, 05.13.2018 05:36 PM

KINSELLACAST 13: Campaigns don’t matter! Lisa sees the Jays! Millennial Ben! Hater hits Ottawa!



3 Comments

  1. Derek Pearce says:

    Awesome choice playing Nova Heart! Love love love that track.

  2. Karl-Milton Marx-Friedman says:

    Afternoon Warren,

    Re Leadership debate: I think you are partly correct in your categorization of traditional vs populist candidates/campaigns. Perhaps 40% correct. Why you are 60% incorrect, you might ask? Analogies are only good for explaining something ONCE so that folks who are encountering an idea for the first time can get it quickly. Analogies do not have predictive power however! My point is that Doug Ford is not Donald Trump and could still lose because it’s not ’16 etc etc.

    Re Populists: You’re point that criticism of a populist candidate can be deflected onto their voters is true (55% true), but surely that goes for criticism of any candidate. Criticizing Clinton = criticizing Democrats, women…[insert any other identity group] that spin doctor’s would like to get to the polling booth on time.

    Re: Duverge’s Law suggests that an NDP/Liberal coalition could defeat Ford. Clinton didn’t have that mixed blessing/hindrance of a left flank. It would take boldness but a Liberal / NDP government could emerge (as I’ve mentioned a few weeksago):
    1) it requires NDP candidates bowing out or redirecting voters in safe Liberal seats, in exchange for Liberal candidates bowing out in safe NDP seats.
    2) various cabinet positions contingent on vote totals by riding, Horvath as Premier….
    3) Horvath and Wynne would have to make an 11th hour statement on CBC, CTV detailing their vote sharing arrangement, to work ‘together for the betterment of all Ontarians’.

    Why that might not happen? It’s crass. Maybe even anti-democratic. I think Horvath might be happy to be the leader of the opposition OR gamble that an Orange Crush might emerge organically, ie. Bob Rae ’90 or Quebec ’11 rather than be openly strategic and possibly lose her job if it doesn’t work out.

    Would NDP/Liberal strategic voting work? Definitely.

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:

      KMMF,

      I don’t think that an ascending party will ever give a life-line to a party clearly headed for the basement. Horwath knows that. It’s up to progressives now. Either get in line behind Horwath or face a Ford government.

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