, 03.10.2019 10:53 AM

‪Abacus Data #LavScam shorter version: #CPC up, @JustinTrudeau down

Our friends at Campaign Research are out with a national omnibus today, too, I believe. I suspect they are going to show the same thing (if not worse).

Poll, methodology, etc. here.


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    Gord Tulk says:

    Pretty much since JT was elected leader I have argued that he was a front for the LPC – that no one in the partyvelite respected (or liked him for that matter) his abilities as a politician. He was a name brand that the party could use to win. Trudeau as a brand was free of the adscam and Chrétien paralysis legacies – a brand that scored far higher than the LPC.

    Now that it looks like the Trudeau brand is scoring significantly lower – and consistently so – than the LPC I look for the party elite and their “friends” in the MSM to begin greasing the skids to get him gone by June.

    The LPC elite has always been about winning. Because power is the product they provide their employers – the laurentian elite.

    JT and his managers have failed to both execute that power to save SNC-LAVALIN and to stay on track to remain IN power. He – and they – have to go.

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    RKJ says:

    This poll suggests that disaffected liberals are parking their vote with the Greens. If Sheer hopes to win, he’ll still need to present a reason to vote for his party, not simply wait for Canadians to vote against someone else.

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      whyshouldIsellyourwheat says:

      I doubt Conservatives mind if “left-wing” Liberals vote for the NDP or Green Party.

      The Conservatives aim to own the “affordability” issue, the working and middle class vote that doesn’t benefit from the Liberals redistribution of middle-class income to the very rich and the very poor.

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    Ronald O'Dowd says:


    How many times has Warren said that governments defeat themselves? In Justin’s case, Harper was already running his majority into the ground — and a charismatic, popular leader only added to Liberal momentum. Harper gave the Liberals government. Trudeau got them the majority.

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      RKJ says:


      Your comment that “Harper gave the liberals government, Trudeau got them the majority” holds for Sheer as well. Trudeau might give him a minority government, but Sheer will have to get his majority.

      This will require having some liberals vote Conservative – will see if Sheer can achieve this.

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        Ronald O'Dowd says:


        Absolutely fair. I see Scheer as more of a Harper-type personality. Remember how personally timid Harper was before becoming PM? The guy gained enormous confidence in office and today’s Harper, whether you like him or not, remains a guy who you have to reckon with. By the time he left office, he really was prime ministerial.

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        Cory Arsenault says:

        If JT doesn’t get a majority he’s screwed. If he only gets a minority, Scheer and the NDP will get together and call a LavScam inquiry.

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    Ronald O'Dowd says:

    I find this poll curious. It’s striking that PMO conduct, or lack thereof, is damaging the Liberal brand, while the leader’s numbers dip but much less so. A trend?

    IMHO, that’s supporters telegraphing an opening for this Prime Minister: come clean before the JC, allow JWR to testify across the board, apologize to Canadians and leave you know who in the dust. Also demonstrate genuine accountability by ordering PMO personnel to also testify. Do all that and a plurality of Canadians will offer a second chance. Don’t and self-evident electoral prospects will kick in come October.

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    not 1st says:


    CPC 35% (155 seats)
    LPC 33% (140 seats)

    Includes aggregate polls.

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    Karl-Milton Marx-Friedman says:

    – Fortunately, campaigns matter especially in the last few cycles.
    – While leaders are more important today, i.e. Governing from the Centre, it’s still anyones game. Trudeau has many rabbits he can pull out of his hat collection.
    – Yes, he should have apologized for the situation/his actions, it doesn’t cost him much but honestly, the sad thing is that this relatively small scandal is the one draw into Canadian politics outside of an election cycle, there is a lot else that’s going on that gets zero coverage…kind of tragic really.

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