in Perth-Wellington:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randy_Pettapiece


  1. Russ says:

    Sounds like a BC scenario – just remember – we did it first 😉

    • Pedant says:

      Indeed. Although since the Speaker comes from the government benches*, the Liberals really needed a bare majority + 1 for a functioning majority in the Legislature. So even if Perth-Wellington had gone the other way, the Libs would have still been in a functional minority situation in 2011.

      *I know the Speaker can sometimes (rarely) be an Opposition MPP, however in a razor-thin result like that, neither the Tories nor NDP would ever agree to lose a member to the Speaker’s role; it would have to come from the government side.

  2. Dork in East York says:

    I think it’ll be a Liberal minority, 50-60 seat range.

  3. 7ZU4 says:

    After 14 yrs of the Libs in government and the shitshow the Pc’s have been putting on for Ontario, an NDP minority would be fine by me.

    • Matt says:

      Multiple polls show since the PC shit show began the OPC’s support has increased.

      • 7ZU4 says:

        That’s a good thing? The election is 13 wks away and the party has no leader. Of the four candidates for the leadership, not one currently has a seat in the House and only one ever has. ‘…just not ready.’

        • Matt says:

          Yet another poll out today has the OPC ahead 20 points.

          As I’ve said before, people seem to have made up their minds – It’s time for a change.

          As for not having a seat, that’s completely irrelevant at this point. The Legislature is only sitting for another 8 or 9 weeks then the writ is dropped, at which point nobody running in any of the 124 ridings will have a seat.

          • 7ZU4 says:

            I’ll work on figuring out how the polls relate to my original comment. You can work on figuring out how experience relates to running a political party or a government.

            Feel free to have the last word here, Matt.

  4. Ted H says:

    I support the Liberals both Federally and Provincially but I would have no problem with an NDP government. They would at least try to help people whereas the Cons would simply f**k things up as their kind always do.

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