Musings —09.21.2019 01:09 PM—
Campaign Research has conducted an public opinion poll with 1030 adults that are eligible to vote in Ontario. This poll was conducted between September the 18th and 19th, 2019, using online surveys. Our release yesterday shows how the parties stack up. You can see those detailed results here: https://tinyurl.com/yxq9c27d
The “Voter Gap Analysis” gives us more insight into the commitment level of voters to each party, relative to one another.
This analysis clearly lays out what the “floors” and “ceilings” are, with respect to potential votes available to each party and it also allows us to look closer at each party’s “hard” and “soft” supporters (floors and ceilings).
As of today, the CPC and the LPC have a “vote ceiling” of 40% in Ontario. 32% of voters would consider voting for the NDP, while 31% would consider the GPC. The PPC has 2% committed and a ceiling of 10%.
Note that the CPC had 22% of their voters as “hard supporters” also referred to as the “floor”. These voters claim to be voting for the CPC and not considering any other party. The LPC had 14% of their voters as “hard supporters”, which are voting for the LPC and not considering any other party. This is also a good indicator that the CPC vote will turnout in significantly higher numbers.
The “light blue” category represents voters who claim that they will vote for that specific party but that they are also considering voting for another party and are not totally closed to switching their vote(s). You can see that half of the committed LPC vote is considering voting for another party while only 1/3rd of the CPC is considering another party.
The “green” category represents voters who claim to be Undecided as to who they will vote for but are exclusively considering only one party and the “pink” category represents voters who claim to be voting for another party but also claim to be the considering that specific party.
“The really big news coming out of the Voter Gap Analysis is not that the CPC is ahead of the LPC by 4% in Ontario. No, the big news is that the CPC vote floor is significantly higher than the LPC and that half of LPC voters in Ontario are considering another party (only 1/3rd of CPC is considering another party). This is very bad news for the LPC in vote-rich/riding-rich Ontario”, said Nick Kouvalis, Principal at Campaign Research Inc. Nick can be reached at 519-791-9663.
This online study was conducted by Campaign Research as part of its monthly omnibus study between Sept 18th and 19th, 2019, through an online survey of 1,030 randomly selected Ontario adults who are members of Maru/Blue’s online panel,Maru Voice Canada, and were provided with various incentives to respond. The panelists were selected to reflect Canada’s age, gender and regional distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size has an estimated margin of error (which measures sampling variability) of +/- 3.05%, 19 times out of 20.
The results have been weighted by education, age, gender, and region (and in Quebec, language) to match the population according to 2016 Census data. Certain areas or groups may be oversampled but have been weighted to reflect their proportion of Canada’s population. This is to ensure the sample is representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.
The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study:
“Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?”
*** Note that there are 490 Males and 541 Females that answered the gender question, which totals a sample of 1031. But 1 person did not complete the study and that is why we show a total sample of 1030.