— Musings —12.30.2024 04:22 PM
Sixteen per cent
At moments like this, I think back to the days when Liberals told me I was wrong about Justin Trudeau and that I should join their movement. And I smile.
— Musings —12.30.2024 04:22 PM
At moments like this, I think back to the days when Liberals told me I was wrong about Justin Trudeau and that I should join their movement. And I smile.
Wow-I wonder what that is in seat counts.
Ok-just found the prediction-6 seats. I have questions for the folks in those ridings.
That made me laugh out loud – thanks for that!
Here are the ridings(although now they are saying Nate will survive I think):
Seamus’s riding-not running
Moncton-Dieppe-someone named Ginette Taylor-although 338 says CPC
Dom-Kim Campbell junior
Halifax-no MP there currently and never heard of the last guy
Acadie-Cormier-never heard of him
Saint Leonard-Lattanzio-never heard of her
Kim Campbell got 16% of the vote in 1993. (No new leader bounce)
Just saying – this could get ugly.
People may have hated Mulroney as much as they hate Trudeau today BUT 34% of the electorate still voted for some form of Conservative Party. I’d wager that maybe 10-20% “blue leaning” liked and voted for centrist liberal leader Jean Chrétien. I’m saying moderate conservativism had many options today – only 1.
I feel the term blue liberal is noteworthy. Never heard it much till past year or so. Are these pink Tories of old?
I don’t see what changes to dislodge blue votes in fact maybe more are still to leave liberal brand for an election or two?
On the Canada Day weekend in 1993 she had become the most popular PM in the history of polling.
Don’t tell me the reality I lived.
The first couple polls of the election campaign had the PCs and Liberals basically tied. The Tories proceeded to run one of the worst campaigns ever while the Liberals ran one of the best (and I’m not saying that to pump your tires, WK, it’s just the facts).
Given Mulroney’s unpopularity, the Tories were probably destined to lose, but had they run an even slightly competent campaign, they probably could have salvaged 40-50 seats and maybe held off Reform and the Bloc enough to form the Official Opposition. Even Turner’s trainwreck of a campaign in 1984 was enough to save the furniture.
The reality I lived in 1993? I was hammering in red signs for the local liberal candidate (Pat O’Brian) I was calling outraged to Tory campaign office swearing off my vote because of the mockery of Jean Chrétien face.
Campbell was the first woman prime minister, she had been NATO’s first female defence minister. She was 8 days into her prime ministership when she greeted the sun on the east coast and made that beautiful journey across Canada on our nation’s birthday. You are damn right she was popular!
She had a very similar timeline to anyone now considering leadership of the liberals. How fast the honeymoon ended. I think a lot of people felt sorry for her after the election but a lot of those people were not as attached to the PC party because of the past leader.
It’s my fear that whomever replaces Trudeau, he or she will wear a defeat that he so richly deserves. Kim Campbell did not deserve her fate, nor would Christy Clark.
I’d like whomever it is that leads be able to take the helm after this loss. In today’s environment I don’t see many giving a second chance to the poorest showing leader in Liberal history if that were to happen.
To your point about smiling now – you were right about Trudeau. I’m saying his party is his party. I cannot see someone reshaping this mess in such a short time.
Doug Ford dynamic was very different and rare. I think this election shapes up to be a Trudeau referendum just like Kim’s was really a referendum on Mulroney.
And please believe I am not trying to patronize team Chrétien of which you were a much bigger player then this guy had a campaign for the ages.
“I have the people I have the plan…”
And that blessed red book
And an unpopular government that offered up a token sacrificial lamb in Kim Campbell.
So I did live it too. Enjoyed it a lot. My passion for the party turned but I was there.
History doesn’t repeat itself but it can sure as hell rhyme and there were a lot of stalwart PC that smiled when 1993 happened. Some wore reform green some wore Quebec bleu.
It’s that fate I see for liberals because it’s that fate to which those who remain have lead the party.
Look at all the candidates who stayed away when Kim Campbell ran. I will say this Canada could use a competent woman in charge. I worry that the image will be of another Kim when the first one did not deserve her fate.
Note comparing Mulroney and Trudeau legacies will be very different then their end times.
The 1993 Liberal campaign promises to repeal the GST and reneogiate FTA demonstated that campaigns matter but follow through does not.
oddly enough the GST thing was the beginning of the end of Phil the Liberal.
As Warren said, Kim Campbell had a massive leader bounce. The PCs topped out at, I believe, 52% in the summer of 1993. Bad luck to peak so early and bottom out on election day.
And the PPC is not even showing (presumably under Other).
I have a friend who is a PPC supporter, and he sometimes forwards me the fundraising emails from Maxime Bernier. To hear the PPC tell it, they are the reason the Conservative Party is doing so well in the polls. According to the PPC, if not for them, Canadian opinion would not have shifted towards the policies now being advocated by the Conservatives.
My rebuttal to this person is that opinion can only shift when people are aware of something. And to my knowledge, the PPC hasn’t been seen in the news or other public square in years. But in their own little world, they believe they are driving the agenda.
It has been a lesson in how cults can convince their followers of all sorts of things, if the followers don’t read much else.
The PPC probably cost the Tories 11 seats in 2021. Discussion closed. Oh and a lot of other Tories sat on their hands but I digress. All those folks didn’t understand the concept of a binary choice just like the Red Tories didn’t in 2015.
One moron out west blocked me because I pointed out to him that a friend of mine that has a world class American doctor wife who came back to Canada with him wasn’t a traitor on the immigration issue.
You didn’t drink the Koolaid.