— Feature, Musings —02.11.2025 06:24 PM
My latest: wake up, Team Tory
If the polls are accurate, this has never really happened before.
The Conservative Party of Canada has dropped nearly 30 percentage points in six weeks.
Now, in 1984, there was a 30-point shift that ended up favouring Brian Mulroney’s Conservatives. Sure. But that happened over a longer period of time. Same with 1993, when my former boss Jean Chretien wiped out the Tories. Thirty points, give or take, but the shift occurred over a number of months, not weeks.
Thirty points in just six weeks! How did that happen?
As the Conservative Party’s nervous-nellie caucus gathers for a meeting in Ottawa this week – and as thousands of Tory MPs, staffers and their families congregate in Ottawa’s Rogers Centre on Saturday – more than a few of them have to be asking themselves that question: what happened? What went wrong? Can we get back to where we were?
All fair questions. From being 30 points ahead of the Liberal Party at the start of the year – to now, with several pollsters suggesting the Tories and Grits are nearly tied. Or that the latter are actually ahead of the former. Ouch.
How they lost their lead is simple. As this writer opined in these pages months ago, Trump’s victory in November was always going to hurt the Tories. And it has. Canadians mostly hate Trump, and they quietly suspect Poilievre dresses up in his Donald costume at night, when no one is around.
Once Trump was re-installed in power, things got worse. In the intervening days – when Trump has threatened and belittled Canada, over and over, saying he wants to make us the 51st state – Pierre Poilievre’s predicament has become dire. See polls, above.
There are three reasons for this. It is an open question whether Poilievre possesses the will, or the insight, to repair the damage.
One: he needs to stop aping Trump’s policies. For example, this week the Toronto Star topped a report with this headline: “PIERRE POILIEVRE PROMISES ‘MASSIVE’ FOREIGN AID CUTS.” In any other week, at any other time, Poilievre throwing a bone to his migrant-hating red-meat base would be grist for the mill.
But doing it now, in the selfsame week that Trump and his evil Elflord Elon Musk have shut down USAID, America’s vaunted agency for international development and foreign aid? That’s deeply stupid, Team Tory. It doesn’t exactly advance the narrative that you’re not Trumpy, now, does it?
Two: Poilievre needs a MAGA-enema. In every Conservative caucus, at any given time, you always have a Randy White or a Myron Thompson. Remember them? Smart Tories sure do. The loose lips of White and Thompson and their troglodyte ilk sank Stephen Harper’s Conservatives when it counted – during elections. So Harper flushed them at his earliest opportunity.
Poilievre needs to do likewise. Polls show up to half of partisan Conservatives really like Trump. If that’s even partially true, that means that there are probably even more closeted MAGA types in Poilievre’s circle (Google “Pierre Poilievre staff MAGA hat” to see what I mean). So, Poilievre needs to march them out to the town square and – with a gleeful CBC and the aforementioned Star in attendance – terminate the Vichy MAGA-Canucks, with extreme prejudice. Like, yesterday.
[To read more, go here]
Warren,
My party has a nominal leader and a real leader: her name is Smith. That’s why from the leader on down everyone kisses Danielle’s ass. If Pierre doesn’t break with her, he can kiss off the election right now. Canadians are watching and don’t like Trumpy Smith running the show. End of story.
Warren,
As for cleaning out Trumpers in caucus, I doubt there are that many but that’s another boat that Pierre won’t rock. His problem, not mine. Maybe just maybe he needs to call Harper and Manning.
Warren,
They need a Kinsella. They’ve got nothing close.
Thanks my friend, but I’ve got six majorities under my belt. If I go back in, I risk losing that record. It’s always best to know when to walk off the field.
A drop of 30 percentage points would mean that the Conservatives dropped from 45% vote share to 15%. Lowest I’ve seen the Tories was 34% from EKOS. Did you mean margin (the difference between the top two parties)? That has certainly dropped massively, though from around 25 points to 7-10.
I’m not really sure what the Conservatives could have done. The most reviled PM probably in Canadian history left. Mark Carney enters into a fast track coronation to the Prime Ministership next month, provides precisely zero detail on what he plans to do with that unelected power, avoids the Canadian media (funny I thought Liberals said it was bad when Poilievre did that?), and the wine grammies of TruAnon instantly transform into Banker Boosters. The left loves the big banks now! Oh how they’ve changed since the days of Occupy Wallstreet. Whether the complete lack of scrutiny on Carney can last until election day remains to be seen.
Poilievre is not going to throw the right-wing of his party under the bus because they are the next generation. All the polls show a sharp tightening but here’s what they also show : a massive divergence in voting intentions by age cohort. Canadians 60+ are 45-50% for the Liberals while 18-34s are 40-45% for the Conservatives with the NDP second. Poilievre’s political style is likely to be enduring.
I note with amusement how TruAnon, who until 5 minutes ago thought Canada was a post-national state devoid of identity, now seem eager to go to war with Trump because he seeks to operationalize that exact same lowly view of Canada. Of course, TruAnon won’t be the ones fighting. Young conservative working class men will conscripted to do the dirty work.
Pedant,
I will say something for you: you are nothing if not consistently amusing. Yours is a true world of black and white with a complete aversion to the realpolitik world of shades of grey. Perhaps it has escaped you that Canadians need not resort to military force to twart that sociopathic, demented dullard south of the border. Canadians have not bought and will never buy the absolute garbage being pedalled by that poor excuse for a president. Canada and Canadians have too much self-awareness and pride to fall for that’s idiot’s ultimate political fantasy. Unlike you, apparently, the rest of us are prepared to fight politically for our country and our institutions. All I can ask is that Pierre stay as far away from you and your self-indulgent and all-knowing musings. That way, he’ll still have a chance of winning despite the law of diminishing political returns he is currently so intent on being wedded to.
Of course there are other ways to thwart him, most of which entail economic hardship which will disproportionately and conveniently hit Liberal-unfriendly demos.
I was unimpressed by Stephen Harper’s recent comments about impoverishing Canada to prevent annexation. Of course I don’t support a US takeover. But here’s the problem with these calls for war (economic or otherwise) and impoverishment. We all know that in Canada, there will never be a shared and equitable sacrifice. The establishment’s beloved groups, foremost the Boomers and civil servants, will be protected and made whole each and every time.
So who will be required to sacrifice? Why, young workers of course. They will be even further squeezed by oppressive taxation on labour income, wage suppression from the population influx, rapidly declining opportunities, a housing bubble (deliberately inflated) with no end, malicious means-testing out of nearly all the programmes they pay for.
So forgive me if I’m hesitant to subject young workers to even more sacrifice while the elite’s privileged groups recline and sneer from the box seats.
So Boomers are evil, in your view? Nice.
And civil servants are evil too?
Seems to me Ronald’s black & white observation is true. Yeesh.
That is not what he is saying Doc. But he is not wrong. They made out like bandits relatively speaking in the last 10 years and that accelerated during the plague. He is saying he doesn’t think that should happen again. And I agree with him. Don’t you? Their lack of self awareness is astonishing. They will bitch and complain about OAS reform(for example) while there are some couples who have arranged their affairs properly that keep some of their OAS while making 360k a year in 2025(actually much higher if you have someone like me helping you). Probably all Liberals or Red Tories! I engaged with a guy yesterday that said I wanted to cut OAS to seniors when all I was saying that we should all be able to agree that keeping some of your OAS when you make 360k a year is insane. He said that very few do(he is wrong) but then I asked him what his number was and he went dark. To provide a number would mean he was on board with OAS reform.
We must spare a thought for the Muskoka and Rosedale retired civil servant boomers! Who will pay their gardeners?
That’s what you got from my comment, but *I’m* the one who sees everything in black and white?
What I’m saying is that if we go the route of national sacrifice to withstand US economic aggression, as suggested by PM Harper, it needs to be a SHARED sacrifice. That means zero carve-outs or special treatment for privileged age groups, industries, or geographical regions.
I live far below my means. I can do material sacrifice in my sleep. I doubt many others can.
Martin, I’m sorry but your post is a farrago of caricaturization and gross generalizations. You constantly use “they”, which implies that every single member of the cohorts you describe believe in or practice the things you describe. That’s simply not true. Unless you can provide us with polling data from a reliable source that shows that every single member of those cohorts holds those views.
Doc, I am literally in the business of seeing who was/is making out like bandits(particularly during the plague) and can also see who they vote for. I have been consistently talking about that dirty little secret on this site for years. Now that is only a sample size of about 5000 but, just for the record, that is more than most polls I see and my data comes from almost 50 years of paying attention to said data.
“The establishment’s beloved groups, foremost the Boomers and civil servants, will be protected and made whole each and every time.”
That is the problem with talking about taking whatever steps we will take to respond to these tariffs. Justin et al are talking about another Covid type support program to “protect Canadians”. You can’t talk about what we are going to do without talking about both parts. No one is talking about the second part and Pedant is right, those types will not only not suffer, they will benefit(again) from a wealth shift.
Pedant,
What we need above all is comprehensive tax reform but thus far no government of any stripe has had the guts to do what’s essential: no one above a predetermined income level should be entitled to receive CPP (or QPP) even if they paid into it. Their contributions should be considered as social rents that are not refundable or subject to tax credits. These people have done the best by a wide margin in this country and it’s beyond ridiculous that they should receive either of these programs.
My sense of it is that Pierre is going to focus primarily on middle-class tax cuts but again there are risks here also. Most people make absolutely no distinctions: there are the saver and invested-oriented middle-class and then there are the rest, the conspicuous consumption middle-class who quite deliberately have no savings or investments because their unique goal in life is to be irresponsible. They’re the ones living like millionaires without an income to support that. They own a house far too large for them to pay for and they drive luxury cars and never forgo trips which they also cannot afford. I have no sympathy for those types, none whatsoever. But for those in the middle class who are busting their asses doing one or several jobs just to survive, well personally, I would forego all of my tax cuts so this cohort of the middle class could obtain substantial tax relief. That said, how would a government square that circle? It’s easier said than done but that is no reason to cop out.
Now as to boomer and public service entitlements, the government needs an express mandate from voters to cut public sector pensions. That has to happen across the board and the political class also need to see their pensions shaved even further. Harper made a good start with regard to the latter but more must be done.
Finally, I support Pierre’s view that tariff income needs to be returned to the taxpayer but again, these payments need to be targeted. Those at the top should not be entitled to this type of tax relief. As Martin said so eloquently, the rich and privileged already have their lawyers and accountants who can legally game the system. They don’t need any more help.
Re: middle class tax cuts.
Clearly the answer is to cut tax on labour income (NOT investment income) and raise the GST back to 7%. This explicitly rewards frugal savers. If there are concerns that 7% is too high, the list of reasonable exemptions can be extended. Things like school supplies and textbooks etc can be made exempt. Additionally, the increase to capital gains tax on profits above $250k should go through, to help pay for the income tax cut.
Interestingly, Freeland has the right idea. She’s proposing a cut to the second tranche of income that begins at $57K. This is the correct approach. Low income (often no income) people already get massive supports. They don’t need even more breaks.
On housing, there needs to be an understanding among the political class that markets go up and can also go down. If the market declines, it should be allowed to decline. It is not the government’s role to swoop in and rescue property speculators and seniors who used their home as an ATM, counting on perpetual 8-10% annual price growth.
The left were also anti big pharma, anti war, anti government, pro free speech, pro don’t tell me what to do with my body, etc etc.
The Red Tories are downright giddy about the polls. They are hilarious to watch. They are also contrarian indicators and the morons who fell for Justin. If Pierre has to win them over to win, we are truly fucked. If their excitement is deserved and they get what they want, we are in for more of the same for 10 years. There is one guy that is having basically daily orgasms on X. On and the Tru-anons are also the ones that said the polls were meaningless.
“The Red Tories are downright giddy about the polls.”
Where the hell do you get that from? Evidence please. Otherwise I’ll assume you just pulled that from some nether region.
If simplistic labelling were to prevail, I suppose people might label me a Red Tory. But it’s a simplistic, reductionist label. But in any event I am not giddy about polls showing a drop in Tory support. So you’re wrong.
Sorry, I should have said “some red tories”. I hesitate to bump this guy but look at Miles Lunn on X. That is the guy that is having a daily orgasm over the fact that he thinks he finally has a guy that will slay the last remnants of the reformers that he thinks took over his party when he was a silly clueless 20 year old kid.
Although, many of you did fall for Justin the first time. Am I right? Chretien voter here so there is no question I am a red Tory but I have a hard time taking anyone seriously that failed the binary choice in 2015. Coyne in particular. It is part of the reason we are in this mess.
When a lot of them came out against Pierre, I literally considered that a good thing and that we were on to something.
What to you mean “you”? I never voted for Justin and I’ve never voted Liberal in a federal election in my life. You voted for Chretien, not me.
Martin,
Miles used to post here. I believe it was before your time, Martin. LOL. One day he just bailed.
Doc-I said many of you. My guess is you know a lot of them if you hang with Red Tories. True?
Warren,
Jesus. Léger has the CPC only up by three if Carney becomes Liberal leader. Will Carney go to an early election? Probably.
I am keeping my powder dry on a Carney win.
Ronald,
It feels like the Conservatives are intentionally lying low, waiting in the weeds, biding their time until the end of the month before mounting a savage blitz.
The thing is, the blitz better be good and effective.
It needs to generate shock + awe, and create massive doubt about Carney.
Otherwise, four more years of Trudeau-like rule
Douglas,
Carney is said to be worth at least ten million. Not surprising for someone who stands out as an elitist’s elitist. I mean, the script almost writes itself, it’s easy as pie as the Yanks would say. He needs to be pounded into political oblivion and that needs to happen yesterday. The same people who did Just Visiting should be leading the charge now.
Are they bragging or complaining about him? If he is only worth 10 million, then that is reason number one million not to vote for him. Any idiot in his position should be worth a multiple of 10 million after what we have gone through under Justin.
Martin,
Take this with a grain of salt but that is supposedly his Brookfield compensation. Allegedly. So Yes, he should be worth more than that.
“Just visitng” isn’t going to work against a guy who was appointed by Harper to lead the Band of Canada. Tories who think they can repeat the Ignatieff routine with Carney are kidding themselves.
Sean,
With respect, it’s totally irrelevant who appointed him. Michael was viewed as part of the elite. This guy is an elitist to the hundred power. If Ignatieff was just visiting Canada, then Carney is just visiting as part of the WEF establishment. That makes him an elitist’s elitist. The CPC campaign theoretically should work like a charm. Take Carney down NOW!
The Tru-anons are hilarious when it comes to Harper.
Tru-anons-Pierre is that fascist Harper’s puppet
Also Tru-anons-why can’t Pierre talk like Harper-he is a true Canadian.
Tru-anons hauling out Harper as an example of how to behave are so cute. Shades of the Dems hauling out folks like John Bolton who they basically wanted to try as a war criminal 10 minutes ago.
And Ronald, Carney has to win first.
I also note the NDP vote is softening. They risk major decimation in the next election – an apt reward for their liberal support.
Pierre needs to shift from being “Mr. Angry” to being and projecting a positive message about Canada. The next election will not be about “the awful liberals” but about our wonderful nation that is too precious to be sullied by the Trump regime. The polls suggest the next election will be a two party race, with the NDP irrelevant.
There is also a strong core of Canadians who will not vote liberal under any circumstances. This core is not enough to elect the conservatives. As you note, the conservatives need to quickly shift or they will again be the angry table bangers in opposition, yet again.
Wouldn’t be the first time the NDP gets creamed after they prop up the Liberals. See 1972-74 for starters. It almost always ends in tears for them.
Two things happened – well three things happened – ditched Trudeau, Ditched the carbon tax, election of Trump
The conservative base loves Trump. Pierre loves Trump, everybody else in Canada can’t stand him – Pierre, like Danielle Smith, is a Trump sycophant. This is now showing in the polls, although since a big swath of that Trump loving base is in Alberta, Smith could win another election, but Pierre is gonna lose because of this.
No we don’t. WTF are you talking about. One thing Pierre is right about is that the country is actually broken and this Carney coronation(if it happens) has distracted folks from that. This is why the dems lost in 2024 and why the Liberals should lose up here. I am literally one of the people on the ground the article refers to that can see this. People like you, on the other hand, are buying the propaganda that everything is going swimmingly. This was sent to me by a LEFTIE who is also a scientist so will not accept the shite that is shoveled at him like you do. We are actually WORSE off than the people referred to in the article because our GDP per capita is worse than the worst performing states.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/02/11/democrats-tricked-strong-economy-00203464?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR2l10fL-thYeKK6lvFDRqkacpgRelNrzbRne8TtQYETRZcb_htTcAD2uRQ_aem_QFGwMtGiYtRR2TgtCaeW7A
I think that’s extremely simplistic to say that the conservative base loves Trump. I think Warren’s observation is more accurate. Hard-right people like Trump. The conservative universe of voters is hardly just made up of hard-right Trump lovers. If it were that, the Tories would be showing far lower numbers than we see and we have seen.
I just think it’s lazy intellectually to assume that the most extreme supporters of any party constitute “the base”. It’s far more nuanced than that. I’ve voted PC/Conservative in every election going back decades. Am I not part of “the base”?
Curious,
Pierre doesn’t love Trump. How many trips has he made to Mar-a-Lago, Trump Tower or the WH? The question answers itself. Remember what Mom always said: actions speak louder than words and Pierre being AWOL speaks volumes.
Bit early to panic IMHO. The next election could be months away. If the things go really south with Trump and tariffs, it might be better not to be in government. Whomever is there will have to make some very difficult decisions, ones that might spark a constitutional crisis. Oh, and CV, Smith has looked very smart and prescient recently, miles ahead of your boy JT. Just sayin’….
If trump goes full ape shit and the country starts to tank, it will be the person at the Prime Minister wheel that will either become the hero or the villain
Here’s some free advice for the Conservatives. Mark Carney is an out of touch globalist and elitist. He knows nothing about the struggles of ordinary Canadians. Like Michael Ignatieff, he’s lived a long time outside Canada and might leave again if defeated.
Mark Carney is trying to distance himself from Justin Trudeau, but he’s been his economic advisor for years. He loves taxes and excessive environmental regulations. He claims he loves Canada, but he has three passports- Canadian, British and Irish. Which is his favourite?
He’s studying French every day. Is it just so he can become Prime Minister? Whose interests is Mark Carney looking after, those of Canadians or just his own?
Gilbert,
So many people are looking for a fig leaf of an excuse, real or imagined, to vote Liberal. I hope we’re smart enough not to give them one now or in the campaign.
I was actually embarrassed for Ford yesterday when he walked out of the WH. They met with the guy that hires and fires the white house interns. Yikes.
Martin,
I guess Susie was too busy having her face put back in the right place. But seriously, this clearly demonstrates how anything Canadian is last priority except, of course, for finding a way to steal our country. Dipshit Trump Republicans.
I thought there would be more pushback from free market republicans. Is it that they’re scared because Trump has taken control of the base?
Well put, Warren.
I think another issue PP faces is that he’s just not that likeable and never has been. The electorate was/is completely fed up with Trudeau so when forced to choose between him and Pierre, the latter is major beneficiary, but now we have Carney and he comes off as likeable, funny and relatable compared to Pollievre’s unending outrage and inability to utter a sentence without inserting corny, Trump-like names for his opponents.
So perhaps it’s culminating in a perfect storm for the Cons, the Trump effect, but also the Liberals being about to appoint an antidote to the things many really dislike about PP, who also offers economic credibility. Lastly, I think Canadians are ready to move on from this lot of relatively young bros we have on offer. I for one welcome the idea of a later career choice (but not so late that they’re Biden or Trump’s age).
Likeable, relatable and funny? That’s funny. The boomers and the civil service have their white knight to keep the grift going at the expense of everyone else. It is not complicated. Look at his rallies. So, they are going to blindly hand the reins to a central banker with three citizenships(remember when that used to be a thing with Scheer-that was so cute) who has not lived here in 11 years(paging Iggy)who literally moved BAM’s head office to the US at the expense of Canadian jobs and invested in pipelines while condescendingly lecturing to us peasants about sacrificing for climate change. The ads write themselves.
Oh and he still needs to win the leadership.
Martin,
Pierre thinks he will. He will.
Yes, Tim, because as we all know, the “young bros” are the ones with the power and wealth in Canada.
Yes folks, after 60 years of living so modestly and unassumingly in the shadows, nobody looking out for them or giving them any attention, it’s *finally* the Boomers’ time to shine!
Someone has to pay for their gardeners.
Saw an interview with Legault / he says dairy is off the table in terms of trade negotiations – so I agree that supply management is a good system that provides a lot of economic stimulus for rural Canada – Americans should adopt the same system instead of attacking Canadian farmers
So as a trade off I’d tell Legault I’ll protect dairy in negotiations, but you have to clear the way for a pipeline going through your province to the east coast
The liberals really have to cement all the ideological, and all other ties between trump and pp – I’ve seen the ads attacking Carney, and it’s nothing new, but they’ll make a dent in this momentum so the liberals better not get too comfortable. Time to hit back with paid advertising.
Here’s what we have to do, no matter what kind of trade deal we sign with the states – we have to build pipelines to the water, and we have to drop interprovincial trade barriers, and we have to trade with countries that respect the process and outcome, and who negotiate in good faith. Britain, the European union and many more – they’re all getting threatened with tariffs, so I’m certain Carney will do a great job reaching out to the world to sell our goods, and they’ll welcome it – especially in this climate.
So you want them to lie. On brand. But, you are right, many voters will be stupid enough to fall for it. I mean, look at the nonsense they fell for in 2019 and 2021. Liberals get a pass in 2015. Red Tories don’t.
Martin,
You may not give me a pass but I sure give myself a pass. My vote was 90% anti-2015-Harper version and 10% pro-Trudeau. Was I the only one? I doubt it.
Poilievre is a phony. It’s too late for him. One day he loves the American way and the next he’s captain Canada. One day he’s for scrapping minimum wages and the next he’s for workers. One day he wants to save you money but doesn’t want to hurt big Pharma’s or private insurance industry profits. One day he’s for families and the next he want you to pay $10k a year more for unaffordable childcare. One day he’s for the next generation but wants to spew more carbon and methane into the atmosphere. The more people see him, the more they dislike him. He’s everything people hate about career politicians.
Kelster,
Here’s a news flash for you: ALL politicians are phoneys. It’s part of the job description.