— Feature, Musings —04.09.2025 07:39 AM
Campaign notebook: woulda coulda shoulda
My plane from Washington landed just as Donald Trump’s tariffs were hitting. The plane was on time. So was he.
Will things be as bad as the economists are prognosticating? Well, yes. Things are about to get very bad.
**
I was in the States because we were shooting a documentary near and around the U.S. Capitol yesterday. For some of it, The film crew shot B roll of me loitering near the Canadian Embassy. At one point, I muttered something to myself, like old guys do, and one of the crew asked me what I’d said.
“Poilievre won’t ever be boss of this place,” I said. They looked puzzled. “Never mind,” I said.
In the coming days after Canadians vote, Conservative spin meisters will flood the air waves saying that “no one predicted” Trudeau leaving, Trump winning, tariffs arriving.
But, um, that won’t be true, will it?
Some of us had been saying, for months, that Trudeau would depart. Weeks before the vote, I said that Kamala Harris was losing, too. Equally, Your Humble Narrator volunteered for Harris in the U.S. and every day – every day – Trump would talk about his tariffs plan. Every day.
I wasn’t the only one making these predictions. Others did, too. They weren’t radical opinions.
That’s what makes the likely coming defeat of Pierre Poilievre so politically unforgivable. The Tories had time to get ready, and make changes to the strategy.
And they didn’t.
**
Getting ready is 99% of the job in politics. The Conservatives didn’t get ready. Like all conservatives, they prefer stability and constancy. But we live in a world where those things don’t really exist anymore. Hats off, Mr. Trump.
There were things that the Conservative campaign could’ve done months before the vote. Here are my top three.
**
Before Doug Ford became a regular on the American news TV circuit, Pierre Poilievre could have – and should have – done the same damn thing.
Americans have only a passing acquaintance with the pecking order in Canadian politics. For example, when they hear that you work for a Canadian Senator, they actually think it’s a Senator like one of theirs: you know, elected and therefore legitimate.
Appearing on American TV with the title of “Canadian Leader of His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition” would’ve commanded Jake Tapper’s attention. And Pierre could have gone on there and told the gospel truth: “Donald Trump isn’t a real conservative, Jake. He believes in interfering in the markets, in the private sector, and in peoples lives. Real conservatives don’t do those things.”
Would Poilievre have ever done that? Of course not. But he needed to create a lot of light between themselves and Trump, months ago.
He didn’t.
**
The next thing that Team Blue needed to have done is to remember the only thing I really learned in law school. They needed to always ask them themselves this question: “What if I’m wrong?”
As in, what if they were wrong about Justin Trudeau leaving? A majority of them had convinced themselves that the former Liberal leader was an idiot and a narcissist, and he would never ever quit.
Well, there’s no disputing that he was a narcissist. But he was no idiot. He beat three capable Conservative leaders in a row, and he knew, in his tiny black heart, that the jig was up.
In 1992, when I was running the very first War Room in Canadian politics, we asked ourselves that question a lot: what if we’re wrong? We figured Mulroney would go, but we weren’t certain who would replace him. So we assigned Kim Campbell to me, Jean Charest to Marc Laframboise, and so on and so on. All of us knew every single thing all of those people had said and done going back to high school.
We were ready, in other words.
The Poilievre Tories have given us every indication that they weren’t ready for the rapid ascension of Mark Carney. At all. They let him define himself before they could define him.
The China stuff, for example. My War Room would’ve been all over that like ravenous dogs on a bone. The Poilievre Conservatives, meanwhile, treat like it’s a meme.
The memes are funny. But the subject matter is serious, too.
Again: they didn’t do that.
**
The third and final thing that Pierre Poilievre could have done was to promote the living hell out of his plan to respond to Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Because, make no mistake: Poilievre has the better plan to deal with them. In particular, he doesn’t believe that it’s good economic policy to leave Canadian energy resources in the ground. Like Carney clearly does.
If Poilievre had done that – even on the aforementioned Tapper show – it would’ve paid two big dividends. It would have shown him championing Canada to the Americans. And it would have shown him as The Guy With A Plan.
He didn’t do that, either. Like too many people – not just conservatives, he kept hoping that the tariff stuff was a bad dream that we would all wake up from.
It wasn’t a dream.
**
Nor, now, is what is happening in this election campaign. It ain’t a dream. The polls tell the real story, not snapshots of big campaign rallies. And the real story is that the Conservatives are losing.
Can they snatch victory from the jaws of defeat? Yes they can. Absolutely. Just for starters, in the debates, Pierre Poilievre can say the things that I have recommended he say about Trump.
Will he? Of course not. No one ever listens to me.
Sure is good to be home, however.
Problem with Pierre and enacting his plan is that, like with the election – like with his persona since becoming a public one – he offends huge swaths of the population. He has become a lightening rod for what everybody hates about these clowns on the extreme right who literally get everything wrong – there’s no way this guy, like Harper before him, could build enough good will to get pipelines built in this country. Cutting the industrial carbon tax is another stupid policy that will further alienate residents of other provinces – making it yet more difficult to build the consensus required to get oil to new markets – Poilievre is the wrong choice for Canada
I really am surprised that they weren’t ready for carney, and that they hadn’t figured out that their proximity to Trumps style – ignorant fools that prescribe to that style of politics – that it would be a problem for them – they were so busy congratulating each other, riding high in the polls, that they lost track strategically and they’re paying for it now. They saw Doug Ford win big and didn’t take notes – stuck to this stupid messaging that I saw as flawed immediately – I’m an amateur, they’re supposed. To be professionals so with all that money and brain power how did they get it all so wrong.
Been part of a crowd that heard Poilièvre speak, on two occasions.
My takeaway: not interested in what other people think.
After April 28th, reluctant to say, but me thinks he’ll have lots of time on his hands … Searchin’ for his long lost shaker of salt
I was prepared to disagree with your reasons, but you have proven me wrong. Number 1 is the most important. Ford stole the CPC’s campaign thunder by framing Trump as the ballot question. I wonder how the situation would be different if Ford hadn’t called the election.
I am still shocked at how easily the Liberals shed the Trudeau baggage, both the cult of personality and the horrible policies of the lost decade. Do you think that the CPC campaign could have succeeded in portraying the “new” Liberals to be the same as the old Liberals? Telford and Butts are still pulling the strings. Carney is still a climate change zealot. Some of the same rats (ex. Sean Fraser, Anita Anand, Nate Eskine Smith) are jumping back on the ship.
The Lieberals are just pretending the last nine years didn’t happen.
And hoping the voters are dumb enough to play along.
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes!
Both of your comments Doug & Andrew illustrate why Carney is ahead. Your obsession with Butts & Telford, calling cabinet ministers “rats” etc etc, it turns people off, it reminds them of the convoy and how Poilievre brought them Tim Horton’s. It is Trumpy. This is why the voters DON’T forget the last 10 years but want Carney anyway. Your party is just THAT offputting.
What are you talking about?
Butts & Telford, as well as incompetent cabinet ministers should turn people off.
The past 9 years have been dismal, and were completely avoidable.
And now, all of a sudden, everything is going to be better?
Don’t think so
Douglas,
Those doofuses couldn’t even organize a leadership vote properly. 37.75% of party members elected this arrogant asshole who keeps sniping at reporters for daring to ask The SunKingTM questions he happens not to like, or doesn’t plan on answering. This guy, Carney, is a piece of work, but not in a good way. What a dipshit.
Calling something Trumpy is recursive.
Delivering coffee to convoy types who offend urbane Laurentian sensibilities with their aesthetic and lifestyle choices is a predictor of future behavior, but Butts and Telford’s policy agenda of no per capita GDP growth for 10 years is not?
Sean Fraser claimed to not run again to spend time with his family (https://www.pictouadvocate.com/community/sean-fraser-resigns-as-mp-to-focus-his-time-on-family/article_7fc60c82-bd45-11ef-b698-83a3541bf377.html). Did he decide his family wasn’t worth it, or did the polls improve? He also lead the department that lost control of immigration. So maybe “rat” was the wrong word. He is incompetent and insincere and, sadly, likely to be re-elected.
Everyone has biases. What did the convoy do beyond offending people with their aesthetic and lifestyle choices? Were you as offended by the protestors that blocked rail lines in early 2020, because in my mind anybody that interferes with infrastructure of any type should face legal consequence.
It blows my mind that anyone could think that offences related to the convoy are even in the same universe as 10 years of no per capita GDP growth. Butts and Telford
Yeah that must be it. Voters are offended because some Conservatives are noting that the same people who advised the Trudeau government are now advising the Carney team. Plus some even worse new entrants (Century Initiative’s Mark Wiseman). Sounds like a completely rational thought process. The wine-grandmas are defending the honour of such unimpeachable individuals as Butts and Telford.
Warren,
In two names: Danielle Smith, Jenni Byrne.
They really aren’t helpful – ideologues who have a hard time pivoting because they’re so attached to their messaging and ideology – a pragmatist sees it like it is and operates accordingly, an ideologue will stick to their idiocy no matter what is happening in the real world.
Neither of whom is running for federal office. Byrne could be seen as a potential PMO insider.
Warren,
It’s tightening up nicely but there are a lot of wasted votes for the CPC in the West.
Liaison Strategies: Liberals +7;
Mainstreet Research: Liberals +3;
Nanos: Liberals +4.
The seat-rich 905 has swung completely back to the Liberals.
Game. Set. Match
People love attaching sports analogies to politics these days, so here goes:
There is only once difference between a Championship Team and a Very Good Team. It is the ability to win different kinds of games. A few points up, a few points down, close games, defensive gems, offensive juggernauts… doesn’t matter… a Championship Team will figure it out.
Throughout Canadian history – and Poilievre is repeating this – The Conservatives have only won elections that were framed very well for their opening, well crafted message.
The Liberals however (not often but occasionally) can figure out a pivot to win elections that they have no fu@#ing business winning at all. I really mean no… f&*king… business…. at all….
The Liberals are a Championship team, ugly warts, internal feuds and all the rest of it… Conservatives are the Buffalo Bills with 13 seconds to go…. again.
Lol – great!!!
Pierre Poilievre hasn’t gotten enough support from Doig Ford and Jean Charest. Are they voting Liberal? Maybe Pierre Poilievre never expected President Trump to show so much disrespect for Canada. If he’d met the president before the election, the president would have been happy, but the Canadian media would have criticized him very strongly.
Mark Carney has a good resume. He looks really good on paper. His love of the country and ability to develop the country’s resources and improve the economy are a big question, though.
Gilbert,
Our politicians could go down and kiss the ring in Mar-a-Lago and get nowhere. Smith proved that one in spades. They could even lick Trump’s ass and still the tariffs would come. A lovely double entendre.