— Feature, Musings —05.25.2018 07:08 AM
First Ekos, now Forum!
Wow!
Is it all because of Doug Ford? No. It partly is, however.
What has really happened here is this: the Ontario Liberal Party vote has completely collapsed. They may be looking at no seats whatsoever.
Aren’t you glad you were paying The Wizard™️ $70,000 a month, Ontario Liberals?
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From a rural Ontario perspective, this could be ugly. Having an urban centred party controlling farm and food policy (just like Wynne liberals) is putting more knots in my stomach.
The “hairy leg” crowd will have a field day.
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The province is dominated by urban voters. Rural Ontario is a minority. You can only hope the urbanites are wise eniough to have a sensible agricultural policy. We all eat food.
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CITIES EMPLOY FARMERS
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That’s a bit ridiculous.
Firstly, urban centres elect governments in Canada; rural-voters alone simply cannot. I don’t know which party you’re seeing as “rural centred” because none of these parties can win without the support of urban/suburban voters.
Also, Doug Ford is a former city councillor from the largest urban centre in Canada that leads a party headquartered in that city.
Secondly, as “rww” put it above – we all eat food. No party, whether left, centre or right has any incentive in food or farm policy that negatively effects consumers.
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My NDP friends have been muttering for months: “This time, no more strategic voting. Am fed up with Liberal dishonesty. This time, I going to go with my conscience!” Will this tune change now that Team Orange is the huge beneficiary of strategic voting? There is a new party running in this election and they are now out in front: The NDF (Not Doug ….)
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my apologies for making a sexist statement. should have said “hairy leg and ponytail crowd”.
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Something isn’t adding up here.
From Forum’s data table on voter intention:
Total sample – 906 (854 respondents)
OPC: 342
NDP: 307
LIB: 143
Greens: 46
That says 40% to 35% for the OPC.
Clearly I’m missing something?
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Yup that was my thought too. Anyways Innovative out today with a poll of 36% PC, 31% NDP and 26% Liberal. Mainstreet tweeted PCs still ahead while Ekos out later. Frank Graves tweeted NDP ahead but within margin of error so much closer than yesterday’s reported one.
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Strong, stable, majority, socialist government… I’m sure the first order of business will be to eliminate first past the post in favor of proportional representation.
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Graves at EKOS now saying the race is much tighter than the one day sample result that they didn’t intend to release yesterday. (NDP 41 OPC 30)
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So Ekos one day was 507 people, showing a 10 pt spread. Forum also only a one day poll only. When Ekos added second day, total number of 1021 people, and a 10 pt spread became a 1 pt spread. so everyone is jumping on “big news” that isnt quite as big when you get past the headlines!
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Ekos now showing:
NDP 35.6
OPC 34.9
Libs 20.4
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This seems reminiscent of the federal election in ’74. Inflation was hammering the country. Bob Stanfield ran on wage & price controls. Trudeau attacked Stanfield, getting on state in his gunfighter pose, going “zap, you’re frozen.” The labour vote deserted the NDP, flocking to the Liberals. Stanfield lost. David Lewis couldn’t even hold onto his seat. Trudeau triumphed. Within a couple of months Trudeau went on evening TV to announce he had changed his mind and was implementing wage & price controls via the Anti-Inflation Board.
This time around it’s the Liberal vote jumping ship and heading to Horwath to block DoFo.
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H’mmm…still believe that campaigns don’t matter?
Ford had a huge lead at the start, but thanks to a disaster of a campaign marked by:
-incompetence;
-not having a platform (and therefore nothing to talk about);
-‘bozo eruptions’; and
-an unwillingness to answer legitimate questions.
By doing all the above and having a fumble a day, he has all but ensured that the NDP become:
a) the anti-Wynne alternative; and
b) the place for the ‘Anyone But Ford’ vote to go to.
Good job DoFo!
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An interesting dynamic to watch is where Francophone Ontario ends up. Wynne is as unpopular among that population as anywhere, but Ford’s anglophone focus on Southern Ontario is making his negatives run just about as bad. Eastern Ontario can be small-c conservative, but both parties are doing everything they can to throw support at the NDP.
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As a Franco-Ontarian I can tell you a pro-small business politician appeals to us because we have higher rates of self-employment especially the trades. It’s not all about language.
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Albertans did the same thing a few years back. Ask almost anyone from that province how that worked out for ’em.
And here in BC…pretty much a trainwreck looking for a place to happen.
Basically from the proverbial frying pan right into the flames. Whatever the Liberals don’t get to finish in sacking Ontario’s economy once and for all, the NDP will get that job done in a hurry.