Feature, Musings —07.16.2024 01:46 AM
—My latest: America at war – with itself
Okay, I’ll take the wheel, here. Just for a bit.
Why? Well, you guys don’t come here to get my analysis of how well the Secret Service do their job. Although, if you ask me, I think the Secret Service will be considered a full-fledged member of the Deep State before the sun goes down tonight. If they aren’t already.
I’m not an expert on the Secret Service or how to protect Presidents, Premiers and Prime Ministers. I’ve gotten lots of credible death threats over the years, too, so I’ve interacted with police and security experts. And I learned, long ago, to defer to their expertise and judgment. But man oh man, are the Secret Service in for a rough Summer.
And you don’t come here for my take on U.S. gun laws, either. I consciously stopped commenting on mass shootings in the United States years ago. I figured that, if the mass murder of twenty five-year-old kids at Sandy Hook didn’t change them, nothing would. Not the shooting of presidents or presidential candidates, either.
They’ll continue to kill each other, because they are a nation at war with itself. Where a twenty-year-old who hasn’t even voted yet can get his hands on an assault rifle.
So, you don’t come here for any of that. You come here to get my political take, because I’ve been involved with political stuff for a long time. So, here it is. Five things.
One, it’s 113 days until Americans line up to vote. Donald Trump was already ahead, and he’ll be even more ahead now. But – but, but – it’s 113 days, which is several lifetimes in politics. So he’ll say or do something outrageous, and it’ll tighten up again, a bit.
But, as Brian Lilley and Charles Adler and Tasha Kheririddin said this morning, it’ll make Trump’s base even more convinced that he is the literal messiah. It’ll firm up his vote, big time. And he’s going to enter the Republican convention this week even stronger than he was before. Which is to say, strong. The vote may be 113 days away, but he’s the one to beat, right now.
Two, Joe Biden – who I worked for last time – has pulled his ads, changed his schedule, and is laying low. He was already going to lay low during the GOP convention. Sure. But, now, Democrats are going to be agonizing over every damn thing they do. Their internal debates – which had already spilled out into the open, after Biden’s disastrous presidential debate – are going to get a lot more challenging.
Abortion and Trump will continue to work for them as a strategy. That hasn’t changed. But the other attack? The one about the importance of democracy? That one is now a lot harder. Republicans will say American democracy is ruined and, after an attempted assassination of their candidate last night, lots of people will agree with them.
Three, I think NATO, the EU, America’s allies and American governmental institutions will start treating Trump like he’s already president. You can see that in their post-shooting comments last night. They think he’s won, now. They’re going to start changing their approach to Trump. They didn’t want Trump, but they think Trump is what they’re going to get. So, light’s out, NATO, Ukraine, Taiwan and free trade. Those are gone when and if he wins, and they all know it.
Four, Justin Trudeau. Canada’s Prime Minister is running out of time, and he has run out of moves. All that he had left was a possible Trump win. Because – sorry, Team Tory – many Canadians won’t want Pierre Poilievre in the Prime Minister’s Office when Donald Trump is in the Oval Office. They’ll want an alternative to the craziness they believe, correctly, is coming our way.
Is it enough to narrow a twenty-point gap? No, not right now. But it’ll make a difference. Canadians are big believers in alternation – Team Red at one level, Team Blue at the other level. Hell, even Calgarians do that – they’ve been electing Tory Premiers and Liberal mayors for decades.
Trump coming back will spook Canadian voters. And Trudeau will make full and frequent use of a second Trump presidency. Believe it.
Five: we live in a dangerous world – a world more dangerous than I can ever remember. As someone said to me when we went out for dinner last night, we are seeing things in 2024 that we all thought we’d never see again.
And an assassin’s bullet made everything more dangerous.
We are heading into a dark, dark place, my friends, and no one has the wheel.
Warren,
Hate feeds on hate. So, political behaviour is key when it comes to countering or reducing the hate level. Trump needs to change the way he does politics. Otherwise, the risk of a copycat shooting attempt inevitably rises exponentially. A sane politician would do all he or she can to increase the odds that this assassination attempt was a one-off. As for Trump, what will he do? We’re about to find out fast.
Ronald,
He’s going to milk this for all it’s worth.
His supporters and surrogates certainly are.
This is a repeat of 1912 when Roosevelt spoke, while bleeding with a bullet in his chest. His written speech in his chest pocket saved him.
The result of that is unfolding now and will continue.
As always history repeats itself.
Dems best line of attack was: Trump will undermine democracy.
Democracy is not safe with this guy (Trump).
Well, they no longer can play that card.
Nothing undermines democracy more than a political assassination attempt.
Trump was a victim of that — fairly or unfairly, the optics suggest that it came from the other side.
So, the Democrats can no longer can go there.
“Trump coming back will spook Canadian voters.”
Spook some Canadian voters, perhaps.
Many see Biden as being controlled by the elites.
Canadians have had enough of the liberal elites in this country.
“Many Canadians won’t want Pierre Poilievre in the Prime Minister’s Office when Donald Trump is in the Oval Office.”
Well, they sure as hell don’t want Trudeau.
He’s the laughing stock of the free world.
G20 leaders see him as a lightweight; a phony and a fraud; a youngster; and wonder how Canada could have elected such a buffoon.
Desperate card to play by Justin: Me, and only me alone, can stand up to Trump.
Really?
Go ahead and play that card because … it may as well be the only card you have left to play. Go for it, JT.
Finally, the Conservative war room is shrewd.
They’re going to be cagey with the Trump file.
They’ll say little because they know folks are more concerned about surviving, than thinking about the Donald.
People want a chance to succeed; to do better.
Or, at the very least, to hold onto what they got.
All they know is that it’s not going to happen with Team Trudeau.
Liberals are lucky to be at 23% in public support.
For them, it’s not going to get any better.
The issue with the Conservatives and Pierre if Trump is elected is how much party discipline he can exercise on the (as Doug Ford would call them) “yahoos” on his back benches. If Trump and/or his supporters do something crazy and some Tory MPs are openly supporting those things that’s going to scare enough suburban voters (ethnic communities and women whom the Tories court and need to win with) to hold their nose and vote for someone else. Harper had the power and respect to hold those guys and gals in line (though, even in his Reform days he clashed with Preston Manning’s belief about bottom/up politics). Pierre’s inability to resist the lure of populism at times may come back to bite him in the rear
Right now, populism is the flavour of the month.
Douglas,
Amen to that.
I don’t think the Liberals will play ‘the ‘Trump’ card if they think they have the slightest chance of reforming government. George W Bush ignored Canadian politicians using him as an electoral punching bag, because why would the leader of the Free World bother, with third rate Canadian MPs unknown in their own country let alone anywhere else.
But Trump, oh no, bash him and he will bash back. The risks to a Trudeau government enraging that man are simply too high.
One of the few things known about the shooter is that he was a registered Republican. Not that this will change anyone’s opinion of anything.
And who did he donate money to?
$15 to a group that encourages everyone to vote. The very definition of evil.
Jason
The Shooter gave money to ActBlue.
From ActBlue website:
“donors are giving steadily to Democratic candidates and causes”
and:
“small-dollar donors are focused on taking back the House and holding the Senate for Democrats. ”
Sounds like a Democrat supporter.
Well, he owned and carried a fuckton more than $15 worth of firearms. Another hallmark of liberals everywhere.
Jason
Are you suggesting liberals in the US don’t own guns?
If anything good comes out of the assassination attempt, we’ll see more careful language from both sides, much better security and higher voter turnout.
“If.”
Republicans didn’t even wait until they were certain Trump was secured and the shooter subdued before asking the question “how can we milk this?” Even Fox News, not that I expect even basic human decency from them, were dipping their toes in the “how do we pin this on Biden without getting sued for another $700 million” waters.
Exactly. It’s a “Blame the Dems” orgy right now in the right-wing media and commentariat.
Jason
At the same time many Democrats were saying it was staged.
I prefer evidence to assumption.
But, on it’s face, the claim that Trump nicked his own ear under the podium a la WWE is far more plausible than basically every stupid right wing conspiracy that showed up since the dawn of the original Trump campaign.
“I prefer evidence to assumption.”
Good for you. Now please provide your evidence that Trump nicked his own ear under the podium.
Conspiracy theories like the one that the Hunter Laptop was real?
Biden and 50 odd intelligence experts called it Russian disinformation.
oh wait… the DOJ used it to convict Hunter Biden.
And the conspiracy theory that President Biden has some type of dementia? Come on man. Biden is as sharp as a tack!
I said “plausible.” Martin Scorsese couldn’t have staged that event for Hollywood any better if he tried. People typically don’t pop their heads up seconds after getting shot to start a “fight” chant among their fans.
Then again, people typically don’t stare directly at the sun, but…
Jason
You lead off with “I prefer evidence to assumption.”
Then you digress into a conspiracy theory.
“many Democrats” = a bunch of isolated nobodies on social media. I defy you to name an actual prominent or senior Democrat who has said that. Let’s hear it.
(Crickets)
The biggest knock on Biden was that he was old, frail, weak. A lot of Democrats (correctly) countered that Trump was only three years young and was also old. HOWEVER, standing up and engaging his crowd right after being SHOT?! That’s strength and that makes the contrast even more clearly with (as Warren rightfully says) the world looking like a more dark and dangerous place. Optics/perceptions matter and this was the worst possible case scenario for the Biden ticket.
The irony is that Trump’s lawyers argued before the Supreme Court that Biden can order Seal Team 6 to take Trump out and cannot be charged criminally for this. I think Biden should come out and say he ordered the hit and it’s perfectly legal, just to wind up Trump and his supporters.
Doc,
It would do far more than wind them up. Not a good idea.
Can you imagine being some poor Democratic door knocker that?
“Trump’s lawyers argued before the Supreme Court that Biden can order Seal Team 6 to take Trump out and cannot be charged criminally for this.”
Doctor
When and where did Trump’s lawyers say this?
Try this miraculous thingy called google. They made this argument during the immunity case before the SCC, in response to questioning from the bench.
Trump’s lawyers made the seal Team 6 argument before the SCC?
or in a Federal Court?
Regardless, the SCC said that immunity for former presidents is “absolute” with respect to their “core constitutional powers,” Roberts wrote, and a former president has “at least a presumptive immunity” for “acts within the outer perimeter of his official responsibility,” meaning prosecutors face a high legal bar to overcome that presumption.
Is ordering Seal Team 6 to kill an American citizen a core constitutional power? I don’t think so, and I can’t find that in the US Constitution.
If Presidents don’t have immunity, Obama could be charged with murder. Yes, you could argue that perhaps those American citizens deserved to die in Obama’s drone strikes, but if there is no Presidential immunity, shouldn’t that be decided in a court of law?
Personally I think Obama is covered by the Presidential immunity ruling. And his drone strikes are good actions.
I think the SCC made the right ruling. If it isn’t, then please bring Obama, Bush, and Clinton up on charges.
Warren,
I wonder how long I can stomach their convention tonight? Hose and stomach pump handy!
Warren,
Trump arrives. Incredibly powerful moment.
He looks like a changed man. A guy who has contemplated what the gift of life is truly about. We’ll see what the speech is like later this week.
This is a huge plus for his campaign. Ironically so.
Warren,
From: The Canadian Press
“MacKinnon says Liberals ‘foursquare’ behind Trudeau
Liberal MP Steven MacKinnon has been sworn in as the federal Liberals’ new minister for labour and seniors. He insists that his caucus is firmly behind Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, while admitting his party has challenges communicating its message to Canadians.”
Yeah, right. Where’s MacKinnon’s petition, signed by every single MP, urging Trudeau to stay as PM? I guess he forgot it in the limousine.