— Musings —05.30.2023 08:47 AM
In yesterday walks tomorrow
On the morning after, Alberta is as divided in 2023 as America was in 2016. It'll end similarly. #ableg #cdnpoli
— Warren Kinsella (@kinsellawarren) May 30, 2023
— Musings —05.30.2023 08:47 AM
On the morning after, Alberta is as divided in 2023 as America was in 2016. It'll end similarly. #ableg #cdnpoli
— Warren Kinsella (@kinsellawarren) May 30, 2023
Warren,
The voters are always right. They got what a plurality of them asked for.
I think that tweet overstates things a bit. I have long-standing friends and family there. Yes, there’s some kookiness (especially in the sticks) from the Extremely Online crowd, but the majority are congenitally centrist.
If it were horribly polarized, you would not have gotten all of those people telling pollsters that they were dissatisfied with both choices and had a difficult time making up their minds. That’s what you heard over and over again. What a ton of those dissatisfied voters, especially in Calgary, wanted was something like the old Lougheed PC Party: fiscally conservative but socially moderate. They were turned off by Smith’s nuttiness on stuff like Covid and can’t stomach the NDP’s fiscal irresponsibility, fondness for taxes and chumminess with big labour and eyeball-rolling SJW tropes.
Not everyone disagrees with Danielle Smith’s Covid views. The fact is that she often says what other politicians never will.
It’s one thing to have particular views on Covid. It’s quite another to be a head of government and to interfere with what are supposed to be independent legal and judicial proceedings.
It was wrong to interfere with court cases when Smith did it and it was wrong when JT did it. I’m sure you agree that it was wrong when JT did it?
Trump people, Smith people and Justin people don’t understand… When candidates like that get elected, the bureaucrats just take over and run everything around them.
As… they… should…
“Yes Minister” becomes reality. The agenda established through the election is so stupid / naïve, that no one in a position of responsibility can take it seriously or pay it any mind. The elected person therefore is just ignored and can’t get anything done.
So, if you want a government to pay attention to your interests… or any serious interests at all… here’s a subtle hint: stop voting for these numbskulls.
However, this is very, very good news for Justin / Team Corruption. Danielle Smith will become an easy pariah on the hustings. Only Danielle Smith could make Justin look reasonable and dependable by contrast.
I hope UCP supporters enjoy the four year melodrama that is about to be unleashed. Danielle Smith imagining that she is invincible is a perfect recipe for mayhem unlike anything Canada has ever seen before. If you thought Rob Ford’s time as Mayor was bonkers… You ain’t seen nothing yet! Nine provinces, three territories will be sitting back, kicking their feet up, laughing and laughing and laughing at Alberta for the next 48 months…. If it even lasts that long. Newfoundland should thank Alberta for assuming its traditional role of being the punchline that will unite Canadians from coast to coast.
As I said on another thread, I think you are comparing her to the wrong Ford. I just watched her on P and P(and participated in a zoom meeting chaired by her with Conrad Black which raised about 100k for MacKay’s campaign debt) and on both occasions(the first of which I knew nothing about her) and she came across as fine. But I guess we will see. If she is the whack job some says she is, the UCP will do what conservatives do in Alberta and dump her.
Different kettle of fish from Rob Ford — the guy had serious substance abuse issues, and that was huge. There’s lots to criticize about Smith and she’s shown dubious judgment on some things (particularly interfering in ongoing court cases, which is beyond the pale), but she’s not about to be the personal trainwreck that Rob Ford was.
Martin,
True enough. The really fun part will be seeing how long she lasts in the job. I’m a betting man but you won’t see me betting on this one. LOL.
Jn fairness, Alberta is only now as “divided” as most of the rest of Canada has been for decades.
For many years, Alberta was somewhat of a conservative monolith. Now there are two competitive parties – which is not a bad thing. Most other provinces have turnover (or the risk of turnover) at the provincial level, and that keeps each party on their toes.
It’s a rural/urban split. Smith is going to have a problem speaking to the concerns of Urban voters, and due to the lack of urban representation in Cabinet, she’ll be at greater risk of being influenced by the take back Alberta folks. There’s a very good chance she’ll be turfed before the next election. The NDP have to find a way to win outside of big cities, and that’s gonna be tough. The province is divided. Both parties have to come closer to the center, and both parties risk losing their left, or right in doing that. The truth is, if a party like the old PC’s still existed, had they not merged with the wacky rose, dragging them to the fringe, they’d probably win a steadier majority with a better representation of the province.
I’m not sure it’s fair to say there isn’t urban representation. Grande Prairie, Fort Mac, Red Deer, Medicine Hat and half of Calgary and Lethbridge all voted UCP. I’m not sure just because Edmonton shut them out that constitutes a lack of urban representation. Maybe a lack of public sector employees and others who rely on government funding, perhaps.
If the NDP wants to win outside of the two large centres they have a weird way of going about it. Bill 6 (bringing farms under OHS) and a 38 per cent corporate tax increase are the wrong way to go. In my area, they almost pushed through a parks proposal that could have seen forestry and oilfield activity restricted. In Edmonton, it had support. Out here, not so much.
This is just my opinion but it seemed that the NDP’s understanding of rural perspectives is viewed through the lens of what a bunch of directors in a boardroom in downtown Edmonton thinks they are.
Edmonton is a government town. So it is pretty simple really. The divide is between those paying the bills and those working in the public sector. The entire country is like that really. The electoral map in Alberta has very little orange just like the map of Canada has very little red.
The races in Calgary were very close, with the NDP winning the majority – Edmonton and Calgary represent just over 3 million people in a province of 4.5 million. Of the folks who voted for smith, a good chunk of them did so for nostalgic PC loyalty, despite detesting Smith. There’s an Urban Rural divide in Alberta.
Agreed. Martin is apparently colourblind when it comes to looking at the map of Calgary.
The long term trends are bad for the UCP. They cannot rely on winning rural seats as a long-term strategy. The number of rural seats is going to shrink, the people moving here have not been brainwashed into thinking they must always vote conservative and worship at the Church of Oil.
Let’s not forget all the fundamentals were there for the UCP – namely a strong economy coupled with lavish spending pre-election – and they still almost blew it. If there’s an economic downturn (and it’s already started – Suncor laying off 1500 people) and that turns voters in exurban Edmonton and Calgary (Airdrie, Chestermere, Strathcona County, Leduc, Spruce Grove, etc) against the UCP, the bottom could fall out and they’ll be left as a rural rump chasing a dying voter base.
Gord,
From your keyboard to God’s ears. It’s high time to bring back the AB PCs (a non-corruption incarnation), or something reasonably similar.
There is of course the flip side to your argument. Smith was painted as a lunatic whacko and the NDP STILL couldn’t pull it off. If you believe everything the usual suspects were saying about her, anyone else will be fine.