04.20.2018 07:47 AM

Ontario Liberals in third place, would get seven seats: poll

Boy, I sure am glad the Wizard is in charge, and getting all the big bucks! What a great job he and his boss have done!


The Ontario Liberals would go from majority government to seven-seat rump if an election were held this week, according to a new poll and projection by Forum Research.

In the poll conducted Wednesday, Forum found 46 per cent of voters said they would cast a ballot for the Progressive Conservatives if an election were held today, 27 per cent said they’d vote New Democrat and only 21 per cent said they’d vote Liberal.

Forum has had the PCs polling in the 40s for most the past two years, with the NDP and Liberals battling it out in the 20s for second place for most of the last year.


  1. Dork in East York says:

    I’m trying to guess the seven seats they keep:

    St. Paul’s
    Spadina Fort York
    Eglinton Bathurst
    Ottawa Vanier
    Ottawa Centre
    Glengarry Prescott

    • Douglas Musk says:

      Prescott’s gone. The CPC has won it federally in the pat and the Liberal MPP has retired.

      Yes it’s heavily francophone but it’s also rural. The Liberals won’t win it.

      More likely Guelph or another Toronto riding.

      Or perhaps an uber popular incumbent like Gravelle in Thunder Bay.

    • Pedant says:

      That’s a fun punditry exercise.

      Definitely not Glengarry Prescott. As the previous person said, it went Tory federally under Harper. It will do the same provincially under a PC majority.

      Toronto Centre definitely safe Liberal. University-Rosedale perhaps. Then of course there is Wynne’s own seat of Don Valley West. Wealthiest seat in the 416. Tough territory for the Fordian PCs.

      I think you mean Eglinton-Lawrence. There is no such riding as Eglinton Bathurst.

  2. Brendan says:

    As bad as the 21% figure looks now, by the time this is all said and done she might only actually pull 15% or 16% of the vote come election night. It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see a greater contingent of progressive support drift over to Horwath in the coming weeks to boost the NDP into the low to mid 30’s if the general consensus points to Andrea as the “Not Doug” candidate with the best potential for electoral success.
    Also, by running a DEFCON 1 campaign prior to the writ even being dropped, Team Red runs a risk of overplaying their “Monster Doug” hand – which may not be widely viewed as remotely credible should Ford happen to present himself at the debates in a restrained, moderate and cool as a cucumber fashion.

  3. Matt says:

    Well, it’s Forum, so truck load of salt.

    But this part is worrying:

    “More than half (54%) say that the PCs will win the provincial election. One-fifth (19%), about the same as current Liberal support, say it will be the Liberals. 1 in 10 (10%) say it will be the NDP.”

    That could hurt or benefit the PC’s and really hurt the Liberals.

    Some OPC voters may think the party has the victory all locked up and say I don’t need to vote. Or it may push more people to get out and vote for them because they want to vote for a winner.

    Liberals, it’s’s bad all around. Their voters could stay home, or jump to the NDP to try and stop Ford.

    Lots can and probably will still happen. I mean the writ hasn’t even been dropped yet. Can Ford keep his foot out of his mouth and more importantly can his candidates?

    With the crap the Liberals have pulled the last week, their desperation will only get worse.

  4. John W. says:

    I remember when the three Ontario leaders were Bill Davis, Bob Nixon, and Stephen Lewis.
    Any centrist or progressive could vote for either of these three and come out of the booth feeling satisfied with a clear conscience.
    I can’t see how any progressive could vote Ford without a feeling of fear and despair.
    On another issue: in the old days it was called Ontario Hydro and was sacrosanct to the three politicians mentioned above. Since the beginning of the last century public electric generation and distribution were the pride and joy of all Ontarians.
    Selling off this symbol of Ontario by the Liberals is a betrayal of everything most of centre left people stand for. Doug Ford won’t buy it back. So we’re left with nowhere to go but back to the NDP.
    I think this Hydro sell off is a quiet but forceful, decisive ballot box issue.
    This wizard you’re always talking about Warren, had better figure out some way walk it back and fast.Wynne not only betrayed her party, she betrayed the greatest accomplishment in Ontario history.
    The road to Horwath is wide and very inviting, and guilt free.

    • Miles Lunn says:

      While most Ontarioans disagree with the sell off, I think the problem the NDP may face is the cost of buying it back. The company is valued at over $9 billion so buying back the shares will not be cheap and so you probably have a fair number who will say should have never been privatized, but now that its done, its too expensive to reverse. Now buying back 3% of shares so the government is majority owner again that would be far more feasible.

      • doconnor says:

        The current price to earnings ratio of Hydro One is about 20. It would take about 13 years to buy back the remaining 50%. The impact of the loss of revenue is taken into account in the NDP platform. I don’t know why people think this can’t be done when it is one of their most straight forward promises.

        • Miles Lunn says:

          13 years is a long time and unlikely they would stay in power that long. I was more thinking could it be done in four years which I don’t think it can.

    • Terry says:

      and that raid is paved with utterly nonsensical underestimates of the massive costs of their promise anything agenda. If you have kids or are planning to, you should feel a bit guilty about saddling them them a kajillion dollars more debt.

    • Fred from BC says:

      “Since the beginning of the last century public electric generation and distribution were the pride and joy of all Ontarians.
      Selling off this symbol of Ontario by the Liberals is a betrayal of everything most of centre left people stand for. ”

      This is something I’ve never understood: how a public utility (and enormously important asset) could end up being sold in the first place. Was Ontario so heavily in debt that they had no choice? Shouldn’t the energy security that comes with public ownership outweigh all other concerns?

      I’m pretty sure that if you tried that in BC there would be angry demonstrations in the streets (at least I would hope so)…

      • doconnor says:

        I suspect it was because the Bay St bankers they hired told them to because the Bay St bankers stood to make a lot of money on the fees.

        Another reason was to remove it from the FOA and other government scrutiny.

  5. Curt says:

    Maybe what is happening is that Canadians all over are quickly getting tired of Justin and his socialist ilk. B.C., Alta and PQ appear ready to flip from their present leadership.

    • Adam says:

      Hilarious that you think Trudeau is an actual socialist. He and his party are pro-corporate neoliberals, through and through.

  6. Kevin in Toronto says:

    I think these are the safest Liberal seats and I’d be surprised if they lost any of them
    Toronto St Paul’s
    Toronto Centre
    University Rosedale
    Ottawa Orleans
    Ottawa Vanier
    Kingston & The Islands
    Thunder Bay Superior North

    They also have a decent shot of retaining Eglinton Lawrence & St Catharines which have been Liberal strongholds for a long time. Everything else I think could fall to either the NDP or PC’s.

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