— Feature, Musings —06.25.2024 08:38 AM
My latest: bears, earthquakes and a by-election
I woke up. It was around 3 AM.
The cause: a security camera alert at my cabin, outside Bancroft. Something big.
I got up and quietly moved to the couch in another room, so as to avoid waking up E.
I looked at the camera. It wasn’t an earthquake – that was going to come about an hour or so later – it was a bear. She (I think it was a she) was sniffing around at the edge of the woods, looking utterly unafraid. I sat on the couch and watched her for a while until she disappeared.
It was shortly after that that I got the online alert from one of the reporters who had pulled the night shift. There had indeed been an earthquake, in Midtown Toronto.
Not of the seismic kind. Another kind of earthquake: a political one. The Liberal Party of Canada, formerly the most successful political machine in Western democracy, had just gone down to defeat in an election in the riding of St. Paul’s. The Tories had won. Narrowly, but they won.
By-elections often get dismissed by journalists and politicos as irrelevant – so often, perhaps, that voters start to believe them. So they don’t turn out. But in St. Paul’s, nearly 50 per cent of them did. For a by-election, in a riding that has been safely Liberal for three decades, that’s a big turnout. It’s a big deal.
And, while just a by-election, one that won’t change who gets to be Canada’s government, it was big, big, big. So big, it’s hard to put into words.
My friend and neighbor, author David Frum, tried. Here’s how he described the significance of the result: “This is roughly equivalent to a Republican winning a special election for a House of Representatives seat in west side Los Angeles.” My cruder take on X, having been rendered fully awake by a bear, and having predicted it could never happen: “The Trudeau Liberals are so, so f**ked.”
St. Paul’s is what political operatives like to call a “flyover” riding. As in, the leader and his or her marquee candidates don’t need to ever come there to campaign. It’s already in the bag. Nothing to worry about.
But for weeks, the Trudeau Liberals were indeed worried. They shipped staff from Ottawa to work there for the hapless Grit candidate, Leslie Church. Half of cabinet showed up to stump for her. Trudeau made clear that she was likely to be a minister when – not if – she won.
But she didn’t win. She lost.
As in any win or loss, the factors are myriad and multiple. Trudeau leads a tired old government, one that has made too many missteps on the economic front, and had too many scandals on the morality front.
But in St. Paul’s, where there is a not-insubstantial Jewish population, Trudeau’s regime alienated Jewish families who have felt isolated and ignored by their own government, while waves of antisemitism crashed all round them. If Leslie Church received a single Jewish vote, I would be astounded. It more than accounted for the final margin.
And so, she lost. If Church is to be remembered for anything, it will be for losing one of the safest seats there is.
And Justin Trudeau? What about him?
He has to go. He has to leave. Everyone knows it, although perhaps not him. Not yet.
St. Paul’s wasn’t just a by-election, you see. It was actually a referendum in disguise – a referendum on the most unpopular Prime Minister in more than a generation. More than anything else, it was about him.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, now resemble that big bear I saw on an early-morning security camera: unwavering, unafraid, mostly unbeatable.
Time to head off into the woods, Justin Trudeau. A big Tory bear is coming your way.
Warren,
Let’s interpret this win with logic à la Telford: when they win, it’s all about Trudeau. When they lose, it’s NEVER about Trudeau. Oh, right.
They’ll quickly try that one out on the caucus to see how it plays. The cabinet is locked in, so it’s up to individual MPs whether a caucus earthquake occurs.
Warren,
Ghio has an interesting perspective: he says all potential leaders poll below Trudeau and cites Angus Reid. He also says that Trudeau could have fewer seats than Ignatieff won.
If he’s right, a new leader must come from out of caucus, and Carney doesn’t fit the bill to turn this around. I can think of a couple of household Liberal big names who would make a good start at turning this around.
I don’t see any potentials. The problem is most of the MPs have sided with Trudeau so much that it’s not really the Liberal Party anymore, it’s the Trudeau party. There would have to be the kind of housecleaning that only a massive election loss can create.
That said I – as a Conservative – hope Trudeau doesn’t resign right away. I want him to stick around until it’s too late for the party to get a new leader in place comfortably before the next election.
Ronald,
Trudeau is bent on taking the party over the cliff.
Which means JT is staying.
Douglas,
I agree that he won’t go willingly but have they got the balls to make him go unwillingly? Nope is my impression.
Maybe if polling becomes persistent at Ignatieff levels. (Sorry, Michael.)
Within caucus who doesn’t actually 100% owe the seat they won to Trudeau? Methinks it’s a very small number. Who is there that is young enough to appeal and is not beholden? A much smaller number.
This is very simply not your dad’s (or my dad’s) liberal party. This is the cult of personality beholden to Trudeau.
A true liberal party only raises from the ashes. The fire began under Ignatieff, or maybe Martin and will only cool enough to sift through the ashes when the final pillars fall IF there is anyone left who wants to rebuild the brand.
I’m not saying the liberals won’t win again but these are not Chrétienites they are not even Martinites. They are almost all Turdo-nites. A liberal win under this definition is a departure from what used to be. Even his disputed father didn’t have this non-liberal a government.
Are Trudeau and Freeland feeling cold. cruel, and small?
I blame Brendan Shanahan and Mark Shapiro for everything bad that happens in Toronto.
watch for agents of the PRC funding and promoting a LPC-ND party merger to increase the likely hood of a continuation of some form of Trudeau gov’t past the next election and the ongoing transition to a command style society and economy.
Or some sort of electoral reform before the next election.
Leslie Church sounds like the perfect Toronto name, just like Jane St. Clair.
Chrystia Freeland didn’t expect so many cold, cruel and small voters.
Well the party better get it together and push him out soon. Time’s a-wastin’. Unlike Ronald above, I think Carney does fit the bill as sufficiently business friendly and not much associated in voters’ minds with Trudeau or Freeland . Now then, I only mean fit the bill as in he can save them enough seats to become Opposition and not fall back to third place. But no matter who takes over no one is going to help them remain in government, those days are long past.
Warren,
This is the saddest day I’ve ever seen in politics. Biden gave his all, but it wasn’t enough. Frankly, I was in shock when I saw his voice give out at the beginning of the debate. And then it didn’t get much better. I want to watch it again without the sound, but I think I could not bear it.
Trump was better — lied pretty much about everything and showed once again that he’s a Class A Asshole, but so many voters don’t care.
So Trump “won” tonight and my candidate unintentionally buried his campaign. Biden simply can’t continue. Just imagine the MAGA ads from the debate that’ll air continuously in the campaign. Poor Biden is done. I pray he finds the humility and common sense to drop out of this race. Otherwise, the demon seed is on his way right back into the White House. Trump must be beaten at any and all costs. Biden can’t do that. Not a chance in hell.