— Musings —01.05.2025 09:24 PM
The future
Here’s what’s going to happen.
1. Prorogation request: granted.
2. Trudeau resigns, Libs go up a bit.
3. Leadership race. Libs go up more.
4. New leader, honeymoon. Libs go up more.
5. Election call, fast, to capitalize on it. Libs…
Win? Doubt it. Depends on 4 and 5.
I actually want him to stay on as long as possible and fight it out with his own caucus. A Parliamentary crisis will be an excellent teachable moment for Canadian voters who are extremely uninformed about how Canadian democracy works. Its really the only positive thing that can come out of this mess.
Folks have already tuned out the Liberals.
They want change.
They want a government that wants to govern.
They don’t want prorogation.
They see prorogation for what it is: a desperate move to cling to power.
All the while, assuredly, the Conservatives are going to pound the Liberals on social media.
It’s going to be grim.
It’s going to be great. Fixed it for you. I have a conference call at 10:00am. Better be done by 10:45. Will actually tune in and listen to Justin for the first time since I stopped during the plague.
It’s Freeland vs Carney (sorry Warren, Clarke won’t be a footnote)
Freeland: everything she does will be measured in terms of being Trudeau’s Jaffar during the last nine years. One tiff at the end won’t wash her of these stains.
Carney: Iggy the Second. He’ll speak with a bit more polish as bankers tend to vs academics, but “he didn’t come back to you” rings even better for him given that he bailed on the BoC to run the BoE. This only gives him the advantage that he’ll actually sound like an adult vs what we’ve seen since 2015. Oh, and he’s also been openly flirting with Trudeau’s government for two years, so it’s hard to see how he’ll be able to sell himself as a change agent.
You seem to be making points why it won’t be either of them.
They are both irreparably tarnished by this mess and I suspect grassroots Liberals will give both of them a pass.
I won’t argue with that observation. The fact is that the Liberals have no good options at this point.
As Warren has been pointing out for many years, it’s the Trudeau Party now and his shadow casts a long shadow over everything Team Red does. That reputation won’t be easily expunged either.
Nearly 3 month prorogation due to nothing but internal Liberal Party machinations is a bloody disgrace!!
Nobody should dare compare this to Harper 2009.
– that was 5 weeks, not 3 months
– we had just had an election in which the CPC won a strong minority
– the LPC/NDP/BQ never once mentioned in that election that they would join forces to overturn the govt in the event of a minority (entirely legal though it was)
– the governing CPC was at 40%, not 20%
– the fact that the coalition fell apart in just a few weeks proved Harper’s wisdom in calling a brief “timeout”; it could have easily defeated the govt after the 5-week prorogue was over, but didn’t
So we get three more months of Trudeau smirking “fuck you” at the working class that he hates. Three months of the oppressed workers and contributors to the Canadian state seething as their elected representatives in the opposition parties are blocked from doing their duty to end this government.
Warren, you think this will turn out well (or better) for the Liberals? I don’t. Worst of both worlds. MORE Trudeau (3 months is an eternity), and then a new untested leader. 1993 here we come.
I wonder if they will be smart enough to keep him from QP. I think this will work about as well as everything else has that they have tried.
As far as 4 goes. We have two previous elections we can compare it too. The 2024 US election and the 1993 Canadian election.