It’s thanks to Douglas that I called this one right. As soon as he enlightened us about the high number of advanced polls voters, I was pretty sure that we (the CPC) had it in the bag. Without Douglas’ help, not so sure I would have predicted a Conservative win.
These days, I don’t take any seat for granted. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun could be in play. I wonder what the local polls are like? I’ll even go so far as to say that Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Westmount is probably also in play in the general. Now, that would be something. (Regards to Marc.)
I suspect the Conservatives will take a pass on LaSalle—Émard—Verdun.
No big whoop if they don’t take the riding.
The Conservatives have been noticeably quiet about Quebec, which makes me wonder if they’re intentionally keeping their powder dry.
No doubt, they’re recruiting star candidates, and one name I keep hearing is Ben Mulroney.
What a story that would be if he ran for the Conservatives in the next general election.
He would have enough star power to win a seat on the island of Montreal.
Ronald-no way you went to bed confident of a win unless you know when the advanced polls come in(still not clear on how that works-it had to be the 192nd poll and why would they not have that released first?).
100% confident? I doubt it. It is still Toronto after all.
But it is a truth that the overwhelming majority of the time, when advanced polls show massive turnout, it is bad news for the incumbent. Worse so in a by-election, where on average far fewer voters show up.
But you know our politics are in fantastic shape when the Rhinoceros Party are able to cobble together nearly 1,000 votes in one riding (59 for the registered candidate, the rest split amongst 77 “independent” candidates protesting electoral reform, all organized by the Rhino leader). Just a few votes shy of the Green turnout. Sad, because they make more realistic promises than the Greens.
I would have to check on Elections Canada’s website, but it’s my understanding that advanced polls results are usually counted last in most jurisdictions. But I could be wrong on that.
He doesn’t have time for that. There is no way he can completely upend the electoral system with less than a year till the next vote by the time Parliament comes back.
Changing the law so that a run off election is held between the top two vote getters in each riding, would be fairly easy to implement provided the NDP supported it.
The run off election would be one or two weeks after the primary election.
Freeland, Miller and Guilbeault want Trudeau to stay. No kidding. No word yet from Pablo. But seriously, no minister will say that he’s got to go. Otherwise, they’re out of cabinet in a New York minute.
For the record, I want Trudeau to stay too! PLEASE.
There are five stages of escaping the Justin cult:
1. Denial
2. Denial
3. Denial
4. Denial
5. Spontaneous combustion.
The Barb Army is out in force online.
All non-Trudeau voters in Toronto St-Paul’s are:
A. Racist
B. Sexist
C. Homophobic
D. Dupes
E. Je……Zionists!!
Warren,
It’s thanks to Douglas that I called this one right. As soon as he enlightened us about the high number of advanced polls voters, I was pretty sure that we (the CPC) had it in the bag. Without Douglas’ help, not so sure I would have predicted a Conservative win.
Good thing I didn’t make it up: LOL
As an aside, next federal by-election is slated for LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, Lametti’s former riding.
Sure win for the Liberals, right Ronald?
Douglas,
These days, I don’t take any seat for granted. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun could be in play. I wonder what the local polls are like? I’ll even go so far as to say that Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Westmount is probably also in play in the general. Now, that would be something. (Regards to Marc.)
Ronald,
I suspect the Conservatives will take a pass on LaSalle—Émard—Verdun.
No big whoop if they don’t take the riding.
The Conservatives have been noticeably quiet about Quebec, which makes me wonder if they’re intentionally keeping their powder dry.
No doubt, they’re recruiting star candidates, and one name I keep hearing is Ben Mulroney.
What a story that would be if he ran for the Conservatives in the next general election.
He would have enough star power to win a seat on the island of Montreal.
Douglas,
Wonder what Caroline thinks of those rumours?
Ronald-no way you went to bed confident of a win unless you know when the advanced polls come in(still not clear on how that works-it had to be the 192nd poll and why would they not have that released first?).
100% confident? I doubt it. It is still Toronto after all.
But it is a truth that the overwhelming majority of the time, when advanced polls show massive turnout, it is bad news for the incumbent. Worse so in a by-election, where on average far fewer voters show up.
But you know our politics are in fantastic shape when the Rhinoceros Party are able to cobble together nearly 1,000 votes in one riding (59 for the registered candidate, the rest split amongst 77 “independent” candidates protesting electoral reform, all organized by the Rhino leader). Just a few votes shy of the Green turnout. Sad, because they make more realistic promises than the Greens.
Jason,
Agreed.
Martin,
I would have to check on Elections Canada’s website, but it’s my understanding that advanced polls results are usually counted last in most jurisdictions. But I could be wrong on that.
Ron I would say you are right on advanced counting last this has always been my understanding working as a scrutineer for several elections
Dear Justin
Perhaps voters decided they didn’t want their hard earned money going to support your extravagant travel, dining, and lifestyle.
Especially since New Democrats are now copying your travel.
If Justin resigns, does any Liberal really want his job?
Perhaps the best course for the Liberals is to call an election. The Liberals would lose, but the Conservatives would inherit a mess.
The new Liberal leader would have four years to build up a winning team, while the media takes on the role of opposition.
Alternatively, Justin can try to replace first past the post voting with ranked ballot voting, or run off elections between the top two vote getters.
He doesn’t have time for that. There is no way he can completely upend the electoral system with less than a year till the next vote by the time Parliament comes back.
Changing the law so that a run off election is held between the top two vote getters in each riding, would be fairly easy to implement provided the NDP supported it.
The run off election would be one or two weeks after the primary election.
Warren,
Freeland, Miller and Guilbeault want Trudeau to stay. No kidding. No word yet from Pablo. But seriously, no minister will say that he’s got to go. Otherwise, they’re out of cabinet in a New York minute.
For the record, I want Trudeau to stay too! PLEASE.