— Feature, Musings —02.08.2025 02:53 PM
My latest: why Poilievre is in trouble
Now we know why the Tories wanted an election right away.
At the start of 2025, when Justin Trudeau was still in charge, pollster Angus Reid reported that the Pierre Poilievre Conservatives were at 45 per cent support nationally. The Trudeau Liberals were down to an extraordinary 16 per cent.
Back then, other pollsters showed nearly the same thing. Nanos put the Tory lead at 23 per cent. Research Co. said it was 26 per cent. And then, in the first week of January, Trudeau announced that he was quitting at the start of March. The polls didn’t meaningfully change. Not right away, anyway.
For those of us who used to work for Jean Chretien, it all seemed familiar. Kim Campbell won her party’s leadership in June 1993, succeeding the very unpopular Brian Mulroney. For months, we Liberals had been ahead, sometimes – like Poilievre – by as much as 30 percentage points.
As soon as the Tories selected Campbell, however, the bottom start to fall out. Under Campbell, the Progressive Conservatives (as they were then known) surged ahead. By the time the Canada Day weekend rolled around, Campbell had become one of the most popular Prime Ministers in history.
So what happened? A few things – because, in politics, you never win or lose because of just one thing. Chretien ran a superior campaign in the Fall of 1993. Campbell was inexperienced and undisciplined. The Tory campaign ran an ad mocking Chretien’s facial paralysis.
Mostly, however, Campbell and her party lost because they’d been in power for almost a decade. People wanted change.
It’s dangerous, then, to suggest – as some Liberals are now quietly doing – that they could now somehow snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Under Mark Carney, they whisper amongst themselves, perhaps a fourth consecutive Liberal win is possible.
Their reason for making such bold claims is, again, the polls.
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Warren,
This thing is so simple: we’re hemorrhaging support while the Liberals have no leader. We’ll do that even more once Carney wins. But one person can stop and reverse that: his name is Poilièvre. He has to pull out the best of his abilities to battle a growing sentiment of Liberal forgiveness. Going forward, the only person Canadians and Conservatives should see is Pierre the statesman with gravitas and demonstrable ability. If the leader goes only with that, Carney in the fullness of time will be the next saviour à la Ignatieff. (Sorry, Michael.)
IMHO, the PC’s deserved to lose the1993 election. However, what really hurt them was that in 1993, the Reform Party won 52 seats, and split the vote in many other ridings. The PC’s received over 2 million votes, but because of of our “first past the post” electoral system, they only won 2 seats. Conversely, the Bloc, with less than 2 million votes, won 54 seats and were the official opposition. Another example of why proportional representation would be a fairer and more democratic way to elect a government.
I’ve been consistent in saying that the coronation parade for Mr Poilievre has been far too premature. I am one of those guys who thinks that campaigns matter. So I think that anything could happen when we finally have a federal election. I have no idea how Mr Carney will fare head to head with Mr Poilievre (barring some unforeseen circumstance, I don’t see Ms Freeland winning). I don’t think Trump will care who wins, although he might be of the mind that Mr Carney will be more malleable (being a banker and all), and that Mr Carney would be more willing to sign a bad deal, rather than no deal. After all, Mr Carney hasn’t got any ties to Canada, and can easily return to the world of international finance. On the other hand, Mr Poilievre has dedicated most of his adult life (so far) to public service, and can’t just get a job with the WEF like Mr Carney could. So Mr Poilievre is more likely, IMHO, to fight harder for Canada. Finally, while I may be accused of being a conspiracy theorist, the way this whole farrago is playing out, it seems to me this has been part of PM Trudeau’s (and his braintrust’s) plan all along. Drag things out until Trump becomes President, hope for a crisis, and then ride that wearing a Team Canada sweater and hope for re-election. Cynicism at its worst.
The fact that Trudeau wanted T to win is not a conspiracy theory. It is just a fact. At least as far as the debates go, Pierre will dismantle Carney. A ton of material there. And, let’s see if the Carney coronation gets completed. I am not 100% convinced.
Ha ha Pierre and the Conservatives will lose. Well the liberals may get their minority and good for them. I hope the shit show that is probably coming their way with Big orange, 25% tariffs or any other bullshit that pops into his mind. If Carneys past performance and intensions ring true Pierre may want to sit this one on the sidelines and let the simpletons ride the Canadian orange wave. IMHO
Dink,
When the Liberals are in power it’s never good for us. Imagine if Carney somehow got a miracle and struck a deal with POS. It would mean a Liberal landslide. Nope. Those of us who support the CPC should be careful what we wish for.
Low wattage voters will be easily swayed by the wonderful news coverage for the upcoming Liberal Coronation. CBC devoted 36 uninterrupted minutes of coverage for a speech that Carney made the other day. (Just one of many insurance policy premium payments that CBC will send to the Liberals. It’s either that or watch as the CBC HQ is turned into affordable housing.”
It’s all just so darn clever. Promise to quit and then disappear from the public for three weeks and then go running to the Gee-Gee to suspend Parliament, knowing the looming White House menace was worthy of Parliamentary debate.
Summary: Trudeau is true to form, rigging the game in his favour and giving the Conservative Party the middle finger. He’s CAPTAIN CANADA!
Poilievre is still getting his carbon tax election, being able to deride the Liberals for abandoning their love for hosing Canadians in an elaborate income redistribution scheme on the eve of an election. However, the harder work of convincing people that this horrible Liberal government is whitewashing their ineptitude by hiding behind and running against the Orange menace. I think Carney is another four years of Justin Trudeau, with poorer communication skills.
WV,
As out of his depth as Carney is, he still has a long way to go to be as clueless as this Prime Minister.