— Feature, Musings —05.31.2024 09:06 AM
My latest: ten points about the Mango Mussolini, convicted crook
Donald Trump, convicted criminal.
If you want to get detailed and in-depth coverage and commentary about this historic criminal case, there’s lots and lots that has been written by some smart Americans this morning.
But if you want the perspective of a Canadian who worked as a volunteer for Joe Biden in his last couple campaigns, you’ve come to the right place.
Ten observations.
1. The people who are said to me that Trump would never ever be convicted are the same people now saying the conviction will help him win. Why don’t I listen to these super smart people? I know nothing about politics or the law.
2. He won’t get jail time. White collar crime, first offense (that we know about anyway), no prior criminal record. Jail time seems impossible. My question is, will Canadian border agents let the Mango Mussolini into the country now that he’s a convicted criminal?
3. A related point on that: in Florida, where Trump resides, convicted felons are not allowed to vote. Among other things, this presents the delicious possibility the Trump will be unable to vote for himself at the Republican convention where he is the presumptive presidential nominee.
4. Related to that related point: his sentencing is happening four days before the GOP convention kicks off in Milwaukee. Whatever the Trumpkins may think, it’s going to be interesting to see how sane, law-and-order Republicans applaud a convicted crook. Expect lots of close-ups of Nikki Haley’s hands.
5. The 2024 Democratic convention in Chicago was always going to be a circus, just like the Democratic convention in Chicago was in 1968. The reason: anti-Semitic Gen Z types descending on the Windy City to violently protest Joe Biden’s longtime support of Israel. Now, the GOP will have a deep, dark pall over the proceedings: their candidate is a convicted criminal. Ouch.
6. And, sure, lots of MAGA Republicans won’t care about the fact that their messiah is a crook. They’d vote for him if he shot someone on Fifth Avenue, as Trump himself has bragged in the past. Democrats, meanwhile, were never going to vote for him. Neither matter. The most important constituency in American politics isn’t committed partisans (who should be committed, most days). It’s registered Independents. Those people decide presidential elections. And they are the ones who don’t, and won’t, shrug that twelve of Don the Con’s peers unanimously decided he broke the law 34 times.
7. Which is why it’s so hard for MAGA nutbars to spin this one away as a Biden-led conspiracy: Agent Orange was convicted, unanimously, by twelve regular citizens – include some who admitted they use Trump’s Truth Social platform to get their news. Saying there’s a judge-led conspiracy is always easy. Saying twelve regular folks conspired against you is a lot harder.
8. His sentence may not include jail time. But it ain’t gonna be nothing. Why? Because Cadet Bone Spur repeatedly (and insanely) attacked the judge, the lawyers, and the entire legal system, every single day for weeks. That’s what judges call “showing no remorse.” A lack of remorse is a major, major factor in sentencing. It’ll be a factor when the judge brings his gavel down on July 11.
9. Biden and the Democrats now have a smoother ride to re-election. Sorry, MAGA knuckle-draggers, but they do. You can write the attack ads yourself: just show average Americans saying, straight to camera: “I don’t want a convicted criminal to be my president.” It’ll work. Trust me.
10. I’ve worked for Jean Chretien. I’ve worked for Joe Biden. Their political opponents always, always make the same mistake: they underestimate them. Biden was being underestimated by American pundits and politicos. Now, it’s impossible to do that. One candidate is a convicted felon. The other isn’t. Some days, that’s all you need to know.
But again, what do I know about politics? I’m just a dumb Canadian lawyer and former advisor to a Canadian Prime Minister.
Pay me no mind. Keep doing what you’re doing, Republicans.
Please.
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The swing voters care about out-of-control immigration; cost of living, crime.
Canada and the U.S.: parallel tracks.
As for the Donald, this matter is nothing more than an inconvenience.
Suspect he’ll romp in November.
Douglas,
If memory serves, it’s about 15% percent of Trump supporters who would at least hesitate to vote for him in the general now that he’s a convicted felon. If they weren’t lying, that margin is enough to get Biden over the top both in the popular vote and, depending how it splits, in the Electoral College.
Neither result will surprise me.
He may win in November but I doubt very much that he will “romp”. The overwhelming majority of US Presidential elections are very close. Landslides are rare, and they’re usually electoral college landslides (like Reagan’s in 1984) that are distorted pictures of overall voter sentiment when matched against the popular vote.
Trump has an advantage in current polls that’s consistent, but it’s not huge, it’s within the margin of error.
Trump should be grateful for Alvin Bragg.
Warren,
2. It kind of depends. In this country, former heads of government must still travel on a green or purple passport. Ditto for former cabinet ministers. So, the likely answer is Yes.
3. Depending on state election laws in New York and New Jersey, his secondary residences, he may still be able to vote.
Joe Biden promised to unify the nation, and he has.
But not the way he wanted.
4. Haley has sold out. From the moment she said she’d vote for Trump. Hell, MM has even mused about having her in his administration.
6. I think Biden will get a plurality but not a majority of Independents.
Warren,
Here’s the first one.
From AlterNet:
“First post-verdict [Morning Consult] poll confirms independents are now distancing themselves from Trump”
“According to the poll, 54% of respondents supported the 12-person jury’s unanimous verdict finding Trump guilty of covering up violations of election law by paying hush money to various women in advance of the 2016 presidential election. 34% of voters registered disapproval with the convictions, with the remainder undecided.”
“In addition to the approval of the verdict, a significant portion (49%) of independents polled think Trump should drop out of the 2024 race given his guilty verdict. Roughly 15% of Republican voters polled said the same, and even 8% of respondents who identified as Trump supporters thought he should suspend his campaign.”
8. Like this novel conviction based on federal-inspired felonies, I expect an innovative and ground-breaking sentence from Merchan.
9. It ain’t in a bag yet, but it’s starting to look good for Biden.
Ronald,
Providing Biden doesn’t nod off during the June 27th debate.
10. Sure, Biden is being underestimated. But it doesn’t matter in the end who the predictor is. Look to 2015 when everyone and his dog said Harper was going to be returned. Not me. Nailed it! LOL.
Can anyone out there help me get in the head of this hypothetical Trumpet/Republican/Independent who watched the last seven months unfold, with all of the evidence and testimony being presented in wall-to-wall coverage but still supported Trump up until the point that a jury declared him guilty?
I just don’t see that happening, even in a country of 340 million. You either love or hate the guy by now.
To wit, the Fox Poll reports people as “less likely”…as in, they weren’t necessarily committed Trump voters to begin with.
Warren,
I think the answer to many of your questions will depend on who wins in November.
Take #2 for example. I don’t know how Canadian Border agents would respond to Mr Trump attempting to cross the border into Canada. But I do think the likelihood of agents turning away Trump at the border decreases significantly if he is U.S president.
Conversely, how often has a 77-year-old Mr Trump travelled outside of the U.S. since leaving office? I suspect the odds of Mr Trump attempting to cross the border into Canada diminish significantly if Mr Biden is re-elected.
It would appear that he has the UFC fan base vote locked up:
https://x.com/BRICSinfo/status/1797087577767395770
Warren,
Cognitive dissonance time! First, Trump says the trial is rigged and now that he’s OK with going to jail. Good. I’m also OK with him going to jail.
Of course, that’s bullshit. He also says it’ll be the breaking point for his supporters if he’s sentenced to jail. Cowardly lion time.
RE: Your points #6 and #9, I’ll just leave this here:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-campaign-raises-staggering-200-million-thursday-conviction
If money made presidents, Perot and DuPont would have their own presidential libraries by now.
100% agree, it’s tougher to buy the White House than it is to buy Congress, but in this case it’s the source of the donors since the verdict dropped, and how that maps out to individual voter (donor) intention. Mind you, the source of this info is one of the mini-Trumps, so who really knows how true it is?
My mom doesn’t like Donald Trump. She’s far more to the left than I am. Even so, she doesn’t agree with what was done to him. In her opinion, it was excessive, and Joe Biden is afraid of losing.
If they’re out here arresting former Presidents for crimes, then what chance does the average American have of getting away with their own?
Seems to be the actual question being asked on every right wing broadcast now.
Gilbert,
He deserves everything he gets and so much MORE. I’m told that a certain body of case law suggests that probation and/or fine is the standard and appropriate remedy in such cases. But No, POS had to deliberately violate the gag order innumerable times. I hope he gets plenty of jail time, but I expect that he will receive a nominal jail sentence and that it will be suspended by Judge Merchan. What he deserves is a year in jail. At least, Trump is already guaranteed to burn in Hell. Small comfort for the rest of us.
Only God can decide who goes to hell. As the Bible says, “Judge not lest you be judged.”
Gilbert,
I’d gladly go in a New York minute, just as long as I know that Trump got there before me.