07.30.2022 09:41 AM

The next federal election, revealed


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    Ronald James O'Dowd says:


    The NDP is no longer the NDP under Jagmeet’s leadership. It’s primary reason for existing now is to keep the CPC out of power regardless of who’s leader. Full stop. So Warren has it bang on — Pierre has very little chance of becoming sufficiently likeable to win the next election regardless of policy positions. As tarred and incompetent as this Prime Minister is, voters may already be royally sick of him but they will more than likely choose the devil they know at the polls. Note however that Clark was wrong when he used the same analogy and analysis in 2006 re: Martin vs. Harper, so it’s not impossible that Poilièvre can win. It’s only highly unlikely unless Trudeau unexpectedly blows the campaign.

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    SM says:

    There are a whole bunch of formerly left wing women with no one to vote for. Things might not be as straightforward as they first appear.

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    PJH says:

    Sometimes you have to burn the village down to save it……(Im talking about a Poilievre led Conservative Party).

    Then, and perhaps only then, will the old time RefoormaTories(tm) within the Conservative Party of Canada realize the PP brand of Conservatism will never fly in Canada.

    I won’t hold me breath.

    Regardless, I’ll be having a weenie roast on the smoldering ashes.

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      Ronald James O'Dowd says:


      So much of the membership would rather have a perceived SC-friendly leader than an actual SC like Lewis or Baber. This is living in fantasyland given the fact that PP has been educated by you-know-who on these issues. So…in short, they are buying a guy who’s NOT selling them but whom they’re “buying from” a bill of goods. The whole thing is way beyond laughable and patently ridiculous. But hey, that’s so much of the membership. This is O’Toole all over again, with this time the membership pretending that Poilièvre is something he’s not rather than the candidate pretending that he’s something he’s not. And to make matters infinitely worse, this is the third time in a row that we’ll likely lose an election and that same gang who are reasonably deluded will do the exact same thing in the next (fourth) leadership race. Go figure.

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      Jason says:

      As a Conservative member who has tolerated… A LOT… in the hopes of the party growing beyond grievances and juvenile fantasies of libertarianism, but if Poilievre wins on September 10, I am done.

      And given that my riding is a very tightly contested swing riding, should that come to pass I will either run as an independent myself or latch onto someone with a better political pedigree who isn’t stuck in the quagmire that is the modern LPC or CPC (or the fringes).

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    Gilbert says:

    Not every New Democrat will support the Liberals. That is an exaggeration. Here are a few important factors: 1) Voters are tired of Justin Trudeau. 2) The government’s incompetence with issues such as passports, air travel and inflation will not be forgotten. 3) Pierre Poilievre is good with social media. 4) Pierre Poilievre has middle-class roots and can connect with ordinary voters. 5) Pierre Poilievre wins in Ottawa, so he can win in urban areas. 6) Pierre Poilievre speaks better French than Erin O’Toole and Andrew Scheer. 7) Pierre Poilievre knows how to counter attacks against him. 8) Pierre Poilievre not only criticizes his opponents but is also a man of ideas. 9) Pierre Poilievre represents smaller government, not the bigger government of Justin Trudeau. 10) Pierre Poilievre thinks about monetary policy unlike the PM who gives it little thought.

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      Ronald James O'Dowd says:


      Be that as it may, PP will almost certainly lose the next election to Trudeau or his successor.

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      PJH says:

      PP a Man of ideas?….that’s rich….If he’s a man of ideas….I’ll look and have a gander at his policies on his website….oh wait, there is no such heading on his website. Nothing but buzzwords and empty catchphrases. PP is a like a barrel…..they make a lot of noise when empty. No thanks!…..

      PS….PP wins in Ottawa….he can then win in urban areas?…..Ottawa, that perfect Canadian cross section of urban hipsters, non-gov’t office workers, service workers, LGBTQ and poor working moms?….surely you jest. And with PP’s past parleying with occupiers and seditionists, I wouldn’t be so sure he’ll win his own Ottawa seat, let alone any in urban Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver.. The man will be ballot box poison for the Conservative Party of Canada in these areas…..result?: Another Liberal win for Justin and co…I dont know about you, but I’d like to win for a change….

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        The Doctor says:

        Yeah, I take issue with that “man of ideas” thingy.

        His ideas on crypto have already been proven to be completely idiotic, deleterious nonsense.

        His idea of firing the head of the Bank of Canada is also dumb as fuck. It’s just stupid, soundbite clickbait. Maybe it gets him votes, but please, a man of ideas?

        On the planet I grew up on, “man of ideas” means a serious person and a serious thinker.

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    western view says:

    Those who think a Poilievre win is an automatic coronation for Trudeau in the next election might want to put their ear to the ground.
    A poll was just released that had Trudeau and Poilievre running neck and neck for who was “scariest”. Remember, this analysis was compiled by polling average Canadians, not arm chair strategists like us.
    If politics is the art of harnessing emotions, Trudeau is in big trouble because the emotional narrative is going in the opposite direction to his strengths, which is showering money and making promises. That narrative is not working for people who are concerned about making ends meet and see an uncaring Trudeau Government standing in the middle of everything. Freeland unwittingly underscored the disconnect of the Liberal Party by stating that high fuel prices were a good thing for fighting climate change. (It might be true, but tone deaf.)
    One last thing: there are subtle changes in the media coverage of Trudeau worth noting. Opinion narratives are becoming hostile toward the government bungles in important portfolios. That scorn is well deserved and a change from the continuous fawning since 2015. And pictures…there are some pretty nasty images of Trudeau appearing alongside stories and for an image conscious politician, that’s gotta smart. It look like the media honeymoon is finally over, and Trudeau is going to have to earn the positive coverage.
    If I was a betting person, Trudeau will quit or be ushered out the door within a year.

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      western view says:

      I had a brain cramp in the above post when talking about our image conscious Prime Minister. The media has had a field day with oodles of sarcastic comments about the newest Justin Trudeau hair style. What was he thinking? Being compared to Jim Carrey breaks new ground, but appropriate for the Keystone Kops environment Trudeau presides over these days. Personally, I found up close photos of Trudeau in the new doo made him look menacing, more like the school yard bully (which also seems appropriate).

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      PJH says:

      Where was the poll and how big is the sample size?….If it’s of “the base” and done in Western Canada…..the poll is probably fairly acurate. If the poll was done across Canada, taking in rural and urban areas, and all age groups, I think you are gearing yourself for a big disappointment.

      The Liberal attack ads are in the can….PP will be dead in the water before he even sets foot in Stornoway(Im sure he’ll appreciate the free digs for the few months he will occupy it, however)

      The silent majority will never accept PP, or his ilk as Prime Minister….and the sooner the Conservative Party(or what will be left of it after the next Federal election) learns this, the better….

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        western view says:

        I’m going to politely disagree about the “silent majority” and how they will decide the next election. The next election will be fought on the economy and personal finances, not abortion, guns or vaccine mandates. The Trudeau Liberals have little high ground to stand on with pocketbook issues, and the Conservatives will be reminding the silent majority to think about it at the grocery store checkout, gas stations and mortgage renewal time.

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          PJH says:

          Sorry,,,,but enough informed people know that this inflation thingy has a whole host of contributing factors….not just “gatekeepers”…..Gov’t Scandals?…tempest in teapots and seven day wonders….Gas prices are coming down and yes higher mortgages will be painful for some…but already we are seeing a long overdue correction in the real estate market….Nothing gets women and men out more to vote and to volunteer on behalf of pro choice candidates and parties than the thought of their reproductive rights being taken from them….Scheer learned that the hard way, O’Toole couldn’t put a coherent election package together if he tried….and well have more of the same from PP, who has been completely vague on the issue, and has changed his mind enough times on it…..It will forever be, the stinking albatross around the neck of the CPoC and personally, I hope PP wears it…..

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        Steve T says:

        Sadly you are probably right, because unlike the optimistic response above, my experience is that Canadians rarely vote for issues that actually matter.

        Instead, they vote for issues that are non-issues here, because the Liberals tell them they are important issues. Abortion and gun control are the two prime examples.

        Canadians also love to get into identity politics, and fall prey to phony claims of racism, etc. We seem destined to vote out of misplaced guilt rather than for things that will actually improve the country overall. We get the government we deserve, and unfortunately most voters don’t deserve very much it seems.

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          western view says:

          It will be a contest for the ballot question, and Liberals are pretty crafty at inserting the emotional angle of abortion, guns and now race/gender that motivates people. But a prolonged period of inflation and higher interest rates hits people and their standard of living. Two or three years of inflation isn’t something to diss off for the working people who are struggling. Financial security could dominate the next ballot question.

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    EsterHazyWasALoser says:

    The NDP deserve to be wiped out in the next election. Their policy of unqualified support for PM Trudeau should it make it clear to their supporters that they are nothing more than a superfluous fashion accessory for Justin. If I was him, I would simply ask NDP supporters in the next election campaign why they should waste a vote on Jagmeet when they can vote for the real thing, and actually put a government into power which will share their concerns and values. (Of course, once in power, the Libs can veer right, as they usually do, and leave their progressive supporters standing at the alter). With respect to the current CPC nonsense, if JT calls an election this fall right after the leadership campaign concludes, they (the Cons) could be in trouble. But I suspect he will wait for a couple of years at least. If, as the wags like to say, a week is a lifetime in politics, then couple of years must be at least an eon. Considering how effed up the last few years have been, I have no idea what things will be like in 2024 or 25. Just my 2 cents!

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    Walter says:

    At some point in time liberals (Liberal, NDP, Green) voters will start using their brains and jump over to the Conservatives.
    It happened in 1984, when a right campaigning Mulroney won 50%+ of the vote.
    Then as now, Trudeau had destroyed the country beyond recognition and left voters finally realized it.
    Although probably a dozen years too late then, with the younger Trudeau incompetence hopefully they realize it in 7 years this time.

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