, 12.28.2021 02:46 PM

My latest: fearless predictions to disregard!

Warning: Reckless, feckless predictions ahead. Buckle up, readers.

A year ago, 2021 was supposed to be the cure for 2020. Remember that?

Now, 2022 is supposed to be the cure for 2021. Will it be?

Well, those of us in the predictions business have learned — the hard way — that things that haven’t happened may, um, never happen. The future is indeed unwritten, as Joe Strummer of the Clash liked to say.

But here’s some predictions anyway. If I’m wrong, I’m counting on all of you to gather around my stool at the Midtown Brewery in Prince Edward County and remind me. I’ll buy.

Justin Trudeau: He’s gone into the witness protection program since the election, and his Liberal Party is accordingly up in the polls. That should tell Liberals — even him, the ostensibly top Liberal — something. Assorted ambitious Grits are pawing the dirt, waiting for the starting gun. But, to mix metaphors, will Trudeau go for the proverbial walk in the snow in 2022? My hunch: No. Every leader prefers to leave on a high — and, until the pandemic fades from memory, Justin is staying put. He wants to be remembered for sunshine, lollipops and sunny ways — none of which have been in abundance, lately. (Besides, those of us in the columnizing business want him to stay. He’s the worst prime minister in memory, and he gives us stuff to write about.)

Erin O’Toole: The Conservative Party doesn’t know what it is, it doesn’t know what it wants, and it doesn’t know where it’s going. As such, O’Toole is the perfect Tory leader: He doesn’t know any of those things, either. O’Toole arguably isn’t human: He’s a colour, beige. He belongs on a wall in a government waiting room, not in Parliament. What does he believe in? What does he care about? Who knows. This is seen in O’Toole’s tendency to have multiple positions on single issues. Carbon taxes, assault weapons, abortion, gay marriage, vaccinations: On the stuff that matters, O’Toole is in tatters. That said, he’s unlikely to be jettisoned by his party before the next election: As noted, Tories don’t know what they want or need, and — until they do — he’s safe at Stornoway. Doing whatever it is he does.

Jagmeet Singh: With the notable exception of Tom Mulcair — who, while a dislikable rageaholic, arguably deserved a second chance — New Democrats are enthusiastic about losing. It comforts them, like an old blanket, because it is all they have known. Case in point, Singh’s former boss at Queen’s Park in Ontario, whatsername. She’s decisively lost three (3) elections in a row, and her party still sticks with her. That’s good news for Singh, who is the part-time federal New Democratic Party leader, but the full-time enabler of Justin Trudeau’s every legislative desire. It’s the best job Singh’s ever had: He’s not going anywhere anytime soon, either.

The Damned Virus: I was talking to a psychiatrist friend, recently, to ascertain what people were feeling about the Omicron variant and what it has done to the holiday season. “They’re pissed off,” said he, using expert psychiatrist terminology. “They believed in vaccines, they played by the rules, and they feel angry and depressed that things are worse than ever before.” All that is true, but this writer verily believes this is true, too: For COVID-19, Omicron is good news and bad news. It’s good for COVID because it is so wildly infectious. But it’s bad for the pandemic, too, because Omicron may signal that COVID is mutating itself out of existence. As my smart health-care politico pal Dan Carbin told me this week: “This has been the end game (all) along. Viral mutation to an infectious, but mild, virus. Like the other four endemic coronaviruses, all of which likely killed a lot of people when first introduced. The last was likely the flu of the 1889-91, which killed one million. And is now a cold.”

That’s my big — and, as it turns out, only happy — prediction for 2022: COVID is always going to be with us, like its bastard siblings, the flu and the common cold. But it is not going to upend our lives as much as it did in 2020 and 2021.

That’s my big prediction. And if I’m wrong, come find me on my stool at the Midtown.

But don’t forget your mask and vaccination passport!

— Warren Kinsella was Chief of Staff to a federal Liberal Minister of Health.


  1. The Doctor says:

    I don’t like Singh, but to be fair to the guy, he’s in a tough spot because he and JT are basically in a long, ongoing battle trying to out-wokebot one another.

    Plus when JT’s government is spending money like a drunken sailor on leave, that doesn’t leave a lot of room for Singh to say “you should spend more!” Which is the usual NDP mantra.

  2. Doug says:

    The Liberal Party is best to maintain Trudeau as avatar for as long as possible. His remarkable stream of good luck must end soon. Not even his undeserved and to date unassailable brand can withstand the inevitable scandals lurking underneath all the money sloppily shoveled out the door, and the economic headwinds on the horizon. The global economy is in for a rough ride and Canada is probably the least prepared of any major economy. Despite Liberal attempts to diminish, oil, gas and agriculture will hedge against inflation’s economic destruction, but not enough to mask a real estate bust and the capital flight that has occurred under Liberal watch (see the National Bank: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/canada-is-bleeding-capital-as-capital-expenditure-dwindles-national-bank~2344921). In in a bizarre parallel, the 70’s commodity boom papered over much of Trudeau 1.0’s economic incompetence. The Feds can’t help but wear this. That being said, the Liberal Party has better survival instincts than Keith Richards. It will set up Trudeau as the fall guy.

    Ditching O’Toole now would be high risk. The CPC hasn’t stood for much since about 2014. Until leadership hopefuls can articulate vision, a leadership race could produce something even worse than the status quo.

    Singh is almost as fake as Trudeau, and that says much. The alleged champion of social justice wears clothes worth more than the annual incomes of many of his constituents. The so-called environmentalist drove a gas guzzling BMW until recently and would use it to transport the hipster bike prop he would pull out for photo ops. Most inexcusable, as a party leader who wears a visible symbol of religious affiliation, he sold his soul to Quebec electoral prospects by staying quiet on Bill 21. At least he can speak competently with usually substantive content, in contrast to his allegedly “charismatic” Liberal role model. A politician who washed his hair on Tik Tok and plays video games with lightweight AOC is not a serious person, let alone a leader.

  3. Sean says:

    Agree re. Trudeau – He won’t quit until the party is reduced to a smoldering pile of ashes and half of his staff / family are facing charges. The party has been brain washed into thinking it is impossible for anyone to ever win an election except for Justin. So the wheel of corruption keeps turning.

    Agree re. O’Toole – no viable option would make anything better. Also Tories need to get used to the fact that polls in between elections mean nothing at all. Swing voters see government people doing government stuff so they quickly intuit that the people doing government stuff are supposed to be in government. Not much more to it than that.

    Not so sure re. virus. It is the vaccines that are making it milder, not the mutations. From what I’ve been reading (actual doctors observations- I am not a researcher) OMICRON is just as bad for you as the original COVID if you are unvaxed. So, society may have to wait several more years to get back on track because 10-15% of the population steadily refuse reality.

  4. Douglas W says:

    Jagmeet Singh — remains leader throughout 2022.

    JT: — replaced by Anita Anand, anointed by Liberal establishment.

    EOT: — replaced by Melissa Lantsman.

    October 2022 federal election — won by landslide Lantsman.

  5. A. Voter says:

    Yahoo News had a link to a Miami Herald story that said health care workers who had two vaccines and then were infected with COVID developed a “super immunity”.
    With the support of twenty percent of eligible voters in the last federal election, it would seem voters have become immune to Trudeau’s charms. JT will walk when inflation and higher taxes are making voters angry.

    • AV,

      Just his ego is the size of the universe. There’s no way HimselfTM will walk voluntarily. And the rest of ’em are too busy licking his ass, so there’s no one left to give him a proverbial shove. Carney certainly won’t do it. He doesn’t want to improve Freeland’s already dismal odds.

      • Douglas W says:

        Agreed: there’s no way JT will walk voluntarily.

        And so the Liberal establishment will contrive a way to force him to walk the plank.

        • Ronald O'Dowd says:


          There is no Liberal establishment. They are all Trudeau monkeys and this government will live or die with him. IMHO, Carney is their only real shot at holding on to power post-Trudeau’s eventual departure.

          • Douglas W says:

            No Liberal establishment?
            That would be a first for the party.

            Suspect we are both in agreement that Freeland has been reduced to a bit player.

            Carney — I can see him entering the political arena only if the conditions are right.
            Polling numbers are currently solid for the Libs.
            Now would be his time.
            But the Boss isn’t in any hurry to leave.

            And so he twiddles his thumbs.

          • Ronald O'Dowd says:


          • Ronald O'Dowd says:

            I used to hold Freeland in high regard before I decamped back to the CPC. She went out of her way to enable and prop up a clueless and way over his head excuse of a prime minister. Freeland is a textbook case of classic opportunist and it has served her well, but no one else. Who was once a rapidly rising star is now in the last gasps of a politically setting sun. Say the words leadership and Freeland in the same sentence but please try not to die from laughing totally out of control…

  6. Steve T says:

    Good observation about Jagmeet. Further to this, I recall when he took over from Tom Mulcair, and much was made about Jagmeet being young, hip, and widely appealing to many.
    The last few elections have shown that you can have the greatest leader in the world, but your party policies still matter. Thank goodness Canadians see the NDP for what it is – a party that is best at generating sound bytes and fluffy messages that bear little resemblance to the actual economy or reality. There’s no way to put lipstick on that pig – even with a charismatic leader like Singh.

    • Steve,

      The NDP are like farts. They somehow inevitably come out during a campaign but this dissipate just as quickly in a strong wind. Course the ever laughing excuse for a prime minister has a mighty high regard for his sex worker cousins. They never fail to please Liberals.

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