04.22.2020 08:12 AM

Trudeau popularity way, way up

Here.

I suspect Donald Trump is making him look pretty darn good, in comparative terms. But by all means, keep singing the praises of Trump, dumb Canadian conservatives.

64 Comments

  1. Douglas W says:

    PM JT must be wishing he could go to the polls right now.
    200 seats would be in reach.

  2. joe says:

    Thomas Mulcair was critical of Trudeau in today’s Toronto Sun

    “Trudeau has replaced Parliament with press conferences.”

    “He can take as long as he wants to answer, in English and in French. By the time he winds down a four-minute answer, you’ve forgotten the question. No one can fire back.”

    “These virtual press conferences are stage-managed affairs. Trudeau is all alone and cannot really be challenged. He has the ice to himself and there’s no goalie.”

    https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/mulcair-canadians-deserve-government-accountability-especially-now

    And where is Mr Jagmeet Singh?

  3. PK says:

    This is off topic, and I need a place to write, so I figured right here with Mr. Trudeau’s popularity rising. I’m not a detractor, I’ll admit to having supported the Trudeau Brand since birth. I was talking with my friend, he had cancer, and has physically recovered from treatment. Had a career, education – a good earner, and had made it alone without family friends or nepotism paving the way – did everything the right way, taking chances and making it on his own, from a hard working immigrant family. He had always been a fan of Trudeau as well, and also supportive, like I am, of the recent crisis policy, and even his performance during the pandemic – measured, calming, and consistent – This is not a slight at the Liberals, but at the existing system regarding cancer recovery, employment laws to protect cancer patients from discrimination, and general attitudes in society

    Let me tell you this – People who have cancer need CERB – they need an emergency benefit, they need special treatment, they need an emergency benefit, they need for their governments to do something about systemic discrimination they experience when trying to get back to life, when they are dealing with financial collapse from cancer treatment, if they are lucky enough to survive – they need that desperately –

    Know what they get? Nothing, and now my friend is angry, because discrimination after cancer treatment held him back, and now there’s nothing for him because, the hardest worker you ever met got sick for a while, and there wasn’t any emergency benefit, nothing to prevent bankruptcy, nothing to mitigate discrimination due to bankruptcy, caused by cancer, and systemic discrimination and ignorance – nothing for them, and nothing now when the world closes down –

    So when you get your CERB benefit be grateful, because the cancer patients who had their surgeries delayed, and have months, or years of recovery ahead of them, if they survive, there’s no emergency benefit for them, no legislation to mitigate discrimination from the bankruptcies a lot will suffer, and there’s no financial injection, there’s nothing to prevent discrimination when they apply for work either

    so be grateful that when your world collapsed they were there to help you. You suffered something less dire, and they paid you to stay home – people on chemo are taking the bus and going bankrupt.

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:

      PK,

      Damned right. Thanks.

      My mom got breast cancer, the first time, in 1967 and the morons at parties actually thought it was contagious. Today, I guess morons still remain morons…

  4. Well, this Conservative won’t be praising Trump, even at his funeral.

    • Dean Sherratt says:

      I suspect that no Canadian Conservatives are praising Trump. he is unpopular across the political spectrum in Canada. Trudeau, like all the Premiers, is getting a rebound on the polls by means of commanding media attention and taking full credit for the measures they are putting in place. It is natural for Canadians to line up behind those they perceive as fighting this pestilence. Now I doubt that this will last till the next federal election which I hope is some time from today. But the CPC will have to start the campaign behind the Liberals with a tall hill in front of them. But that is politics.

      • Mark D says:

        Of the ten provincial premiers, I believe Jason Kenney and Doug Ford have been the two who came across in the media as the most critical of President Trump’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic.

  5. I hope MacKay has got my favourite strategist, brother Norquay, on board.

  6. the real Sean says:

    Yes, people who are handing out money are often popular. They are particularly popular at the precise moment they are handing out the money.

  7. Doug says:

    The electorate always rallies around the leader during a crisis.

    Once again Trudeau has horseshoes as the Covid response has largely been a provincial matter. The Conservatives have a lame duck leader.

    The polls could be markedly different in a few months with high unemployment and government drowning in debt.

    • Fred from BC says:

      “The electorate always rallies around the leader during a crisis.”

      The “rally around the flag” effect. Happens in wartime, too.

      “The polls could be markedly different in a few months with high unemployment and government drowning in debt.”

      I’m thinking the same. Do you think Trudeau might engineer his own defeat to take advantage of this? All’s fair in love and war…and politics…

      • Doug says:

        Not until the Conservatives have a leader with a seat in the House. I could see Trudeau’s handlers going for an election not long after that.

        I’m still holding out for new entrants to the Conservative leadership race. The country is in its biggest mess since at least the debt crisis of the late 80’s to mid 90’s. Trudeau has no leadership skills whatsoever, let alone the most important which is the ability to make tough, unpopular decisions. Looking good, celebrity and rattling off irrelevant wokebot comments may win elections, but it absolutely will not pull the country out of debt and stagnation.

  8. PK says:

    That friend of mine was a very strong professional, and had even worked harder physically – the hardest worker and had made it alone, with no family to pull strings, because he worked harder to be the best at whatever he did – the society he worked hard for failed him when he got sick – lucky they’re there for you –

  9. joe long says:

    With Trudeau giving out aid everyday in bits and pieces with little oversight or scrutiny, it’s obvious he’s doing this to bolster his image.

    Question. If COVID-19 subsides by June and his numbers hold up, will he call an early election for late July or August?

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:

      Joe,

      IMHO, more like late October, very early November but no later than that.

      • Douglas W says:

        Campaign kicks off after Labour Day.
        Liberal pitch: look how we’ve taken care of everyone. More to come, because we’re gracious and caring.

        Conservatives’ pitch: here’s how we’ll help the economy + Canadians turn the corner.

        More appealing message: the Liberals.
        Massive majority.

  10. Fred from BC says:

    I wouldn’t plan the parade just yet…

    (from Johns Hopkins University)

    ————————————-

    Referring to the CSSE data from April 16th, variations in mortality appear dramatic:

    Australia – 6,462 Confirmed – 63 Deaths = CFR 1.0%
    Belgium – 36,138 C – 5,163 D = 14.3%
    Canada – 30,436 C 1229 D = 4.0%
    Greece – 2,207 C 105 D = 4.7%
    Guinea – 438 C 1 D = 0.2%
    India – 12,759 C 423 D = 3.3%
    Israel – 12,758 C 142 D = 1.1%
    Italy – 168,941 C 22,170 D = 13.1%
    Mexico – 5,847 C 449 D = 7.7%
    Netherlands – 29,381 C 3,326 D = 11.3%
    New Zealand – 1,401 C 9 D = 0.6%
    Russia – 27,938 C 232 D = 0.8%
    Rwanda – 138 C 0 D = 0.0%
    Switzerland – 26,732 C 1,281 D = 4.8%
    UK – 104,135 C 13,755 D =13.2%
    US – 648,788 C 30,920 D = 4.7%.

    Remarkably, the above data all refer to the same virus. The CFR ranges from 0% to 14%. Belgium is on the high end of the spectrum at an apocalyptic 14%. Canada is doing well at 4%, but no where near as well as New Zealand at 0.6%, or Australia at 1.0%. Surprisingly perhaps, Rwanda, with zero fatalities, appears to be the safest place to ride out the COVID-19 storm.

    ———————————–

    I see they left out France (who also have a really high death rate) for some reason. Anyway, if Justin Trudeau had a large, well-funded opposition party like the Democrats, as well as 90%+ of the news media *and* Hollywood attacking him nonstop every day, I don’t think he’d be faring nearly so well. Instead, we have a fawning news media who Trudeau has given *millions of dollars* to, two of our ‘opposition’ parties propping him up and the Conservatives led by an ineffectual temporary leader being largely ignored my the media (except when they’re writing editorials attacking him so being so ineffectual).

    4% vs 4.7%…are we supposed to be ecstatic about that 0.7 percent difference? I know I’m not. We’ll see what the public really thinks after it’s all over and he stops dishing out billions of dollars to the unemployed and small businesses.

    (and please note that I’m not faulting him for what he has done so far…I’m just saying that his handling of this whole thing hasn’t been especially impressive right from the start)

    • The variation in death rate is due to the variation in the testing rate, not variation in the disease.

      Your blindness to Trunps profound personal failings is beyond me.

    • Peter says:

      Fred, are you really suggesting we should be judging the effectiveness of our political leaders against infection and death rates? If so, maybe we should put the Guinean leader in charge of the whole world. Surely he or she would make it all go away fast.

      I’m not crazy about JT, whose strengths run more to parades, apologies and bromides on how hate is not the answer than to the resolve, honesty and inspiration this situation calls for, but let’s not fall into the “Justin, lies, people die” nonsense that is plaguing our neighbour. He’s our PM, not Lord of the Sun and Moon.

      • The Doctor says:

        Deaths per capita are a much more relevant stat than the one trotted out above, because of the testing problems noted by the other posters. On that metric, the US is doing badly in comparison to many of its peer countries.

        • Fred from BC says:

          “Deaths per capita are a much more relevant stat than the one trotted out above, because of the testing problems noted by the other posters.”

          Maybe, but we won’t have accurate numbers on that until it’s all over, will we?

          (for example, you’re not believing the numbers that came out of China, are you?)

          Also, I think treatment and recovery rates are pretty important as well; I’m much less concerned about being infected than I am about recovering from it *if* it happens, and most people who have a higher-than-average risk of infection would probably agree with me.

          “On that metric, the US is doing badly in comparison to many of its peer countries.”

          On that metric, yes…but they are far from being the worst.You know as well as I do that there are a lot of different factors at play here, from demographics to geography to climate to population density to freedom of movement etc etc. Initial reaction time is also a big factor, as is plain old luck.

          Cities, states and nations are already starting to open up their economies again. Is it too soon? We’ll know pretty quickly how that plays out.

      • Fred from BC says:

        “Fred, are you really suggesting we should be judging the effectiveness of our political leaders against infection and death rates? ”

        Nope, just responding to more of the same TDS bullshit that seems so prevalent here.

        “but let’s not fall into the “Justin, lies, people die” nonsense that is plaguing our neighbour. ”

        Let’s apply the *same standard* to Trump that we do to Trudeau, is all I’m saying.

        (I’m sorry, Peter…I thought my last line might make that clear. I don’t write as well as you, sadly…)

        That’s all I’ve EVER said on the subject, and yet the usual childish whiners here respond with immediate accusations of “Trump lover” or some such other nonsense (see , that’s what happens when you don’t stay in school long enough to learn the basic logic and reason skills that would allow you to not only engage in an actual debate, but to emerge from it *not* looking like a complete fool). When your views or opinions are challenged, defend them…don’t just lash out like a child throwing a temper tantrum.

        • Trump just suggested infusing people with light and injecting people with disinfectant.

          https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1253448500676898818?s=19

          You are a complete fool for not seeing that Trump is an utter fool.

          • Robert White says:

            Fred is a partisan zealot, but he is smart, and well read. I, for one, don’t view him as a fool. He’s just a partisan zealot loaded with bias towards Trudeau & Liberals. In brief, he drank the Jonestown Kool-Aid.

            I’m a Liberal, Fred.

            RW

          • Ronald O'Dowd says:

            Robert,

            I think we’re on safe ground in saying that Fred isn’t a Liberal.

            Darwin, you might want to change your assessment as it’s not on target. I don’t agree at all with his view of the 2020 election but it’s not impossible that he could end up right. Few among us called 2015 correctly so who knows, I might be a one-hit wonder come November 2020.

          • Fred from BC says:

            “Fred is a partisan zealot, but he is smart, and well read.”

            (thanks…I think?…)

            In actual fact, though, I have rarely been ‘zealous’ about anything political. I voted for Jody Wilson-Raybould in the last federal election because I couldn’t support Andrew Scheer as leader of the CPC (and said so here, more than once). I also…wait for it…voted NDP here in the last provincial election for the first (and hopefully *only*) time in my life.

            (and yeah, okay, I had to get really drunk and really stoned to temporarily lower my IQ enough to do so, but yes: I voted NDP)

            So no, I’m not a partisan zealot…I’m far too pragmatic for that. I do* loathe* Liberal politicians, though, because I’m a gun owner and I will NEVER EVER forgive them for what they have done to me (and continue to do, every time they see an opportunity to buy more votes from a gullible Canadian public), but I don’t feel the same about Liberal voters or supporters.

            “I’m a Liberal, Fred.”

            I know, Robert. Could be worse…you could be NDP (if you could find a way to lose enough brain cells)…

  11. Derek Pearce says:

    a) bump is of course temporaryily because of crisis/money dole-out
    b)he is calm. he is not hysterical. he is not all over the goddamned map– he is not Trump, as you said. it makes him very, very hard for Conservatives to target.
    c) he has a VERY strong capable team who’re also in the public eye
    d) because of the above he has all the Premiers onside
    e) in general, the more those “I wanna talk to Covid’s manager cuz I wanna haircut” conservatives in the States keep up that ridiculous deathly BS up, the better he’ll look. American radical libertarian death cult=better Liberal Cdn victory. Plain n simple. We love to feel superior to Americans, but when it’s put plain out in front of us in terms of PEOPLE DYING, it plays into our inherent-small-l-liberal nationalism even more. Scheer or McKay will have almost zilch to do with our next election result.
    e)

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:

      Derek,

      We can call three strikes and you’re out easily enough. It’s much harder to call three chances: 2015, 2019 and who knows when the third try comes for Trudeau.

      But yes, it will be all about this Prime Minister. MacKay has an uphill climb, no question about it. It won’t be easy to beat Trudeau but it can be done. However, MacKay needs to seriously look at bring on further strategic blood because so far, the right recipe for strategic heft is still lacking.

  12. Lou says:

    His daily briefings have turned into campaign messages. Scripted, on point, and quietly biting to any that disagree. I am fully confidant that the lack-of-brain trust behind him (Butts etc) are using this tradgedy as a campaign tool and they will call an early election. Its shameful. Comparing him to Trump is a distraction. Just because 1 pile is steaming and 1 s cool still means there are 2 piles of shit present.

    • Doug says:

      The COVID response is mostly provincial. The Feds screwed up the only measure under their jurisdiction, border controls. Unfortunately, most Canadians don’t understand the split between federal and provincial jurisdiction. Trudeau is popular as he continues to opiate the electorate with free money, with the opposition and media providing little push back.

  13. The Doctor says:

    I have to agree. Gerald Butts’s advice to JT is clearly: just write cheques. Big ones, and lots of them.

    • Martin says:

      I would assume Butts is back in the saddle but is that for sure?

    • Pedant says:

      We already have an EI program. Why was this additional helicopter money needed? Why is a job loss today more “worthy” of extra taxpayer cash than a job loss last year?

      • As it was repeatedly pointed out by the NDP, even before it only really covered half the people who lost jobs because most part time workers didn’t make enough money to qualify.

      • Ronald O'Dowd says:

        Pedant,

        But not everyone is eligible for EI. Think self-employed, maybe even contract workers but I haven’t checked. Seasonal workers also can’t get EI if I remember correctly?

  14. Doug says:

    The COVID response is mostly provincial. The Feds screwed up the only measure under their jurisdiction, border controls. Unfortunately, most Canadians don’t understand the split between federal and provincial jurisdiction. Trudeau is popular as he continues to opiate the electorate with free money, with the opposition and media providing little push back.

    • Derek Pearce says:

      Some of us have been unemployed (excuse me, MANY OF US I meant) for almost 6 weeks now and qualify for EI (because we’ve paid into the fund our working lives) as I thankfully do, or don’t qualify but have mortgages and shit to pay. Fuck off with your “opiate the electorate” bullshit. Must be nice to be so comfy Mr. Patrician. I almost want your RRSP to crash n burn, but not quite, because that means my own parents’ savings would too.

  15. Pedant says:

    Well yes, a $200 billion deficit worth of helicopter money dropped like confetti to everyone who jumps for it, with absolutely no oversight procedures to prevent fraud, will tend to be popular with the masses.

    And I suspect Trump’s temporary immigration moratorium will push his approval rating above 50%.

  16. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Look, let’s get real here: this is the worst Depression in world history in the making. Someone, anyone, please explain not the obvious reasons for financial assistance but the justification for taxing those benefits, because in this calamity of the highest order, clawing back the dough is just monumentally stupid, politically speaking.

  17. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    I’m standing with Rempel Garner on Sloan’s remarks.

    What she deserves for speaking out goes way beyond praise and admiration. She makes Canadians proud of her for her unmitigated stand based on profound core values and principles. Thank you.

  18. Martin says:

    But I saw an analysis on P and P last night that the bump in popularity is NOT resulting in an equivalent significant bump in party support. Bunch of free rent going out today. I think it could end up being 300 billion plus.

  19. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    The Fed effectively are know-nothings, using QE during reasonably good economic times to weaken the economy and now since mid-March, to destroy it.

    You can’t repudiate the business cycle: when the economy is boomimg you raise rates in orderly fashion to check inflation. The Fed did, for the most part, the exact opposite. And now it’s QE To Infinity to maximize the debt and bring on a full-fledged Depression of a magnitude never seen before…

    First Weimar Germany, then Zimbabwe followed by Argentina and Venezuela. Three guesses as to who comes next by destroying the USD, via hyperinflationary money printing.

  20. Shawn says:

    I’m a nobody, going nowhere, worth nothing.

  21. Pedant says:

    How many people receiving the helicopter are living paycheque to paycheque? Did Socks carry out the necessary analysis before exploding the national debt by a third in the span of 2 months?

    I made sure to have a rainy day fund in an event just like that which is occurring right now. Why should I be punished (since people like me are the ones paying for this largesse) while irresponsible people are rewarded with more free cash?

    I don’t think you recognize the longterm consequences of disincentivizing work and ambition.

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:

      Pedant,

      It’s called an almost surefire re-election strategy. Hope MacKay has something similar. Ain’t politics crass now. LOL.

  22. Pedant says:

    How many people receiving the helicopter cash are living paycheque to paycheque? Did Socks carry out the necessary analysis before exploding the national debt by a third in the span of 2 months?

    I made sure to have a rainy day fund in an event just like that which is occurring right now. Why should I be punished (since people like me are the ones paying for this largesse) while irresponsible people are rewarded with more free cash?

    I don’t think you recognize the longterm consequences of disincentivizing work and ambition.

  23. Mark D says:

    With the social distancing regulations in place? A snap election would backfire quickly.

    • Mark,

      Didn’t go too well for May but went exceedingly well for BOJO. So who really knows. I wouldn’t bet the farm either way.

      • Douglas W says:

        There’s currency in practicing the politics of patience.
        Mr. Chretien knew that, full well.

        Besides, from your deep political background, you know that, in campaign terms, a 2-inch putt can go sideways, PDQ.

        Liberals should wait until the Fall or even next Spring before pulling the trigger.
        BQ and NDP will take turns, proppin’ them up until then.

        • Ronald O'Dowd says:

          Douglas,

          I like this argument.

          But forgive me when I get confused what with my party changing: at the time, I thought it beyond foolish for Michael to prop up Harper and even worse for Jack to abstain. As for the Bloc, they’ll prop up just about anyone, provided that the price was/is right. This PM’s eyes are already wide open to that eventuality.

          • Douglas W says:

            None of the party leaders (current/future) terrify JT.
            Luckiest PM, ever.

          • Fred from BC says:

            “As for the Bloc, they’ll prop up just about anyone, provided that the price was/is right. This PM’s eyes are already wide open to that eventuality.”

            That still galls me, Ronald. Stephen Harper had them on the ropes, and Justin Trudeau nursed them back to health. Shameful.

          • Ronald O'Dowd says:

            Fred,

            Because I’m full of myself I will remind people that I posted on my then blog, Justin Onward and Upward a post called Bloc Rennaissance?

            But remember Fred that the BQ did prop up Harper in 2006. My view is that Quebecers loved Jack and disliked his successor soooo…they simply reverted back to an old habit although Justin did better in French Quebec than we all expected. The Duclos win was quite something.

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