10.01.2020 11:35 PM

Prediction

7 Comments

  1. Steve Teller says:

    Agreed. And I will probably go to Hades for thinking this, but I can’t help wondering if the diagnosis is fake, for this reason and others.
    The only independent person who validated it is the President’s personal physician, and we know the type of people Trump surrounds himself with.
    OK, I criticize others for conspiracy theories, so I should let this one go, I know.

  2. the real Sean says:

    There’s no point. The election ended last night.

  3. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    You know all those Marquess of Queensberry rules that gentlemen and ladies adhere to during times of political crisis, well, that should go straight out of the water: no criticizing foreign policy ends at the water’s edge, suspending campaigns because one’s opponent is ill, not holding huge transformative events all the way up to November 3rd.

    We’re talking about Trump here. So, do everything that’s humanly possible to move the needle in favour of a Biden landslide and screw the Trump campaign.

  4. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    [window] Getting old…

  5. Robert White says:

    Warren,

    You predicted early on that Biden would win this in the end. I, for one, don’t know how you were able to do that, and I also don’t know how you are able to predict no more debates. When this is over please enlighten those of us that don’t have your decades of experience geopolitically.

    When you first stated that Biden would win this I thought you were hedging a bet by thinking positively. In no way did I really think that Biden was going to take lead position as you hypothesized given Trump’s track record for unpredictability. Now I’m wondering what you know that the rest of us don’t know?

    Clearly, you have been quite confident where many were not confident early on. Biden will win this as you so aptly hypothesized, but how did you predict it?

    Don’t answer until the race is over, but when it is over please do tell how you did this?

    RW

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:

      Robert,

      Correct predictions are largely gut-based. Warren has been confident from the moment Biden become the nominee. For my part, initially I was not a Biden supporter but warmed slowly to the possibility that Biden would win. The Senate-House deadlock and cheques going out by Executive Order changed my mind. But NOW, Trump has sunk this election for Trump — people see the President of the United States ill with COVID-19 — as the backlash builds, even among some of his most fervent Trump believers about Trump going to a NJ fundraiser — not to mention a ceremony in the Rose Garden — when he was likely afflicted with COVID-19 but largely asymptomatic. That rage seals the deal and will cost Trump the election. No doubt about it. Hopefully, people at those events won’t start dropping dead like flies. If they do, it’s no one’s fault but Trump’s.

      • Robert White says:

        Ronald,

        I agree that it is a gut based prediction, but Warren’s gut has half a century worth of geopolitical calculus swimming around in it along with feedback from his central nervous system. Clearly, he is demonstrating that calculus when he hypothesizes accurate predictions. Moreover, he is drawing on experience gleaned over his lifetime rather than through the few determinants I myself can glean from what has transpired lately vis-a-vis debates, COVID-19 knock-on effects, debate persona, et cetera.

        I majored in Personality Theory so I draw on that experience for my predictive lines of discourse, but Warren was trained via Canadian Legal Studies, and Canadian politics de jour which makes the gut calculus somewhat dissimilar and uniquely idiosyncratic.

        In brief, he has not articulated that calculus yet, and as a noob in fed level politics I’m wondering what exactly that calculus was beyond the gut instinct.

        Gut instinct is always informed by key determinants of the cerebral kind, eh.

        RW

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