05.12.2020 01:42 PM

Why Biden will win and Trump will lose

49 Comments

  1. Douglas W says:

    Hope you’re right.
    But I don’t see Trump and his hardcore followers, going quietly into the night.

    Could get quite ugly, after election night.

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:

      Douglas,

      If he’s President-Elect, Biden will have to get up on that tank just like Yeltsin did.

  2. Jim R says:

    Many of us (like me) laughed when Trump ran to become the Republican presidential nominee in 2016.
    Many of us (again looking in the mirror) laughed when Trump ran to become President of the US in 2016.

    So far Trump has had the last laugh.
    And if people take for granted Trump’s loss to Biden in November, well, Trump may yet have another last laugh.

    Given Biden’s age and the possibility that he’s in the early stages of dementia, the VP pick is going to be more important than ever. As such, if Biden picks a far(ish) left (at least by US standards), AOC-type Democrat as his running mate, it may well be game over. Unfortunately, he’s already massively narrowed the field of potential picks by saying he’s going to pick a woman.
    I don’t put it past Biden and Democrats to again shoot themselves in the foot.

    • Steve Teller says:

      Very true, re VP. Trying to fill a quota or be “woke”, rather than picking the best candidate who will have the widest appeal, could be the death knell for Biden’s campaign.

      • Max says:

        Steve, are you saying the best candidate with widest appeal would NOT be a woman? If so, why not? And who do you believe the best candidate for VP would be then?

        • Steve T says:

          Nice try – that’s not what I said, and you know it.

          My point, like Jim R’s above, is that pre-determining that you WILL be selecting a particular gender, race, religion, etc.. is folly.

          • Fred from BC says:

            ” pre-determining that you WILL be selecting a particular gender, race, religion, etc.. is folly.”

            That’s for sure.

            If those are your criteria, then you’re not actually looking for competence or suitability for the role as your primary concern: you’re looking for gender, race, religion etc. If you *do* somehow manage to find the ‘best’ candidate, it’s just dumb luck.

    • Mark D says:

      I know I sound like a broken record on this topic, but my experience following U.S. politics for over 40 years and having American friends who are part of the political establishment across the spectrum (Dem, GOP, Independent), in both Washington and in various states, is that Canadians across the spectrum are notoriously bad at calling U.S. presidential elections.

      We are often good at calling elections at the state level, or when it comes to the U.S. House of Representatives or Senate, but are politically tone deaf when it comes to presidential elections.

      This is not suprising given that we have nothing comparable in Canadian parliamentary elections.

      So I am going to go with history on this one:

      Trump is re-elected.

      Democrats expand their lead in the House

      Democrats hold or expand their lead among state governors and state legislatures.

      U.S. Senate remains a toss-up until the fall.

  3. Steve T says:

    Both are good, but the first one is obviously way too long for TV. So where will it air? Presumably online, and only for those who go looking for it (ie – existing supporters).

    Second one is much tighter, and focuses on the real issue in my view: character. You can be naive, you can get things wrong, and perhaps people will forgive you. But if you are an a-hole to everyone, you are toast.

  4. the real Sean says:

    Not so sure… I find it a bit busy and overpacked. You’ve got to prove your point / hit’em between the eyes in 15 seconds or less to make an impact these days. I’d suggest a simple voice over of Trump transposed with the exact dates and statistics IE line graph moving upwards while he’s speaking. Avoid media quotes / citations. Joe and Jane frontporch / undecided might not trust established media but they’ll trust simple cas. counts.

    I still think the most effective negative ad ever produced against a sitting government was the Tories 2006 “Entitlements”. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMigqLziqPk Its so simple and just re-affirmed / more *importantly validated* voters stored beliefs as nurtured through the campaign. Its a great model for future ads for any libs / cons / dems / reps.

    • Fred from BC says:

      “Not so sure… I find it a bit busy and overpacked.”

      It is. It also just begs for the Trump campaign to release their own version with Pelosi and Cuomo and all the other Democrats (including Biden) downplaying the possibility and/or effects of this crisis (people who live in glass houses…).

      And claiming that Donald Trump’s response “destroyed the economy”? Seriously? NOT the virus that forced everyone to stay home…just Trump’s response to it? So, can they point to another country anywhere in the world right now with a booming economy because they have a leader who DID do things right? No? Then what are you yapping on about?

      I’m sorry…as an ad, this one fails. Try again. Be smarter next time.

      • Ronald O'Dowd says:

        Fred,

        The American economy has been steadily and drastically weakening since January 2019. That’s why The Fed reversed course and stopped its rate tightening cycle.

        Presidents get to wear the economy they have in November and Trump will get to wear this one.

        • Fred from BC says:

          “The American economy has been steadily and drastically weakening since January 2019.”

          That’s not what the public saw though…they saw the lowest unemployment figures in 50 years, with more blacks and Latinos working and money flowing everywhere. Yes, the people who understand economics (like you) can see behind the curtain and know what is really going on, but the general public doesn’t…they just know that they are getting a paycheck for the first time in a long time.

          “Presidents get to wear the economy they have in November and Trump will get to wear this one.”

          And the leaders of every other western nation are in the exact same situation. I still laugh at the people who think Trump will be blamed for the current US economy but Trudeau, Johnson, Macron, Merkel etc *won’t* be blamed for theirs. Seriously, people?

  5. Walter says:

    The problem anyone in Canada has in criticizing Trump – that the Canada is worse.

    Trudeau was slower to react to COVID. Trudeau broke more laws (many more).

    An American can argue that Trump is far from perfect – but nobody in Canada can argue that Trudeau is better than Trump.

    • The Doctor says:

      At least Trudeau didn’t just float a wacko conspiracy theory on twitter that a prominent cable news host is a murderer. He’s got that at least.

      Maybe that difference helps Trudeau with that “credibility” thingy.

  6. Joseph says:

    Yesterday Biden said he had no knowledge of the unmasking of Gen Flynn.
    Today the report came out that he was one of the individuals that made one of the requests.
    How could he forget that?

    • The Doctor says:

      It is my hope that you and all Trump supporters will continue to obsess about the subject of your post every day from now until November 3rd.

      Because I’m sure that Obamagate/Flynn/Unmasking will be the Number One ballot issue for Americans dealing with a global pandemic and the worst economic downturn since the 1930s.

      Well, either that issue or whether Morning Joe really murdered that intern.

      • Chris Sigvaldason says:

        I’d be worried if I was a Democrat. It’s one thing to point to right-wing conspiracy theories and Fox blather, but it is entirely different when actual documents and evidence start appearing.

        • The Doctor says:

          Yes, the Great Awakening is surely at hand.

        • Bill says:

          The numerous people looking for the unmasking of Flynn only points to the concern so many people had about him. It actually points to his apparent guilt rather than some ridiculous conspiracy.

          • Fred from BC says:

            “The numerous people looking for the unmasking of Flynn only points to the concern so many people had about him.”

            Oh, of course. And the fact that what they did was an ILLEGAL abuse of their authority doesn’t matter at all, right Bill?

            (wow…fascist, much?)

            “It actually points to his apparent guilt rather than some ridiculous conspiracy.”

            Yeah, it couldn’t be related to all the Obama/Clinton dirty tricks he was aware of, right? Couldn’t be a desperate attempt to prevent the very investigations that now threaten to expose their malfeasance, could it?

            Is that how left-wingers determine guilt, then…by how many people believe someone is guilty? You’d think they would have learned something after Russia/Mueller and the Ukraine fiascos.

          • The Doctor says:

            Exactly Bill, And then there’s that little factual thingy that there’s actually nothing illegal about unmasking, that it is a perfectly legal practice that happens all the time and has happened frequently under all US administrations — including Trump’s. But you won’t hear that from the Trump supporters on this website.

          • Fred from BC says:

            “And then there’s that little factual thingy that there’s actually nothing illegal about unmasking, that it is a perfectly legal practice that happens all the time ”

            Yes, and just like shooting people, you not only need to be authorized to do it but possess the proper legal justification.

            From Daniel Hoffman, former CIA station chief (via the Washington Post):

            ———————————–

            Hoffman also said that although “unmasking … sounds awfully nefarious,” it’s “just learning the identify of the U.S. person involved when you have a legitimate reason to do it.”

            According to Hoffman, unmasking is difficult to do. He said “the controls are extraordinarily rigorous from a legal standpoint” and that he knows from firsthand experience there are many regulations and requirements in order to be granted the request.

            ———————————-

            Get a grip, Doc…

          • Bill says:

            To start with, you right wingers are the fascists. And Ukraine fiasco? The only fiasco was the chickenshit Republicans turning a blind eye.
            You strike me as one of those thick headed ideological types who would vote not guilty if Trump murdered someone. Unlike the afore mentioned Doctor, I think you need to get a grip.

    • Daryl Gordon says:

      https://www.foxnews.com/politics/flynn-unmasking-samantha-power-testimony

      Samantha Power testified under oath to not having any recollection of unmasking Flynn, but it was just revealed that she had in fact did just that. Several times. Could be problematic when asked (under oath) to clarify.

      Every document release brings Mueller witnesses testifying to “no evidence of collusion ” and then in public stating the complete opposite. Even the vaunted Democrat document hack was revealed under oath (Crowdstrike exec) to have no concrete evidence of Russian involvement.

      Pack of lies unravelling right before our eyes.

  7. Yet Another Calgarian says:

    Europe is stumbling towards a sovereign debt crisis, China may have their shadow banking system implode as their exports crater and New York city could lose control of its budget to the state government on July 1st as they can’t seem to produce a balanced budget as required by law.

    There will probably be enough economic related drama ongoing come this fall that playing the who said what game on COVID is going to make the Dems look especially dumb given all their statements are also part of the record and are just as bad.

  8. Wes W says:

    Biden is going to be fighting to keep both himself and Obama from the criminal charges regarding trumps Russia investigation. I don’t think he will be president.

  9. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    I don’t know where the Flynn investigation is going but either way, do something about it and make sure Americans know nothing but the truth. And then deal with the factors appropriately.

    From Day One, I’ve wondered why Obama and/or his people were so determined to convince Trump not to hire Flynn, after his service in their administration.

    • Wes W says:

      Yes it’s definitely a concerning story. Like you said hopefully the truth comes out fully.

    • Daryl Gordon says:

      https://t.co/Hp1aIAJIIR?amp=1

      Flynn was quite critical of Obama policy re: Iraq, ISIS during his time with that administration. That led to his firing which led to Flynn becoming a prominent Trump supporter. Flynn knows where all the Obama bodies are buried and as Trump’s national security adviser, Flynn would have been privy to all the nefarious misdeeds going on in the run up to the Trump inauguration .

      He had to be stopped to keep the sham Russia narrative going and to hide the criminality and dishonesty of the Obama administration.

    • Derek Pearce says:

      By all means, Trump should set a precedent of prosecuting previous presidents. Lol that’s gonna work out just great for him.

      • Daryl Gordon says:

        Obama will never face the music publicly. If the case for criminal prosecution is as strong as it appears, someone who is high ranking intelligence (Clapper, Brennan) or law enforcement (Comey) will be manipulated into taking the fall. The big question: will mainstream media give this fair coverage? My guess, not very likely.

        • The Doctor says:

          “manipulated into taking the fall”

          And who will be the Puppetmaster behind this manipulation? The Evil George Soros? The Illuminati? The Freemasons? Bill Gates? Hillary? Do tell.

      • Fred from BC says:

        “By all means, Trump should set a precedent of prosecuting previous presidents.”

        Trump isn’t prosecuting anyone. The DOJ and Attorney General are following an increasingly obvious trail of corruption and abuse of power, and it is leading in directions that conflict with your ideology and force you to acknowledge uncomfortable realities. I feel for you, Derek…but what exactly do you think should happen at this point? Should they just stop looking? Shut down the investigation? How would you justify that to the American public?

        “Lol that’s gonna work out just great for him.”

        Why wouldn’t it? Trump has done nothing to be prosecuted for (although there are a couple of people here who swear he will be arrested and charged with (something) the moment he leaves office). If Obama has indeed misused the power of his office, he should pay the price…unless you only believe in the rule of law when it is being applied against Republicans and Conservatives?

        Take heart, though…Daryl probably has it right. Someone else will take the fall for (your hero?) Obama anyway….

  10. I’d be shitting my pants if I was involved in this thing during the Obama Administration cause this is not good, to say the very least.

  11. Daryl Gordon says:

    Start with the DNC. Paid off Bernie Sanders in 2016, probably did the same this time around. All the 2020 primary contenders conveniently withdraw right around the time Biden gets a big bump from Rep Clyburn endorsement in South Carolina. Without a doubt all were promised future goodies, just endorse Biden, cash in later.

    DNC and Clinton campaign funded the phony dossier that started the Russia -Trump narrative. Now caught red handed, is it a stretch to imagine more backdealing to convince (richly reward) one of the many prominent characters in legal jeopardy to take one for Team Blue.

    Think of it like a pension. Just fall on your sword, do some time in country club prison, live happily ever after . Saint Obama skates.
    ….

    • The Doctor says:

      Wow, if it’s that Yuge, The Bilderberg Group, The Elders of Zion, and David Icke’s secret lizard people are probably involved as well.

      • Fred from BC says:

        “Wow, if it’s that Yuge, The Bilderberg Group, The Elders of Zion, and David Icke’s secret lizard people are probably involved as well.”

        If they are, indictments are in their futures as well.

      • Mark D says:

        The Rotfang Conspiracy […] using a combination of Dark Magic and gum disease.

        [Sorry, I could not resist. It is one of my favourite comedic relief moments in Harry Potter.]

  12. Fred from BC says:

    This is an eye-opener:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/15/tara-reade-left-trail-of-aggrieved-acquaintances-260771

    That’s a pretty devastating takedown of Tara Reide, no doubt about it. I only have three questions:

    1) Given the time, effort and expense of such an in-depth investigation, how is it that no mainstream media thought to do the same to Christine Blasey-Ford? It’s not like her unflattering nickname and past history were hard to find.

    2) Did anyone think to go back further and see if Tara Reade was always this emotionally disturbed, or was it possible that the incident she describes with Joe Biden really *did* happen, and it triggered something in her and sent her off the deep end?

    3) Does Politico plan on applying this same rigorous journalistic approach to the other seven (or so) women who have accused Biden of inappropriate conduct (including, apparently, a Secret Service agent)?

    That said, I’m personally not inclined to believe Tara Reide anymore (preponderance of evidence and all that) and think this story should probably put her accusations to rest.Biden may be a creep, but he probably isn’t guilty in this case.

  13. Gilbert says:

    It’s easy to criticize. How many cases and how many deaths would the USA have with Joe Biden instead of Donald Trump? We don’t know.

    Many leaders underestimated the coronavirus. They include Justin Trudeau, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Vladimir Putin, Boris Johnson and Rodrigo Duterte. In my opinion, Angela Merkel has performed well.

  14. Doug says:

    As a an American citizen, I’m almost certain to vote Trump as Biden is against the Keystone pipeline. I hate that it has come down to this, but the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:

      Doug,

      Let’s hope Trump and Pence don’t end up catching and kicking off from COVID-19…

    • Fred from BC says:

      “As a an American citizen, I’m almost certain to vote Trump as Biden is against the Keystone pipeline. I hate that it has come down to this, but the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”

      You’re far from being alone in that, Doug.

      I keep saying the very same thing: millions of Americans who really don’t like Donald Trump and would be appalled to be considered “Trump supporters” are going to hold their noses and *vote for him anyway* because the Democrats aren’t giving them any other choice. Period.

      Hey, Democrats? You know all that stuff you’ve been doing for the last few years…all the vicious attacks on Donald Trump, the Russian scam, The Meuller fishing expedition, the Ukrainian joke of an impeachment (what part of “not an impeachable offense” did you NOT understand?), the attempts to blame him for the Coronavirus…all that stuff?

      IT DIDN’T WORK.

      So a reasonably intelligent course of action from this point on would be to TRY SOMETHING DIFFERENT, wouldn’t it? And quickly…you’re running out of time…

      • Mark D says:

        “I keep saying the very same thing: millions of Americans who really don’t like Donald Trump and would be appalled to be considered “Trump supporters” are going to hold their noses and *vote for him anyway* because the Democrats aren’t giving them any other choice. Period.”

        There was a similar phenomena when Bill Clinton was re-elected for his second term, with Republicans having run Bob Dole. (For reasons similar to why Democrats are running Joe Biden against the incumbent Mr Trump.)

        More people voted for Bill Clinton than admitted publicly to having voted for him.

        The same voters who voted to maintain Republican control over the House and the Senate.

        As an aside, I fully suspect that if Canada had the same electoral system as the U.S., the 2011 election would have elected President Jack Layton with a Conservative majority in the House of Commons. Likewise, the results of senate elections would have been the most difficult to predict that year.

        • Fred from BC says:

          “There was a similar phenomena when Bill Clinton was re-elected for his second term, with Republicans having run Bob Dole.”

          Oh wow, I remember that. Late-night sketch comedy was forever changed.

          ” (For reasons similar to why Democrats are running Joe Biden against the incumbent Mr Trump.)”

          Absolutely, yes…they must see themselves as having no other options. I’m thinking it would have been a completely different situation without Bernie Sanders in play, who simply had to be stopped before all other considerations, right? The damage he would have done to the Democrats would have taken years to repair…

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