Musings —10.14.2024 08:28 AM
—My political gut
Always trust my gut over polls. My gut is telling me Harris is slowly losing the election.
I’m a war room guy, so I always favor bringing the heat. Harris hasn’t.
Maybe the Dems figure the polls will panic their vote. All I know is: whatever they’re doing? It hasn’t worked.
I definitely thought she’d be pulling consistently ahead in the polls by now. But she just isn’t.
One theory that will give comfort to Democrats is that pollsters, having been burned twice by Trump election over-performance (vs prior polls), are overcompensating this time by overweighting pro-Trump demos in their samples. I’m sure there’s at least some of that occurring.
The Republicans released a pretty good ad over the weekend. It’s simply 4 minutes of Kamala using the exact same meaningless gobbledygook word salad phrase dozens of times. Really encapsulates why many just aren’t interested in what she has to say, since she says little if anything that is substantive or direct. This isn’t analogous to, for example, Poilievre’s incessant “Axe the tax” (it’s even starting to annoy *me*, and I’m a supporter) which is simply a repetition of a clear and specific policy goal. Add to that the fact she clearly hasn’t prepared answers to what should be obvious questions – what is your first 100-day plan, etc.
Does ANYONE really know what her priorities are, policy-wise?
The only questions she is comfortable answering involve abortion. She shines on that issue, whether you agree with her or not. But that may not cut it.
+1
Full disclosure I’m cheering for Harris (really more cheering against Trump), but I agree. This is a lot like 2016, in the sense that the Democrats when running against Trump think that’s all they really have to do — i.e., shit all over Trump. It’s maddening to me. They should be talking about what they actually plan to do, particularly on bread and butter issues.
Just like when Hillary was running, I bet you if you put microphones in front of a representative bunch of US voters and asked them what is actually in the Democratic Party platform, you’d get mostly blank stares.
Harris, slowly losing: yes.
Trump, controlling the narrative.
Speaking the language of voter concerns: affordability + immigration.
Harris must counter, and say: here’s how I’ll be different from my boss.
But she seems reluctant. Hence the slide.
Harris says she’s the change candidate, but also says she wouldn’t do anything different from Biden.
Oh joy!
The Democratic Party also basically conceded the field to the Republicans on immigration for years. An example of what Ruy Texiera brilliantly called the Fox News Fallacy (look up the article, it’s excellent).
A very very stupid thing to do, and it’s costing them big time now.
I have a hard time believing she won’t pull it off. If she doesn’t, or the election ends up being settled in the courts, I fear for America (more than I do already). That being said, I’m a Canadian, and I think we spend far too much time on American politics. Just my 2 cents folks. Hope everybody had a good Thanksgiving.
America will be fine no matter what happens. Even lefites like Bill Maher who hates T agrees with that sentiment. The literal proof is that it survived his last presidency. “But this time will be different” sounds exactly like Harper’s enemies and the hidden agenda. There are checks and balances down there. Unlike up here and we have seen the mess that got us into. Imagine if an uncontrollable egotistical narcissist like Trump was PM up here…oh wait a minute.
Good point (especially the comparison).
When one is measuring, how fucked up the United States of America is today – if Kamala Harris says “I am running against Donald Trump” That should be more than enough to gather 80% of the vote.
I like to think she will pull it out, but I agree with Warren – Harris / Walz are slipping.
I chose to post here because I can’t disagree more with the idea that as Canadians we spend too much time on American politics. The outcome of this election could do more to change the sovereignty of our land than anything since American rebels failed to convince us to join the fight against the British.
We should be very worried and I am not one who thinks a Democrat’s treatment of Canada will be great, it will only be much less bad.
I couldn’t disagree more. I can’t think of one instance where our sovereignty was challenged the last time President Trump was in office. The fact is, Canada is an afterthought in the US, far behind Mexico. I know Canadians like to think we’re considered a big deal down in Washington, but the truth is we’re not. There is nothing up here that the Americans want (that we won’t already sell them).
And then what happens?
Agree 100%. Momentum stalled about a month ago.
One big thing I’ve been noticing: Trump is simply better at getting attention because he is excellent TV. I’m a die hard Harris person even though I’m Canadian. Almost every day over the last month, I could tell you something about what Trump was doing that day even though most of the time it was silly or dangerous. When he’s on TV, most people don’t change the channel, even if you hate the guy..
When it comes to Harris, that attention grabbing just isn’t there. In an election this close, the battle is for minimal information persuadable people. Trump is still getting their attention and Harris is not.
What happens next?
A trite comment, I know, but “when will there be a candidate I can vote for, rather than against”? This applies, Canada & the U.S.
This is a trademark Warren Kinsella prediction where he wins either way! He is wrong and happy or he is right and looks very prescient. I am sure he would rather be the former.
This depresses the shit out of me. Sigh. 4 more years of that fucking turd? Jesus help us. And I’m an atheist lol.
Warren, I share the same gut feeling as you. That is Trump is slowly squeeking out a win.
Having said that, I should clarify I correctly predicted the results of every U.S. presidential election since Regean beat Carter with the exception of Trump.
I thought Clinton would win in 2016, and was suprised Biden won in 2020.
For what it’s worth I was in port Huron Michigan today. Couldn’t see a single Harris/walz sign (was looking). Trump/vance? You couldn’t swing a dead cat without hitting one. Scary