09.21.2019 01:09 PM

Exclusive to Daisy Data™️: Campaign Research on why Trudeau is losing Ontario



CPC not only has a lead in Ontario, but also has significant advantages with their committed base of support compared to the LPC

Campaign Research has conducted an public opinion poll with 1030 adults that are eligible to vote in Ontario. This poll was conducted between September the 18th and 19th, 2019, using online surveys. Our release yesterday shows how the parties stack up. You can see those detailed results here: https://tinyurl.com/yxq9c27d

The “Voter Gap Analysis” gives us more insight into the commitment level of voters to each party, relative to one another.

This analysis clearly lays out what the “floors” and “ceilings” are, with respect to potential votes available to each party and it also allows us to look closer at each party’s “hard” and “soft” supporters (floors and ceilings).

As of today, the CPC and the LPC have a “vote ceiling” of 40% in Ontario. 32% of voters would consider voting for the NDP, while 31% would consider the GPC. The PPC has 2% committed and a ceiling of 10%.

Note that the CPC had 22% of their voters as “hard supporters” also referred to as the “floor”. These voters claim to be voting for the CPC and not considering any other party. The LPC had 14% of their voters as “hard supporters”, which are voting for the LPC and not considering any other party. This is also a good indicator that the CPC vote will turnout in significantly higher numbers.

The “light blue” category represents voters who claim that they will vote for that specific party but that they are also considering voting for another party and are not totally closed to switching their vote(s). You can see that half of the committed LPC vote is considering voting for another party while only 1/3rd of the CPC is considering another party.

The “green” category represents voters who claim to be Undecided as to who they will vote for but are exclusively considering only one party and the “pink” category represents voters who claim to be voting for another party but also claim to be the considering that specific party.

“The really big news coming out of the Voter Gap Analysis is not that the CPC is ahead of the LPC by 4% in Ontario. No, the big news is that the CPC vote floor is significantly higher than the LPC and that half of LPC voters in Ontario are considering another party (only 1/3rd of CPC is considering another party). This is very bad news for the LPC in vote-rich/riding-rich Ontario”, said Nick Kouvalis, Principal at Campaign Research Inc. Nick can be reached at 519-791-9663.

METHODOLOGY

This online study was conducted by Campaign Research as part of its monthly omnibus study between Sept 18th and 19th, 2019, through an online survey of 1,030 randomly selected Ontario adults who are members of Maru/Blue’s online panel,Maru Voice Canada, and were provided with various incentives to respond. The panelists were selected to reflect Canada’s age, gender and regional distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size has an estimated margin of error (which measures sampling variability) of +/- 3.05%, 19 times out of 20.

The results have been weighted by education, age, gender, and region (and in Quebec, language) to match the population according to 2016 Census data. Certain areas or groups may be oversampled but have been weighted to reflect their proportion of Canada’s population. This is to ensure the sample is representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study:

“Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?”

*** Note that there are 490 Males and 541 Females that answered the gender question, which totals a sample of 1031. But 1 person did not complete the study and that is why we show a total sample of 1030.

23 Comments

  1. Christoph Dolllis says:

    While I</ hope so, I am skeptical.

  2. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    Add to that Nik Nanos’s comments about his Quebec PC number and I’d call it the beginnings of a highly likely trend.

  3. JJ Gibbons says:

    Online polls are bullshit.

  4. Bill Malcolm says:

    Well, if true, should we expect Ontarians to shoot themselves in the foot again and vote right wing?

    Anything’s possible with these two bunches of mainstream galoots chasing votes. Nothing like a politer Doug running the country – we could all cheer from the rooftops as whims overpower policy.

    I’m sorry. No way I trust the Cons to end up acting any differently than harper if Scheer won. Barbaric Cultural Practices phone tip line? How non-racist is that?

    Bernier only just missed being Con leader. A screw-loose nutball in my view, but look at the support he had. Those delegates who chose him as #1 in the preferred voting list are still lurking out there, devoid of normal logic.

    Yeah, things are not good all around in this country. But I cannot see how one can equate a blackface gaffe or three with having the country run by Cons who have less than zero interest in the environment, and want to pump ever more ersatz oil. Don’t trust ’em, not a millimetre. Don’t trust the Liberals much more, but some.

    It was you, I believe, who published an environmental charter of rights not long ago. Think the Cons would agree with your take? It had more policy in a page than Scheer’s said on everything put together, especially on the environment. Now that you’re no longer associated with the Greens, do you still hold true to its tenets?

    • RKJ says:

      Bill, regarding your “pumping ersatz oil” comment, I trust you do not use oil energy yourself. Perhaps you choose to travel everywhere on a bicycle or by foot (if so, I salute you). Or, perhaps you prefer to have foreign oil come into Canada rather using Canadian oil for energy needs. Regarding your Harper comment, I agree – he engaged in “button pushing” and stereotyping and ended with a well deserved loss. Sadly, his replacement is making Canada a world wide laughing stock. That should be of great concern, even to Harper haters.

    • Kris says:

      Vapid accusation and desperation at play. Nothing to offer but party talking points.
      A single blackface event is “a gaffe” but multiple times is a trend.

    • Pedant says:

      How is opposition to barbaric practices racist? Please explain. I agree it was stupid politics but I don’t see how it is racist.

      You seem a little peeved, and I can understand why. The globalist Left and purveyors of anti-democratic and anti-free speech cultural Marxism and toppling everywhere. You really thought Canada could withstand the tide?

      • The “barbaric cultural practices” tipline was for to report immigrents (strongly implied to be Muslim immigrents) when there are just as many white Christian Canadian do terrible things: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/you-may-be-demented-23-5-year-sentence-for-sexually-abusive-evansburg-area-father-1.5290796

        • Fred from BC says:

          The operative words here are CULTURAL PRACTICES. The sexual abuse of children is not a CULTURAL PRACTICE of Christian Canadians, or anyone else, and you know it.

          Stop trying to derail every discussion you join with your inane, off-topic delusions.

        • Pedant says:

          You don’t seem to understand the difference between culture and race.

      • Vancouverois says:

        The point is that it was a dog whistle.

        Any truly barbaric cultural practices are already illegal in Canada – there’s no need for a separate “hotline”.

        By promising to set one up, Kellie Leitch was implying that there was, and trying to rally people to her by creating mass hysteria about it. She was appealing to all sorts of ugly stereotypes, and encouraging people to be afraid and suspicious that their darker skinned neighbours are just the sort of people who would engage in such practices.

        • Fred from BC says:

          “The point is that it was a dog whistle.”

          Exactly. It was clumsy and stupid, not racist. It was based on the fact that Canadians had *reluctantly* agreed with the Conservatives that Muslim women should show their faces when taking citizenship oaths, getting drivers licenses and medical cards, etc. This was taken by some (not me) as an indication that more of the same would also be welcomed, and it was not.

          (…what part of “reluctantly” did they not understand, I wonder?)

          I remember that day well, in fact. I remember thinking that I wished I had a way to contact the party and advise them to stand back and take no further action, then stopping myself with a, “wait, what am I thinking? They *know* what they’re doing…they have professional strategists for that! They certainly don’t need any advice from a guy like me who isn’t even a party member. Never mind, then…”

          (yeah, I was wrong)

          To this day, part of me thinks that Stephen Harper had simply had enough of being PM, and just wanted to move on.

  5. Miles Lunn says:

    Nanos shows a big one day drop for Liberals and its a 3 day rolling poll so I would be worried if Liberals on this too. Also check out Ontario and Quebec numbers too. Cannot give them out as paywalled (only $4 a month), but both are interesting. Even Mainstreet where Liberals are still ahead showed a drop too albeit smaller than Nanos and it is a 3 day rolling poll. Its not over by any means but not looking good for Liberals. Still if Tories win a plurality, Liberals probably remain in government, but NDP and Greens should if this happens make clear they will only prop up Liberals if Trudeau resigns and they choose a new leader. If not then we can have another election. After all Israel and Spain had two this year and unlike us looks like second won’t resolve things so maybe both will have a third. Still all joking aside, Liberals should be worried. This is what happens when you oversell and underperform. Its what happens when you look for a savior. Bland may not gain you a lot of votes, but has long staying power. John Tory was elected before Trudeau and still has very high approval ratings so someone bland like Garneau or Freeland may not get a big boost initially, but I somehow suspect if either were PM, the Liberals would be well on their way to a second term and only question would be on size of majority.

  6. Des says:

    Does anyone else notice the numbers in the City of Ottawa?

    • Des says:

      Actually, I just noticed that this report has “Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario”, “Liberal Party of Ontario”, “Green Party of Ontario”, etc.

  7. Max says:

    Who would have thought our dumb, shallow hypocrite of a Prime Minister would be the one to undo much of the progress since Martin Luther King? The “Rich White Privilege” shield is essentially a “get out of jail” free card…. a “free pass”. Get ready to hear a lot of ” I didn’t know…. I had a ‘Blind Spot’… just like Justin Trudeau.” Trudeau’s “blindspot” didn’t allow him to realize it was grossly insensitive at best, and racist at worst, to sneer at an Indigenous woman “Thank you for your donation.” How could he know about his Residential School blind spot having been educated at private schools? Or that there is no mercury poisoned water in wooden drink boxes that he imports for his children?

    And if the “Blind Spot” defense doesn’t fit, simply go with Plan ‘B’. The “I was too embarrassed to disclose it to anybody.” Got an old shoplifting conviction in your past? I hid it because I was embarrassed. Just like Justin. Old drinking and driving conviction (at 29 years old)? “Too embarrassed!” Wore a white hood to a Halloween Party last year? “To embarrassed!” Photo of a candidate with his hand on a women’s bare chest? “Neither embarrassed nor a blind spot, ’cause “When your a star, they let you do it!”

    Upon winning the 2015 Election, Trudeau smugly said “Canada’s Back”. If Canadians vote for the Village Idiot again, the world will say “Heeeee’s Baaaaaaack”. And our entire country will be seen as less progressive, less authentic, and a nation of hypocrits. Just like Justin.

  8. Alistair McLaughlin says:

    I bet Telford, Butts et. al. are working the phones furiously right now, trying to get their wounded leader an appearance with Greta Thunberg before she flies back to Europe. If it happens, it will be a desperate, transparent, pathetic attempt to have some of Thunberg’s halo effect rub off on their falling star, not to mention a Hail Mary shot at reframing the election in terms of a single wedge issue. It will fail, just like Paul Martin’s knee-jerk proposal to open the Constitution to remove the Notwithstanding clause – announced in the middle of a televised debate of all places – failed to revive his campaign.

    Trudeau might still win this election with a minority, but that will depend entirely on Tory and NDP failures, not on his own efforts. (Never underestimate the ability of politicians to score own goals. Justin has no monopoly on that, trust me.) Justin’s brand is too terminally damaged to ever again rally voters on its own. He has become a global laughing stock, and his star will never rise again. He must now rely on the Opposition to badly screw up.

    • Fred from BC says:

      “It will fail, just like Paul Martin’s knee-jerk proposal to open the Constitution to remove the Notwithstanding clause – announced in the middle of a televised debate of all places – failed to revive his campaign.”

      That was awesome, that one…especially the stunned reactions of his own people, who clearly had no idea he was planning it. I swear I saw one visibly flinch…

  9. Douglas W says:

    Liberals own the “6” (Toronto) and its 24 federal ridings. Libs are also going to take its fair share of the 905 — most likely all of Mississauga and Brampton. There’s another 11 ridings in their pockets. After that — who knows? Maybe seats around Ottawa (5). They’ll win in Kingston, and a few in London. Maybe a couple in and around Windsor. Thinking the Liberals will come out of Ontario with at least 55 seats. Not bad. Not as bad as what the pollsters are letting on.

    • Paul says:

      I realize lawn signs are not an accurate tell-tale of voter intention. But, in Peel region, the blue signs greatly outnumber the red ones. I am not sure an orange or green one is to be seen anywhere.

  10. Max says:

    Douglas W, what do you mean by “the pollsters are letting on”?

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