— Feature, Musings —04.23.2025 01:26 PM
Campaign notebook: they’re going to lose. Then what?
What if the Conservatives lose?
Every poll, just about, now suggests they will. The seat projections are worse. Even the polls that describe a very tight race – like Mainstreet – project a Mark Carney Liberal majority.
Polls are a snapshot in time, the saying goes, and they are. So, politicos pay attention instead to the trendline: that is, what a number of polls – over a longish period of time and asking substantially the same groups of people substantially similar questions – have to say. That’s the trendline.
The trendline, for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, has been very grim indeed. Since the departure of Justin Trudeau, and the return of Donald Trump, the Poilievre Tories have presided over one of the most astonishing polling freefalls in living memory.
In January, not so long ago, the Conservatives were enjoying extraordinary popularity. Their lead over the Liberals seemed insurmountable: 26 points with Ipsos, 24 with Angus Reid. Abacus and Innovative, 21 points. Leger – the outfit that was the most accurate in recent federal elections – pegged their lead at 18 points.
It was the stuff of political fairytales. It meant that Poilievre was on track to win one of the biggest – if not the biggest – Parliamentary majorities in Canadian history.
And then, everything changed.
As in all things political, it’s never one thing that kills you. It’s a multiplicity of things: Trump hello, Trudeau goodbye, 51st state, tariffs. Add to that the ascension of Mark Carney to the Liberal throne – and the Conservatives’ stubborn refusal to adjust their strategy accordingly – and you have a formula for disaster.
From the heady days of a near-30-point lead to now: the Liberals ahead three points with Ipsos, and five points with Reid. Abacus, three points. Leger showing four points – and Reid showing the Grits with crushing leads in the seat-abundant cities of Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal.
How did this happen? Poilievre and his chief strategist, Jenni Byrne, have a run a tight, disciplined campaign. They had candidate bimbo eruptions, yes, but so did everyone else. Truly, Poilievre and Byrne didn’t make many big mistakes. At all.
It is easy to understand, then, the crushing disappointment the Tories now feel: they have effectively lost 30 percentage points in a matter of weeks. That has never really happened before, as noted.
So, what happens now?
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Well, Carney gets complete control of everything. The NDP supporters who abandoned their party cheer, the old folks cheer and the ones who vote on pure emotion cheer. 6 months later Carney sells us out to Trump so he can get on with his net zero policy, the old folks get nailed with a capital gains tax on their houses and so on and so on. The under 55’s loose wages, jobs, car industry collapses, Premier Ford quietly contemplates his supporting the Liberals as his Province tanks, everyone laughs at Premier Smith when she talks separation till it happens and Donald Trump absorbs Alberta. Or I’m wrong. Meth is one hell of a drug.
I think you caught the moment quite well.
Carney is about to get a blank cheque, good through the rest of the decade, to do everything that they couldn’t finish off during Trudeau’s third term.
Warren and others may scoff at this, but when 40% of the population is sticking with the Tories & PPC, and they’re concentrated geographically (AB & SK), as well as demographically (youth, which has also never happened), you have a recipe for separatism and balkinization.
Alberta has enough small-c conservatives and those seeking Green Cards to send them State-side.
Youth will see Boombers support a government which habitually breaks the social contract at the former’s expense and will start wondering why they still participate in a system stacked against them.
Buckle up, this about to get really interesting.
Albertans won’t separate – we love Canada. As an Albertan, I’m embarrassed that we elected Danielle Smith – she’s doing a horrible job for Albertans – hopefully we will elect Nenshi next time.
Curious,
AB is just like QC: only attached to Canada if its conditions are met. You could have fooled me when you said Albertans luv Canada, you know, that once and perhaps future Liberal Canada. Tell me another one.
Agreed. Curious, you seem to have some wishful thinking both in terms of Alberta and its political leanings.
It would be like saying that Ontario loves the Tories when, in fact, they tend to have a deep suspicion of them that takes a lot to overcome.
Albertans are patriotic people – yes they love Canada and I would remind the poster that they also elect NDP governments – hopefully Danielle smith will lose to Naheed Nenshi in the next election. They’ll never separate , but there will always be that extreme wing of the Conservative Party that wants to – they’ll never get the numbers to pull it off.
“The party broke into factionalism in the Jean Chretien decade — some going to the Bloc Quebecois, some staying with the Progressive Conservatives, and many (like Poilievre himself) becoming Reformers. It will be very hard for him to argue against others doing what he did, won’t it?”
He was 9 years old when Deb Grey was elected the first Reform MP. Of all the things Poilievre is accused of, I think breaking apart Mulroney’s party from his elementary school is a bit of a stretch.
This election is the Boomers’ last stand as they grasp for the politician most likely to use state power to keep home prices high. They win this battle but will lose the war. Political views, contrary to popular belief and backed up empirical study, don’t change all that much over time. One’s basic principles and ideological underpinnings at 70 aren’t much different from what they are at 20. The Conservative base is young and energetic, and for their entire voting lives they will remember what the Liberals did to them.
I’m just curious, is there polling data to show that young people decisively support the Conservatives and not the Liberals etc.?
There is polling data that shows that the boomers are overwhelmingly supporting the Liberals. And Pierre could get a higher percentage than Harper ever did and even Mulroney in 88. So, it is just math where his support is. We sure know where is is NOT. It sure isn’t with those ridiculous Toronto baby boomers
Are you able to share that polling data with us?
You don’t glance at polling cross tabs? Granted they vary, but latest Nanos poll for instance shows the CPC winning 18-34 year olds by 19 points (49-30).
Yes but that tells us nothing about why Boomers who are voting for Carney are voting for him. You claim that it’s because they think Carney is going to keep housing prices high. I’m not aware of any poll or polling cross tab that shows that.
Dink, with respect, keeping housing prices up is not why boomers are voting against Poilievre – that’s another conspiracy that is, frankly, delusional.
Poilievre will lose because Canada, aside from
Harper’s fluke, a reformer will never win a federal election. It’s because Canadians don’t trust them to be Canadian, and they fear the kind of nastiness and incompetence they see in Trump – the reform party is as close to fascism as a major party has come – get into a conversation with a reformer and , in my experience, they pepper you with disinformation they’re nasty and they lean towards fascism –
Not for Canada
It’s hilarious when Lieberals accuse anyone of fascism. Did Harper put progressives up against the wall when he was in power?
You know, what actual fascists do…….
My dad survived nazi occupied Holland and when he was working in Alberta, of course he met all kinds of great people, but he also ran into folks who reminded him of the nazis and it was pretty common – there is a problem on the right with propaganda and yes – that leads to fascism
Look to the south and they’re arresting judges – defying the courts – you want that in Canada – no thanks – of course like Coyne points out in Canada they can use the notwithstanding clause and delegitimize the charter Trudeau sr gave us to protect us from them.
What are you talking about? It looks like almost as large a percentage of the voters will support Pierre as Carney but because of the distribution of the vote that overwhelmingly favours the votes of those boomers trying to keep the grift going in the major centres(and not just because of housing prices but ALL asset classes-no conspiracy there but keep telling yourself that), Carney will get a majority. You are casually dismissing 40 per cent of the population.
Curious,
Keep telling yourself that.
Why is anyone entertainig Curious V with a response. He is oviously not well and totally out to lunch with his “liberal” use of duragatory language. Not sure they even know the meaning or in the least devalue the meaning.
That’s the dumbest thing I’ve heard today –
What concerns me a lot is the anger and bitterness I’m seeing among really hard core Conservative supporters. I mean, I get it, I’m voting Conservative myself. But FFS, the rhetoric from hardcore partisan Conservatives that I see out there is akin to an entitlement mentality — like somehow they were entitled to win this election (per the former massive lead in the polls) and it’s somehow been stolen from them by insidious forces. I just think that’s a really bad attitude to cop. That’s a bitter loser mentality and it’s not a good look.
This is a free and fair election. We have one of the cleanest and most reliable and trusted election systems in the world. If you lose, you lose fair and square. Period.
Oh please. Complaining about election results has a long tradition on both the left and the right.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/aug/21/stolen-rigged-and-illegitimate-democrats-long-hist/
What I have not heard in prior Canadian federal elections is people bitterly complaining about and demonizing an entire demographic group (let’s call them “Boomers”) and claiming that this entire demographic group has somehow insidiously and selfishly conspired to steal the election.
If there’s one thing I’ve learned from being a political junkie it’s that voting behaviour is way, way more complex and varied than most people think and claim. People cast their votes for a myriad of reasons: sane, insane, weird, narrow, broad etc. To claim that an entire demographic, consisting of millions and millions of people, have cast their votes for a single party for a single reason — that does not comport with reality.
Except the polls literally back up the boomer claim. Literally.
So there is actual polling data in which boomers who are voting Liberal state that their reason for doing so is to keep housing prices high?
You(and Derek) seem to miss the point that I am using Toronto housing prices as an example of the wealth shift OF ALL ASSETS that has happened and will continue. It is self-evident why they are voting as they are. But, please, keep telling yourself otherwise. And my pocket book would like to thank both your circles and Curious and his family for their service!
And since you like data so much, you must have the information right at your fingertips as to how many people are saying this:
“People…claiming that this entire demographic group has somehow insidiously and selfishly conspired to steal the election.”
I’ll wait.
The problem is that voter identification is not mandatory in Canada (you just need to have someone vouch for you, as per Elections Canada). The Liberals brought in many millions of non-citizens. Is it worth wondering how many of those non-citizens will attempt to vote? And how many will succeed? Might be insignificant but we don’t really know.
Seriously? You’re pushing the narrative that illegals voting will somehow make the election result invalid?
Seriously?
Did I state that?
We already know that China rigging a dozen ridings for the Liberals is baked in, as per Erin O’toole. Some of the many millions of voting illegally could tip a few others. Doesn’t make the overall section invalid but it’s interesting how it’s one party that overwhelmingly benefits from these gaps in the system.
Do you trust the Liberals to take the issue seriously when they benefit from it?
Why not make voter ID mandatory, period? No ‘vouching’ should be permitted.
Maybe I’m the only one old enough here to remember school buses showing up in Judy Sgro’s old riding. Or a Chinese national caught voting in Michigan last year.
Aside from antidotal stories, you’re asking the wrong question Doctor.
The question should be: “Is it possible for someone to cheat?”
If the answer is yes, we owe it to every Canadian citizen to secure the system against fraudulent voting.
I’m sure you’d feel differently if the MAGA crowd south of the border figured out that there’s 150 million of them who are easily capable to take over Canada by ballot…
I’m a Conservative voter. But your comments remind me of the kind of partisan nonsense I’m used to seeing on the Brietbart comments section, i.e., only liberals and lefties cheat, right-wing parties never cheat. This is patent bullshit. There is no reliable evidence to support that claim. Of course people will trot out anecdotes, which are the least reliable form of evidence, next to analyzing chicken entrails.
I have no problem with vigorous monitoring of election proceedings and adherence to the rules. Which should be a statement of the obvious. Also, if it became the law tomorrow that you had to have photo id to vote, I would have no problem with that.
Without weighing in on the recent cries of election fraud by both the right and the left in recent years, the left DID steal at least one election that likely changed the trajectory of the entire second half of the 20th century so, there’s that. If they could, there are almost 60,000 names on a memorial wall that would probably disagree with your characterization of that fact as analyzing chicken entrails. And I am not even talking about the 1960 presidential but I digress.
You’ve got me wrong Doctor. I have no hyper-partisanship in this race as I continue to remind my Tory friends who are squinting at the polling lines and seeing Pierre P. pulling out a win somehow.
I could also bring up the situation in Guelph which sent a brash young man to prison 15 years ago who was a Tory partisan.
With that said, why do you presume that the Chinese national who voted illegally was a leftist? 🙂
https://www.mlive.com/politics/2025/04/michigan-voter-citizenship-amendment-cleared-to-collect-signatures-for-2026-ballot.html
I love the fact that you both come back with . . . anecdotes.
Pedant,
The EC commercials say to bring voter ID.
More conspiracy theory without any evidence – you guys or gals on the right just talk shit like a drunk at the bar – as per usual just making stuff up.
“The question should be: “Is it possible for someone to cheat?””
The answer to the question is yes. I am helping someone to vote that will be arriving home(after being out of the country all winter) today. After figuring out what this person had to do, it struck me how easy it would be to vote in two ridings if you have two residences. Which lots of baby boomers do, but I digress. To accuse them of cheating as a group just because they can would be just as unfair as many of Curious’s generalizations about the right.
That’s why I say Csis should be watching the people who instigate this shit – that part of the Conservative Party is fascist.
The state cannot persecute its own citizens for holding opposing views.
Go to China or North Korea if that’s the society you want.
It’s not their opposing views 1 it’s about disseminating propaganda that’s designed to destabilize our democracy
Go ahead and try to arrest people for holding opposing views. I dare your side to try that. You want to persecute young men? That doesn’t typically end well for the persecutors anywhere.
The left has become so cute when it comes to free speech!
It’s not their opposing views 1 it’s about disseminating propaganda that’s designed to destabilize our democracy – and conspiracy theory about existential public health threats – they’re not fit for leadership and they’ll lose because of it
They aren’t sharing opposing views, they’re using a propaganda campaign to delegitimize the election results – just like they spread conspiracy theory about Covid – there are people behind this stuff and they are a threat to a functioning democracy
Curious, your post is a non sequitur relative to mine. Yeesh
“It’s not Americas fault, it’s our fault, we’re stupid” If you cannot admit to the truth, you will not be able to move forward. If this upsets people then unfortunately we will suffer due to their ignorance. I like the the movie “Don’t look Up”, nice follow up from Idiocracy. IMHO
The fentanyl thing is absolute bullshit and not a reason to tariff Canada. We could do a marginally better job of patrolling the border for whoever tries to leave Canada for the US illegally, but again, is it not the US’s job to police it’s own borders? Please specify which part of this is “the truth”.
Bone up on he context of what he said and get back to us. He was not talking about immigration or fentanyl.
9 years of doing nothing in this country and we blame Trump who’s been in place 3 months cause we can’t get our shit together and he’s predatory enough to see the opportunity and exploit it. IMHO
Derek,
No one is covering the fentanyl labs in TO and VAN. Their existence under the auspices of organized crime and a particular foreign power has been well documented by the DEA and other agencies.
I agree, and disgustingly those labs have been created to serve the Canadian market, not for export to the US.
Yes, but who would have thought that Chinese Communists would be so good at trade and markets?
Surplus supply is only an hour away in those cases to a much larger American market if the need to export ever arose…
As the great H L Mencken stated, “The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out…without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he come to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, intolerable.” The Conservatives were never going to succeed as long as the Liberals were able to wrap themselves in the flag. After all, patriotism is the last resort of a scoundrel. Maybe Mr Carney will be able to turn things around financially, not alienate significant portions of the country and we’ll recover from the lost decade. But I doubt it. Can’t say you weren’t warned folks. Good luck as the saying goes, you’re going to need it. The Conservatives will have to lick their wounds, and hope the party doesn’t splinter again. Although if I was a Conservative from Western Canada, I would certainly wonder what is the point in trying to convince people here to vote for somebody other than a Liberal, and maybe coming to the conclusion that we (the West) would be better off on our own.
Warren,
Why do I have a feeling that the always ethical Liberals have billboarded that quote in its proper context…
I am sure they didn’t. Oh wait, a text from my wife this morning. the unofficial dirty tricks committee the Liberals have had in Brant for years are up to their old tricks again. Should arrest a couple of them if they can identify them:
“Larry’s picture sign at the office was defaced with pink spray paint. Also the constituency office was defaced with black spray paint. The constituency office vandals were caught on camera.”
Likely this guy:
https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=3913317452330804&id=100009577637022
Warren,
Win or lose, Pierre will have my support.
Warren,
Nanos: Liberals +5;
Pallas: Liberals +5;
Mainstreet: Liberals +1;
Liaison: Liberals +3;
Abacus: Liberals +3.
If they do, Amanda “what’s her name” seemed to be on the same page as Kory “what’s his name” on P and P last night so it’s over for Pierre I guess.
I am sticking with him regardless but he needs to stop with the country music at his rallies.
Kory seems to be going well beyond mere criticism of a campaign that has the Conservatives at 39-40%. Not sure what Poilievre could have done to comfort the terrified “baaaah”ing sheep who used to be the NDP base and who have herded over to the Liberals because Orange Man Bad.
Doug Ford benefited from a perfectly split Opposition that Poilievre doesn’t have. He’s used that good fortune to govern as a tax and spend leftist.
Ford and Kory “what’s his name” are both wearing casts because they have broken their arms patting themselves on the back.
And two more anonymous Ontario Conservatives assholes spoke to the Globe and the Star about Pierre potentially losing his seat.
Pedant,
One day, in due time, we will get to a leadership race. One guess on who Kory will support or “manage”…
I have made up my mind on Trump’s behaviour and the game theory. Trump inserted himself in the election again. He knows the impact will be to boost Carney. Carney is clearly his preferred candidate. Let that sink in.
Trump may be after Alberta.
Interesting idea and the best theory I have heard so far.
RKJ,
We can keep AB but gladly send him Smith! LOL.
Yes
President Trump interfered in our election, and it’s very unfortunate.
The problem with the conservatives, like Warren has outlined, is their base. A brainwashed radicalized base that Pierre and Jenni Bryne thought would propel them to the pm’s office. That nasty base that questions the results of the election, only when it doesn’t go their way, that threatens separation when they don’t get their way – they have a problem with democracy, they’re absolutely brainwashed with conspiracy theory – As Canadians we know who their base is, and it makes us sick -that’s why the conservatives will lose
Oh for gawd sake. Get off the interwebs and go touch some grass. Even if true, I suppose I would rather hang around with them than a bunch of anti-semites that your base is full of. See what I did there.
And what percentage of Conservative voters, in your view, consists of this “nasty base” that you describe? Do tell.
Od like to see the research on that, but they elected Poilievre so – a lot
Doc,
For Curious, it’s at least 110 percent.
lol – you’’re alright Ronald, I just can’t stand that radical base – they’re the fringe of the political spectrum and I can’t stand their bullshit.
Lol I’m with my buddies getting tipsy and high watching the Leafs game, and we are discussing politics and these angry boys are Conservative but don’t vote. They don’t fucking vote. Yadda yadda they think there’s no point (we live in Toronto Danforth so I sort of get it but still, go vote bitches). Anyhow one of them made me laugh saying “Canada, the year 3009, and Derek says “Well the Liberals are the natural governing party they’ve held power for 2595 years out of the last 3000” lol ,sorry WK I know you disapprove of drunken posts.
Derek,
My nagging fear is exactly that: that CPC inclined young men will not vote in record or highly significant numbers. And even if they did, at least seventy percent of young women will be voting mostly Liberal but some NDP. So…I hope I’m full of shit but…
I will now predict it. Conservative majority but only achieved by 1-2 seats.
Dink,
[Smiling.] Now, that took guts. My compliments. If it happens, Pierre must understand that the same people who successfully propped up Harper twice better be in his PMO. We will badly need that expertise not to get defeated if it’s only a minority. Pierre must not be another Clark who took it as a given that Social Credit would save his ass. They abstained and he was done.
I hope you’re right.
Sorry WK, but it’s not a flawless campaign when your leader is underwater in popularity because of his embrace of stupid Trumpy rhetoric like “woke ideology”, your party refuses to distance itself from right-wing nutjobs, Alberta separatists and other assorted extremists, and you have failed to reframe the ballot question to affordability (where you probably win) or effectively pivot to speak to Canadians on the Trump threat out of fear of alienating your own base.
Technically competent, perhaps, but strategically inept.
Gord,
I never agreed that the so-called woke issue should be prominent in this campaign. All it telegraphs is social conservative sympathies, and that’s always a major vote killer in this country. Pierre informally and unofficially embraced Smith, and that did him no good en Ontario. He should have had some daylight between himself and her, but he preferred to listen to the great Peterson and swallow his now foreign-based pablum…
I think Pierre did well on affordability and cost of living issues, but he was too soft and too late to the party on Trump. Hope it doesn’t cost us the election.
Well said