06.24.2019 07:31 AM

Even a broken clock, etc.


14 Comments

  1. The shooting down of the drone is but slightly symptomatic of the elephant in the room: JCPOA withdrawal by the United States. It was that act by the Trump Administration that lit the fuse toward war with Iran.

    The Iranians will not accept ever increasing sanctions without retaliation. They will push Trump to his very limits — past the point where the United States has the luxury not to respond.

    IMHO, it will eventually come to blocking the Strait of Hormuz and that means war. Iran is hell bent on developing its nuclear option, just like North Korea, and nothing short of military action either by the United States, Israel, or with a combination of allies will impede that objective.

    When Trump killed the JCPOA, he set his nation on a course toward almost inevitable war with Iran.

    • The Doctor says:

      Probably true. Opposing that nuclear deal had become an article of faith among the American right. And of course, Obama’s negotiated it, so it’s ipso facto bad. And of course Trump is obsessed with tearing down anything and everything Obama accomplished, because Obama made fun of Trump at the White House Press Gallery Dinner back in the day, so . . . we may get a big-ass shooting war in the Persian Gulf because Donald Trump can’t tolerate being the butt of jokes at a boozy dinner. Awesome.

    • Fred from BC says:

      “When Trump killed the JCPOA, he set his nation on a course toward almost inevitable war with Iran”

      So be it. Barack Obama proved too cowardly to deal with this problem (just like Bill Clinton and North Korea, remember?), so Donald Trump will have to do it. There doesn’t need to be a war, Ronald… there only needs to be a *real* deal made with Iran, one that includes the crucial missing clause that transforms it from an utterly useless symbolic gesture into a legitimate, productive agreement: VERIFICATION OF COMPLIANCE.

      Without that, you have nothing. You have a document that isn’t worth the price of the paper it is printed on.

      And you sure as hell don’t “take their word for it” that they have stopped trying to build nuclear weapons, either. You go in and you *check* to make sure they have. The insane Mullahs must NEVER be allowed to get their hands on such weapons. Ever.

      Once they are gone, that’s an entirely different situation. Then we can talk about Iran possessing nuclear weaponry, but not before.

      • Ronald O'Dowd says:

        Fred,

        Point is, neither Iran nor the PDRK are even remotely interested in robust verification or even compliance. They both regard nuclear weapons as the ultimate regime life insurance policy.

        That means inevitable war on two fronts. And the latter will quite happily incinerate South Korea and Japan.

        • Fred from BC says:

          “That means inevitable war on two fronts. And the latter will quite happily incinerate South Korea and Japan.”

          I hope you’re wrong, Ronald. I just fear that you’re not.

          I know, given the information I’ve gotten over the years from two Iranian women I associate with, that they hate the Mullahs and are only waiting for an opportunity to get rid of them (they came close earlier this year). The North Koreans, one can only hope, have enough of a sense of self-preservation that they will one day dispose of the last Kim and sue for peace. We’ll see.

  2. Dork in East York says:

    It’s odd that HRC’s foreign policy would probably be more hawkish than Trump’s

    • Gord Tulk says:

      Not odd at all. Dems are always under pressure to be hawkish in order to compensate for their weak rhetoric on International issues. Look at JFK in Vietnam, ditto LBJ. And clinton in the Baltics.

      President Trump can afford to be less hawkish because his base has his back – at least early on. If the Iranians kill an American it will be a very different story.

      Also interesting that he was clear that he will not agree to Iran getting nuclear weapons on MTP this weekend. The sham deal that Obama/Kerry signed (not a treaty as it never was ratified by congress) provided a pathway for Iran to build nukes.

      • Ronald O'Dowd says:

        Gord,

        And by what means will Trump put the double genies back in the bottle? Sanctions haven’t got a prayer. That leaves only war. This is the big leagues with everything literally at stake? Think Trump has got what it takes? I’ve got serious doubts.

        • Gord Tulk says:

          Sanctions only solve the issue if it causes the overthrow of the regime. I nor you can say whether that could happen.

          What they do in the interim is decrease the ability of the mullahs sponsor terror and build nukes. And those are better than no sanctions.

          And I think trump/pompeo/Bolton are vastly better than Obama/Kerry/Rhodes who were clueless. Do you think the opposite?

          • Ronald O'Dowd says:

            Gord,

            Frankly, too early to tell but the proof will be in the pudding. If they don’t blow all of us to kingdom come, I will consider them a success.

  3. Martin says:

    Laurentian elite Ottawa professor type, an “expert” on the Middle East, was on Politics and Power on Friday. Vassy says I guess Trump was concerned about civilian casualties. Laurentian elite guy says, no, he never has shown that concern before. Vassy asks(and good for her), what makes you say that? He literally started to stammer.

    • Mark D says:

      For all his faults and lack of virtue, not to mention mishandling of the Iran file, Trump has been very consistent in opposing further U.S. intervention in foreign wars. Even within the Republican Party.

      It is a large reason why he was elected.

      I’m not surprised he refused. It’s the one area where he has been consistent as president. I am more surprised that his advisors nearly bent him to their will.

      • Ronald O'Dowd says:

        Mark,

        American foreign policy, whether Republican or Democrat is entirely based on a totally false premise: that countries will willingly give up the nuclear option. Only happened with South Africa and maybe Iraq and Libya. Won’t ever happen again in our lifetime.

      • The Doctor says:

        Especially given that Bolton is one of his advisors.

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