04.05.2018 07:24 AM

[Insert Titanic reference here][UPDATED]

21 Comments

  1. Brian Potts says:

    I’m the King of the Underworld! (third place?)

  2. Matt says:

    Hearing at least two more will announce soon they won’t be running.

    MacCharles was a bit of a surprise as she wasn’t there that long.

  3. p bre says:

    why decide so late not to run …

  4. Christine Matthews says:

    and Michael Chan

  5. Dork in East York says:

    Hell, both could potentially eek out a win. But why collect dust in the opposition benches for four years?

    • Miles Lunn says:

      Not necessarily although for Chan and MacCharles their ridings got split so depends which one they ran in.

      Grant Crack (Glengarry-Prescott-Russell) – Historically this was a very safe Liberal one due to its large Francophone population but in the past decade results both provincially or federally have largely matched up with the overall results so this will likely back whomever wins. Lets remember it is a very rural riding and Liberals are hated in rural Ontario.

      MacCharles – She had two choices of ridings to run in. Pickering-Uxbridge is a bellwether so it will go for whichever party wins the most seats. Scarborough-Rouge Park is more favourable to the Liberals so on the surface would seem like she could win, but it voted heavily for Doug Ford in the last municipal election thus making it a real wild card. Also the NDP did quite well there in the 2011 federal election so an NDP surge could result in an upset or create the necessary vote splits for the PCs to win.

      Chan – He had two choices of ridings to run. Markham-Unionville (new boundaries) almost went PC last time and they would have only lost by 3% while federally it is held by the Tories so that is one of their lowest hanging fruits. Markham-Thornhill did stay Liberal in 2011 federal election so on the surface looks like a safe one, but its directly north of areas that voted heavily for Doug Ford municipally in 2014 and Ford is much stronger amongst minorities than most conservative leaders have been and it is over 75% visible minority (which in the past meant safe Liberal, but not necessarily this time as municipally the least white areas of Toronto were where Doug Ford had his best showing in 2014).

      With Eric Hoskins your argument would be correct, but not those three. Never mind Liberal support is fairly evenly spread out unlike the NDP or PCs so if they rebound a bit in the polls they will hold most of the ridings they hold now, but slide a bit and they will get wiped off the map with single digits in seats.

  6. Bruce M says:

    They wanted to see if the Hail Mary budget would move the yardsticks. Assessments have been delivered.

  7. Miles Lunn says:

    Not good and also all three are vulnerable ridings. Michael Chan was running in Markham-Thornhill which is part of the 905 belt so although traditionally Liberal, PCs could pick it up especially when you consider Ford does well amongst minorities. Tracy MacCharles riding was split so either Pickering-Uxbridge which was vulnerable never mind unlike her past riding it is fairly rural in the northern parts where the Tories tend to win big while Scarborough-Rouge Park seemed more favourable but it did vote heavily for Doug Ford municipally.

    Grant Crack’s riding of Glengarry-Prescott-Russell has been a long time Liberal riding, but did go Conservative federally under Harper and is a rural riding and Wynne is very unpopular in Rural Ontario.

    Read what you want but much like with Harper in 2015, a high turnover is never a good sign. Now sometimes things do work out okay, BC Liberals in 2013 had a lot of MLA’s jumping ship yet did manage to comeback, but the Tories in 2015 weren’t so lucky and the many jumping ship was a strong forewarning of what was to come.

  8. Eastern Rebellion says:

    I believe the election will be closer than people think (although I know that goes against the current prognostications). I’m sure the gloves will really come off once the writ is dropped, and I don’t know how well Doug will do against a very savvy politician. It’s too bad the NDP seem like such an afterthought; Andrea for whatever reason has been unable to generate party support, notwithstanding all of her alleged popular support.

  9. Cory says:

    My take is GPR situation was orchestrated by the loval Lib MP and they realize that having a Francophone candidate will give them a bump in support.

    Problem is the local mayor they have lined up to run for them had a pro-Hudak blog last election and recently was telling customers of his recently closed video stores that he let go of staff and closed shop due to the increase in minimum wage and business taxes.

    The blog has been deleted but email copies of his posting from his mailing list may still be floating out there.

    On top of that in his campaign announcement he’s distancing himself from the Liberals and acting as an opposition MP saying he’s the best person to stand up to the government for local voters.

    • Matt says:

      Is this the mayor of Russell Township?

      The guy who as late as two or three weeks ago was begging the OPC for the nomination? The guy who was telling everyone who would listen that Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals needed to go?

  10. Matt says:

    Off topic, but what’s your take on the whole OPC not providing a media bus thing.

    I’ve been told by three people today that this was in fact being discussed LAST FALL when Brown was still leader. His C0S Alykhan Velshi actually went so far as to canvas the media about it.

    So the media KNOW this has been a possibility for months, yet they are all going with the false narrative that this is a recent decision the OPC’s made to keep Ford away from reporters.

  11. Pedant says:

    Yeah, real classy of them, deciding to suddenly bail 60 days before the vote. Really a bit of a creep move.

  12. billg says:

    How do you run on, “we’re proud of our debt, we’d do it again, and, just wait till you see how much we’re going to borrow if we win”?
    Although, the honesty is refreshing.

  13. Tod Cowen says:

    Just about every major election in the western world right now is a “change” election. Why would this one be any different, especially when the incumbent polls so poorly? It’s very similar to what Hillary Clinton faced in 2016: an electorate that was looking for change (and she was the nominee of the incumbent party), and that also had an unfavorable opinion of her.

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:

      Tod,

      Well, Yes and No.

      It was without a doubt a change election but remember that Trump’s unfavourables were consistently greater than Hillary’s and he got in anyway.

    • Miles Lunn says:

      Not every election recently has resulted in change of government but true even where re-elected such as Germany and the UK or here at home Nova Scotia, the incumbents underperformed expectations. Also length of time in power has a lot to do with it as well. In Manitoba, Greg Selinger had similar numbers and suffered a pretty stunning defeat. Christy Clark, whose party had been in power even longer didn’t do as bad, but BC is a lot more polarized and has fewer swing voters as well as her personal approval ratings were bad, but not nearly as bad as Wynne’s are.

  14. Paul O says:

    It’s a longstanding tradition in politics to count the people not running for re-election in a governing Party and generously apply the phrase “rats leaving a sinking ship”.

    I’ve never been much for such stories, regardless of the Party: some will leave, and the longer the Party has been in office the more there will be.

    All that said, I’m looking forward with hope to the June election and an new opportunity for Ontario to once again thrive!

    • Bill Templeman says:

      Paul, If we use the traditional metrics of GDP and unemployment, Ontario is thriving compared to most other provinces. Only BC has lower unemployment. Just sayin’

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


*