My latest: it’s the economy, but you’re not stupid

It’s the economy, stupid.

Democratic strategist James Carville famously uttered those words first, during the 1992 US presidential campaign. They’ve become the accepted political wisdom ever since.

What’s fascinating is that, in that election year, the economy should have worked against Carville and his candidate, Bill Clinton. In that election cycle, you see, Vice President George H.W. Bush’s verbal gaffes – “read my lips,” etcetera – seriously damaged the Republican’s public image, yes. But what is surprising, still, is that the GOP lost the White House despite significant GDP growth plus approval ratings as high as 89 per cent following victory in the Persian Gulf War in 1991.

Decades of data show that the state of the economy determines election outcomes, in the United States, Canada and across Western democracy. It’s the economy, stupid, as Carville said.

Incumbents – which Kamala Harris effectively was – almost always have an electoral advantage. But that isn’t true when there’s been a recession or some economic calamity. Like, say, a pandemic which retailers used as an excuse to gouge consumers.

As financial analysts Goldman Sachs observed a year ago, in what should have been a warning to the Biden-Harris administration: “Since 1951, when the constitutional amendment was ratified to limit presidents to two terms, the incumbent has lost when the election took place soon after a recession (in 1976, 1980, 1992, and 2020). The party in the White House also lost after a recession in two instances when the incumbent candidate was not on the ballot (1960 and 2008).”

Except, except, Democrats will protest: there wasn’t a recession in 2023-2024! There actually has been lots of growth!

So why did the economy kill the Harris campaign, then? (And, make no mistake, it did: “inflation is too high under the Biden-Harris administration” was the number one cited reason why Americans voted for Trump, exit polls reported this week. People crossing the border illegally was the second-ranked reason.)

Sorry, Democrats: what voters think is the reality is the reality. Whether, um, it’s the reality or not.

[To read more, subscribe here]