
Musings —03.04.2025 11:46 AM
—My latest: the Mango Mussolini’s real plan
Sounds like a lot.
Retaliatory tariffs totalling $155 billion – $30 billion right away and, if they have no effect, an additional $125 billion in three weeks’ time. Sprinkle in some additional pain – barring Teslas from being sold here, buy Canadian campaigns, slowly cutting off electrical power to some American states – and it will be substantial enough to persuade Donald Trump to pull back from the brink, right?
Probably not.
Even before Trump’s 25 per cent tariffs were imposed on all Canadian imports at midnight Monday, the markets were reacting. The S&P 500, which tracks the performance of the 500 biggest publicly-traded companies in the United States, was down 1.76 per cent at the end of day. The Dow Jones, which tracks 30 prominent companies active on stock exchanges, was down 1.4 per cent. The Nasdaq, which follows a lot of technology-related companies, was down 2.6 per cent.
A few percentage points: are they really that much? Well, on Monday, before the tariffs even came into effect, whatever gains the market achieved in 2025 were completely wiped out. There was a massive selloff – $1.3 trillion in just a matter of hours.
There are a thousand billion in a trillion, of course. That means that Monday’s stock market selloff did ten times more damage to Donald Trump’s economy than Canada plans to.
As Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre, Mark Carney, Doug Ford and every other Canadian leader has said, over and over, whenever an American news outlet points a microphone their way: the American people are going to experience pain, too. And it is going to be significant.
We can only assume that Trump still has a few plucky advisors who are unafraid to tell him that truth: that in trade war, everyone loses. But Trump (obviously) has been unmoved.
Why? There are lots of theories making the rounds: he’s using economic violence to get what he wants – in our case, making us the 51st state. Or, he’s simply a modern-day Nero, fiddling while his economy burns.
There is another possibility, one that Trump himself referred to in January, and which few took seriously at the time. Here is what the U.S. president posted:
“For far too long, we have relied on taxing our Great People using the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Through soft and pathetically weak Trade agreements, the American Economy has delivered growth and prosperity to the world, while taxing ourselves. It is time for that to change. I am today announcing that I will create the EXTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE to collect our Tariffs, Duties, and all Revenue that come from Foreign sources. We will begin charging those that make money off of us with Trade, and they will start paying, FINALLY, their fair share.”
Forget about the use of all-caps, which is a style favoured by the tinfoil hat brigade. Forget all the “pathetically weak trade agreement,” which he himself signed. Forget about the fact that Trump already has an agency collecting tariffs and duties – the Customs and Border Protection Agency. So what is his objective?
To eliminate income taxes.
The U.S. raises about $3 trillion annually with income taxes. That’s the around the same value of goods it imports annually. Trump wants Canada, Mexico, China – and, soon enough, Europe and the rest of the world – to pay for the cost of his radically-slimmed-down government. Trump’s rebarbative Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick admits as much: he says that Trump’s “goal is very simple: to abolish the Internal Revenue Service and let all the outsiders pay.”
One problem with that plan, which the likes of Trump and Lutnick would be expected to understand, but apparently don’t: in a capitalist economy, when prices go up, demand goes down. And, already this morning – on the first day of the Trump tariff madness – stock markets have plummeted even further, around the world. Tariffs won’t replace income taxes if people are buying dramatically less goods.
There is a historical precedent for what Trump is doing: it’s the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (which, weirdly, is a funny moment in John Hughes’ movie, Ferris Bueller’s Day Off (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuOHbyuanbY&ved=2ahUKEwiZo7SD0PCLAxVNw_ACHbNiNA4QwqsBegQIDhAH&usg=AOvVaw1jiJslZfHoap8fvEctnaZY)). Smoot-Hawley jacked import duties in the U.S. by as much as 60 per cent – which Trump has threatened, as well.
The result? A global trade decline, widespread hunger and
poverty – and the United States was plunged into a longer and more severe Great Depression.
Those who don’t learn from history, as they say, are damned to repeat it.
We’re about to repeat it.
Warren,
The Great Depression ain’t nothing compared to what this Jackass will deliberately inflict on the American people. And then his personal reckoning will come and it won’t be pretty. Boom, lights out.
Hopefully he gets so much push back when inflation rises that he starts looking for a deal, a way out – a way to declare victory while at the same time succumbing to reality – although those tariffs are pretty fucking real I guess, just that they’re going to drive up prices
You are absolutely right that Smoot-Hawley was the last time tariff rates were jacked this high. And of course Trump supporters are too historically and economically illiterate to realize the significance of that.
I think the political TSN Turning point on all of this — if it happens — will be when swing district Republicans in Congress reach the point where they’re more afraid of being primaried or losing their seat in 2026 because of mindless, unqualified support of Trump than they’re afraid of being primaried for standing up to him.
Warren,
One rank amateur is about to replace another…
Carney, if he’s prime minister, thinks it will be MY government. Nope, nada, nyet, no-no. You may lead our government. Only the King can say it’s MY government. L’apprentissage sera long et douloureux, encore une fois. Le parti libéral.
Plan? There’s no plan man. Never get off the f*cking boat. He’s no Greg Stillson. Now that was a real politician!
I’m settling on door #2… “a modern-day Nero, fiddling while his economy burns.”
I think Warren is giving too much credit. There is no plan, no goals, no objectives IMO.
One of the most telling news items today is the fact that US GOP leadership has instructed Republican members of Congress not to have in-person town halls. They are literally already afraid of facing their own constituents in person. Less than 2 months into Trump’s term, that is not a good sign or a good look for the GOP.
And they just handed the Democrats a nice attack ad.
I’m persuaded by the people who point out that tariffs have been a Trump obsession for many years, and notably before he became an actual politician. That’s why arguably this may end up being a Trump own goal. Because polling shows that they are not a political winner, unlike the border. Especially now when enhanced media coverage and explication means they’re no longer just some abstraction.
Doc,
Trump’s mega-million obsession is the stock market. If it serially tanks, his tariffs will inevitably go the way of the Dodo bird.