09.02.2022 09:36 PM

My latest video hit: Poilievre will win – then lose

20 Comments

  1. Warren,

    Winning is almost always all about the strength of your strategic bench who save your ass when even the most popular leader or his or her candidates does something stupid. To my knowledge, Norquay, Watt, Powers and Pristanski are not on board. Nor are top independent strategists like Kinsella. That leaves Poilièvre heavily relying on B-level strategists such as Byrne and the candidate himself. That’s a very dangerous political place indeed to be when eventually going into an election against the Liberals whether it actually comes early or ultimately on schedule.

  2. I rarely disagree with Warren but I do on this: our Prime Minister is both a political dummy and is stupid. The guy has absolutely no fundamental political depth nor sound political judgment, period.

    Probably the best illustration is the alleged $312,000 and $32,000 that his mother and brother respectively received for giving speeches to the Liberal Party’s private-sector cousins.

    Not only did Trudeau not put a red-line between that distinct possibility of family enrichment, this genius did nothing to make sure that the money was returned. To my knowledge, all of the above is factual.

    Add to that whopper the fact that this guy is totally incapable of giving coherent much less relevant responses to issues on the fly (unlike Harper) unless either previously briefed, given notes or exhaustively prepared in advance as during debates.

    This PM is not an imbecile but he’s definitely not a person of intellectual or political substance. Not at all. (Now you know why I supported Garneau for leader during my Liberal membership years.)

    • Martin Dixon says:

      Ronald, totally agree there is no there there when it comes to JT and that comment jumped out at me too. It is literally shocking to me that we would elect someone so dumb. I have a far far left brother and he can see it. JT’s PMO is smart and they function as his brain. And Garneau would have got my vote all day long. When I look at Chretien and his cabinet and how far we have descended from that bunch, I just shake my head. Even voted for him once, maybe twice. Voting for JT is absolutely incomprehensible to me. Would have rather had Mulcair in 2015 all day long. At least he has a brain.

  3. william shakesfeare says:

    Oh, for heaven’s sake. 1/3 of Pakistan is underwater. Europe is experiencing floods and droughts unlike any ever seen and the US Southwest is reverting to desert as fast as the Colorado river disappears.
    China’s cities are sinking into sloppy mudholes as their rivers disappear and fires are back burning down California and we actually care whether a politician wins control of a party in Canada.
    It doesn’t matter.
    What does matter is how will we handle it when the world comes calling for our great lakes. There is no way we will get to keep them. Oh, there might be a deal where the Americans buy it but it will be forced and we will lose the most precious thing we temporarily own. Our water.
    Canada is nothing more than a thin ribbon of bugs, beer, and bros. 5000 miles wide and an inch high.
    Our great lakes are saving our ass right now. They moderate our winters and summers and let us carry on living our pampered lives.
    We have five maybe ten years before the piper must be paid.
    We have a lot more to think about than whether some politician leads a party or not.
    My Tick Tock song.
    Tick Tock time is running out
    Tick Tock no more twist and shout.
    Are we cursed to die of thirst
    trying to find a mountain
    or running scared from dirty air
    trying to climb a mountain.
    Tick Tock time is running out
    Tick Tock no more twist and shout

    And we won’t be missed
    For the sun will burn and kiss
    Every place we did exist

    Tick Tock time is running out
    Tick Tock no more twist and shout.

  4. Martin Dixon says:

    Maybe the fact that McKay is speaking at the announcement is a signal that Pristanski is on board. But you do highlight the fact that our party is full of whiners after “their guy” does not win. I was shocked at how many MPs basically sat on their hands during the last election after McKay lost the leadership fight. Your guy loses, lick your wounds for a couple of days, get over it, get behind the new guy, end of discussion. It is a binary choice.

    Most of that video is discussing PP’s MSM panicked caricature(MacDougall is right IMO), not him. PP’s latest video does not mention Justin and IS discussing the economy. Suggest some of you tune in.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_J5imXRjx_4

    The Income Tax Act has pretty well tripled in size since I took the CICA In-Depth Tax Course in 1979. And it is incomprehensible.

    As far as predictions go, he may win, he may lose. But we should all know by now that predicting with any kind of certainty is no longer a thing. Does jen still hang around here?

    http://warrenkinsella.com/2016/11/whats-your-electoral-college-prediction/

    I would be interested in her view.

    • Martin,

      I would argue that during the last race there were some minor slights committed by both sides but there was also a widespread perception among the MacKay team, which I supported, that some of O’Toole’s people quite deliberately played dirty and were prepared to do anything and everything to win, no matter the cost or price paid by the party. I wholeheartedly subscribe to this view that O’Toole’s people went beyond the pale while he likely at the very least looked the other way. So, it’s my fondest wish that those senior people are never, ever, given major areas of responsibility in any future leadership campaign. They should have been permanently rooted out. Hope like hell that happened.

      • Martin Dixon says:

        Ronald, I wasn’t happy McKay lost either but I sure wasn’t going to sit on my hands as a result but many outgoing MPs did. Like I said, a binary choice. And, by the way, I have no idea if Powers will help PP, but he is certainly seems to be coming around to the guy.

        • Martin,

          That’s what I did on one of my blogs with Justin as much as he wasn’t my choice. And I’ll do the same this time to end the government of the other binary choice. My reservations about PP pale in comparison to my dislike for the previous regime and its incredible level of incompetence, who no doubt flows from the top. As for Telford, she’s no better than this Prime Minister. Butts was much better but he’s in the private sector now. Does that mean he’ll be MIA in the next campaign?

    • Derek Pearce says:

      Just have to pipe up and say, the Income Tax Act tripling in size has no effect on regular wage earners who generally fill out the same forms (eve if online now) and tick the same boxes year after year. The endless new rules are for the type who support the Conservatives and finagle a million new ways to write things off and lower their taxes in ways regular wage earners don’t get to. I’ll eat my hat if PP gets sooooo populist as to say he’s doing away with these writeoffs.

      • Martin Dixon says:

        The Income Tax Act is just an example. It is just math:

        https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/imt/2009/01/20/the-mathematics-of-bureaucracy-explains-how-they-grow-and-at-what-point-they-become-inefficient/

        With respect, I don’t think you have any idea how “regular wage earners” as you call them can get into a mess. I see it often and many times too late to fix. It is ridiculous that people like that need someone like me to get them out of a problem.

        And check the record. The last massive change to the Tax Act that collected a pile of revenue was done by, wait for it, the Tories:

        https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/flaherty-imposes-new-tax-on-income-trusts-1.573751

        That is the dirty little secret about this government that I always explain to my well off friends when they start to rant about JT. They have made out like bandits since 2015. The insiders supporting this government know that. Everyone else, not so much. Financially, the worst thing that can happen to me personally is for the Tories to win.

        • Robert White says:

          I was raised by the Tax Man and I, for one, agree that the Tories are the worst of the lot for regressive taxation plans.

          Whenever a Tory government is elected I end up suffering more than I did with the Liberals in power.

          Life was good under Chretien’s leadership. Life turned rotten when he left office IMHO.

          RW

          • Martin Dixon says:

            Those were a different bunch of Liberals. And that should be patently obvious. Martin actually reigned in the public sector. See my post about ever expanding bureaucracies.

          • Robert White says:

            The Mathematics of Bureaucracy is an excellent paper.
            Weber is a theorist that I should read up on a bit more
            now that I’m longing for the days when I used to read books for days on end.

            You are most assuredly a cool tax nerd like my dad was.

            Cheers, Robert

  5. Gilbert says:

    I’m not so certain Pierre Poilievre will lose. Justin Trudeau is no longer as popular as he used to be. Many Canadians don’t think he’s doing a good job. He gives the impression of a superficial leader who is an elitist and loves to be with elites. Pierre Poilievre seems to have the ability to connect with ordinary people. Time will tell.

  6. Gilbert,

    Sure, theoretically if things break the right way, or a Liberal leader makes a disastrous mistake during the campaign, then PP could and likely would win. But short of that, forget it.

    The Trudeau Liberals would sell their mothers to win so this Prime Minister better watch his back if polling seriously sours over a protracted period of time. If they’re seriously in trouble, Trudeau will get the message to prepare his walk, snow or no snow. And then with someone new as leader, that’ll make it even harder for us to win. I expect him to be there next time if the election comes sooner rather than later. However, if this Trudeau does another 1979, then Poilièvre might have a decent shot at the prize provided Byrne and company haven’t already blown him up between now and the next election.

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