Mainstreet just flipped CPC +1. Still means an easy Liberal win and possibly even a slim majority. Need other pollsters to confirm Mainstreet’s trend, but wouldn’t that be something. Would be the first time in Canadian history a party wins a *majority* while losing the popular vote.
I will note that Mainstreet was one of the first two pollsters (along with EKOS) to catch the shift to the Liberals in February.
First time in Canadian history at the *federal* level, I should have said.
Glen Clark’s BC NDP lost the popular vote and won a majority in 1996, and Lucien Bouchard’s PQ did the same in 1998. I’m sure there a few other provincial examples.
First time in Canadian history at the *federal* level, I should have said.
Glen Clark’s BC NDP lost the popular vote and won a majority in 1996, and Lucien Bouchard’s PQ did the same in 1998. I’m sure there are a few other provincial examples.
I don’t know about you, but post-Harris, I don’t put a lot of stock in polling trends. Quite literally, anything can happen. I post them here, thanks to our host, only for information purposes.
My gut says Carney’s support is now a mile wide but an inch deep. Pierre needs to take full advantage of that. We can still win especially if Carney continues to fumble repeatedly from day to day.
You know you’re still solid in the polls when the dominating emotion that the other guy provokes among potential voters is ??? Everyone either loves or hates Pierre. Carney: People have unsettling and worrying feelings as to whether this guy is really up to the job.
Pierre thinks he can set the agenda and exclusively bang it home to win. WRONG.But as you’ve said, he needs to expand his agenda beyond the current platform and talking points. To win, we need to foster a bigger tent in only two weeks.
Random thoughts:
-Kory is the LAST guy that should be able to accuse anyone of campaign malpractice given the expectations the guy set up for Justin and the debates in 2015. I am not in the business and even I know that. And Ford won because he is a HOAG. Anyone could have run that campaign so to see folks breaking their arms patting themselves on the back to take credit for it is hilarious
-kind of related to the above but I assume the knives will be out if Pierre doesn’t get at least a minority but what if he exceeds the 39.62% Harper got in 2011 or(less likely) the 43.02% Mulroney got in 1988. My vote would be no(probably no anyway).
-hopefully signs are indication of something because Brant has set a record. And here is how the Liberals have responded: https://x.com/MartinDixon13/status/1911407862850465847
-pretty sure I know who that guy is. Local Liberals literally have always had a dirty tricks committee.
-I will be personally fine if we lose our riding-all I am doing is raising money. I will be moody for a day or two but my wife is working her butt off for Larry-first time in about 3 election cycles
-I think Occam’s razor applies to Carney’s views on Gaza. Everyone keeps telling us he can count and that is all he has done. Total political calculation. I am guessing he isn’t an anti-semite but who really knows
-what is going on with Mraz-two weeks in a row and just a depressing talk on world affairs-no questions from Warren
-don’t understand the concept of low alcohol beer-strikes me that it is the same as drinking decaf
-the I told you so article Warren pulled out from a year ago-I went back to see what I said-I said “run like you are losing”
-as I said before-on the Pierre dropping the pizza bit-it was funny and for a guy that could be in the middle of blowing a 20 point lead, he sure seems to be having a legitimately good time-45:30 in: https://x.com/PierrePoilievre/status/1910467800348664055
-that laugh was not forced-there was some discussion online about another guy who does not have a forced laugh but I better not digress
-the other ironic thing related to how Pierre was responsible for getting rid of the carbon tax that somehow the mad cow addled Liberal supporters have given Carney credit for is that the NDP were actually responsible for most of the Liberal successes and now they are getting crushed
-I think Robyn was taking the wrong lesson from the crowd sizes in the US. Trump’s and Harris’s were similar but the Trump crowds were more motivated(Harris had a natural union and public service base to get folks to rallies) and he had more of them. Whether that made a difference, who knows: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-kamala-harris-comparing-campaigns-2024-election-1980054
-as far as stop the steal goes, there is a difference between this election and the 2020 US election, there were lots of changes to the voting rules because of the plague. We don’t have anything like that now.
On the music:
-no Arcade Fire? The CBC were highlighting their new track all week
-your Time track was great-but you have played before-no? Will pick it up once you let us know how. I hear some Rusty, Doughboys, Ghandharvas and Sandbox-all great 90s Canadian bands. And even a bit of Wiretrain.
-somehow I wasn’t familiar with Radio 4-excellent.
-Teen Mortgage and Slow Death great too
The debates will be huge. They’re the conservatives last chance. If they don’t score a major blow, Carney will win – same goes for the Bloc, it’s their last chance to break through, otherwise it’s over for them.
My gut (and polls) tells me huge swaths of the NDP are voting Liberal, and that won’t change with the debates. They’re voting against Poilievre’s trumpy style. In Quebec I’m not as sure if the Bloc vote will continue to bleed to the Liberals, but I think it will hold because of the guys running America. My gut tells me it’s Carney, but if he has serious issues in the debates, well that’s the last chance for this to turn on the Liberals – otherwise the Liberals will win.
And you are voting with the billionaire oligarchs that supported Carney’s leadership bid. How is that going down south? The NDP are so cute. This is reasonably funny. It is literally your base and what they sound like.
Carney comes off as a competent manager, and a trusted boss, or leader. Not too high, not too low – steady and with purpose, that’s how Carney seems to me.
Poilievre is chanting with all the angry guys and everybody else turns away. He’s Trumpy but Trump doesn’t sell as well in the north.
Liberals caught creating fake pins with Trump slogans and distributing them at the Manning conference to misrepresent the views of conservative Canadians.
The Liberal Party is a plague and will only become more depraved. Boomers can’t prop it up forever.
On Buttongate, this convinces me even more that the Nazi flag in Ottawa during the convoy protest was a false flag operation. It is not an unreasonable conclusion.
In a multi-week protest of hundreds of thousands of citizens, Liberal activists in the MSM captured a whole THREE photos of a swastika, and two of them were comparing Trudeau (unreasonably) to what the swastika represents, not glorifying it. The other photo was ambiguous on this regard, even assuming the photo is real and not doctored.
One guy went marching through the crowd in a ski mask carrying, I believe, a confederate flag (not a Nazi flag). Conveniently he was never identified. Does anyone believe the activist MSM or its proxies in the PMO and adjacents (Butts etc) couldn’t have found out who this person was and doxxed him if this weren’t a false flag? Around that time, Gerald Butts and his friend Dean Blundell were regularly broadcasting on Twitter the names of ordinary citizens who had donated to the convoy.
What is this “activist MSM” you speak of? Do you really think somebody from the CBC or Globe and Mail donned a ski mask and paraded a flag in the midst of all that just to stir up shit? Give me a break.
Warren,
I don’t lie about mine. LOL.
Warren,
The Carney Liberals are ahead only by single digits now:
Liaison: Liberals +8;
Mainstreet: Liberals +1;
Nanos: Liberals +5.
Mainstreet just flipped CPC +1. Still means an easy Liberal win and possibly even a slim majority. Need other pollsters to confirm Mainstreet’s trend, but wouldn’t that be something. Would be the first time in Canadian history a party wins a *majority* while losing the popular vote.
I will note that Mainstreet was one of the first two pollsters (along with EKOS) to catch the shift to the Liberals in February.
First time in Canadian history at the *federal* level, I should have said.
Glen Clark’s BC NDP lost the popular vote and won a majority in 1996, and Lucien Bouchard’s PQ did the same in 1998. I’m sure there a few other provincial examples.
First time in Canadian history at the *federal* level, I should have said.
Glen Clark’s BC NDP lost the popular vote and won a majority in 1996, and Lucien Bouchard’s PQ did the same in 1998. I’m sure there are a few other provincial examples.
Pedant,
I don’t know about you, but post-Harris, I don’t put a lot of stock in polling trends. Quite literally, anything can happen. I post them here, thanks to our host, only for information purposes.
Warren,
Wow, Brian has got guts. Kudos.
Warren,
Carney makes Harper look unrobotic. Quite an achievement.
Warren,
My gut says Carney’s support is now a mile wide but an inch deep. Pierre needs to take full advantage of that. We can still win especially if Carney continues to fumble repeatedly from day to day.
I agree. Mr. Carney is vulnerable. Where does he file his taxes?
Warren,
You know you’re still solid in the polls when the dominating emotion that the other guy provokes among potential voters is ??? Everyone either loves or hates Pierre. Carney: People have unsettling and worrying feelings as to whether this guy is really up to the job.
Warren,
It isn’t women at large that will determine the election. It’s progressive women.
Warren,
Pierre thinks he can set the agenda and exclusively bang it home to win. WRONG.But as you’ve said, he needs to expand his agenda beyond the current platform and talking points. To win, we need to foster a bigger tent in only two weeks.
Karl,
If the Stiles machine is still 100%, the Liberals should start shaking in Ontario.
Warren,
Poor Comrade Carney.
Warren,
Carney comes off as a guy with chronic hemorrhoids.
John,
I prefer my Mraz live, you know, mixing things up with our host.
The CIA has told Trump that Iran now has the nukes. That’s why neither of the dynamic duo is offensively attacking Iran.
Long show, long post. Hopefully it goes through.
Random thoughts:
-Kory is the LAST guy that should be able to accuse anyone of campaign malpractice given the expectations the guy set up for Justin and the debates in 2015. I am not in the business and even I know that. And Ford won because he is a HOAG. Anyone could have run that campaign so to see folks breaking their arms patting themselves on the back to take credit for it is hilarious
-kind of related to the above but I assume the knives will be out if Pierre doesn’t get at least a minority but what if he exceeds the 39.62% Harper got in 2011 or(less likely) the 43.02% Mulroney got in 1988. My vote would be no(probably no anyway).
-hopefully signs are indication of something because Brant has set a record. And here is how the Liberals have responded:
https://x.com/MartinDixon13/status/1911407862850465847
-pretty sure I know who that guy is. Local Liberals literally have always had a dirty tricks committee.
-I will be personally fine if we lose our riding-all I am doing is raising money. I will be moody for a day or two but my wife is working her butt off for Larry-first time in about 3 election cycles
-I think Occam’s razor applies to Carney’s views on Gaza. Everyone keeps telling us he can count and that is all he has done. Total political calculation. I am guessing he isn’t an anti-semite but who really knows
-what is going on with Mraz-two weeks in a row and just a depressing talk on world affairs-no questions from Warren
-don’t understand the concept of low alcohol beer-strikes me that it is the same as drinking decaf
-the I told you so article Warren pulled out from a year ago-I went back to see what I said-I said “run like you are losing”
-as I said before-on the Pierre dropping the pizza bit-it was funny and for a guy that could be in the middle of blowing a 20 point lead, he sure seems to be having a legitimately good time-45:30 in:
https://x.com/PierrePoilievre/status/1910467800348664055
-that laugh was not forced-there was some discussion online about another guy who does not have a forced laugh but I better not digress
-the other ironic thing related to how Pierre was responsible for getting rid of the carbon tax that somehow the mad cow addled Liberal supporters have given Carney credit for is that the NDP were actually responsible for most of the Liberal successes and now they are getting crushed
-I think Robyn was taking the wrong lesson from the crowd sizes in the US. Trump’s and Harris’s were similar but the Trump crowds were more motivated(Harris had a natural union and public service base to get folks to rallies) and he had more of them. Whether that made a difference, who knows:
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-kamala-harris-comparing-campaigns-2024-election-1980054
-as far as stop the steal goes, there is a difference between this election and the 2020 US election, there were lots of changes to the voting rules because of the plague. We don’t have anything like that now.
On the music:
-no Arcade Fire? The CBC were highlighting their new track all week
-your Time track was great-but you have played before-no? Will pick it up once you let us know how. I hear some Rusty, Doughboys, Ghandharvas and Sandbox-all great 90s Canadian bands. And even a bit of Wiretrain.
-somehow I wasn’t familiar with Radio 4-excellent.
-Teen Mortgage and Slow Death great too
Hadn’t had new tune mixed and mastered yet. Now it is.
Martin,
I will stick with Pierre, whether we win or lose. There’s no way I want to see Ford as our next leader — not after this doozy.
The debates will be huge. They’re the conservatives last chance. If they don’t score a major blow, Carney will win – same goes for the Bloc, it’s their last chance to break through, otherwise it’s over for them.
My gut (and polls) tells me huge swaths of the NDP are voting Liberal, and that won’t change with the debates. They’re voting against Poilievre’s trumpy style. In Quebec I’m not as sure if the Bloc vote will continue to bleed to the Liberals, but I think it will hold because of the guys running America. My gut tells me it’s Carney, but if he has serious issues in the debates, well that’s the last chance for this to turn on the Liberals – otherwise the Liberals will win.
And you are voting with the billionaire oligarchs that supported Carney’s leadership bid. How is that going down south? The NDP are so cute. This is reasonably funny. It is literally your base and what they sound like.
https://x.com/thesovereignceo/status/1911503801636540759
Carney comes off as a competent manager, and a trusted boss, or leader. Not too high, not too low – steady and with purpose, that’s how Carney seems to me.
Poilievre is chanting with all the angry guys and everybody else turns away. He’s Trumpy but Trump doesn’t sell as well in the north.
It’s hilarious.
Warren,
Well, what do you know. Absolutely no surprise from Carney Liberals who will do anything to win.
The National Post:
https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/federal_election/spread-of-fake-campaign-pins-disgusting-says-senior-tory
From: The CBC.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-oppo-csfn-1.7509217
Liberals caught creating fake pins with Trump slogans and distributing them at the Manning conference to misrepresent the views of conservative Canadians.
The Liberal Party is a plague and will only become more depraved. Boomers can’t prop it up forever.
Pedant,
SNC Lavalin should have killed off the Liberals but good. When it didn’t, it told us everything we need to know about Trudeau-Carney Liberals.
On Buttongate, this convinces me even more that the Nazi flag in Ottawa during the convoy protest was a false flag operation. It is not an unreasonable conclusion.
It is if it can’t be proven. This was.
In a multi-week protest of hundreds of thousands of citizens, Liberal activists in the MSM captured a whole THREE photos of a swastika, and two of them were comparing Trudeau (unreasonably) to what the swastika represents, not glorifying it. The other photo was ambiguous on this regard, even assuming the photo is real and not doctored.
One guy went marching through the crowd in a ski mask carrying, I believe, a confederate flag (not a Nazi flag). Conveniently he was never identified. Does anyone believe the activist MSM or its proxies in the PMO and adjacents (Butts etc) couldn’t have found out who this person was and doxxed him if this weren’t a false flag? Around that time, Gerald Butts and his friend Dean Blundell were regularly broadcasting on Twitter the names of ordinary citizens who had donated to the convoy.
What is this “activist MSM” you speak of? Do you really think somebody from the CBC or Globe and Mail donned a ski mask and paraded a flag in the midst of all that just to stir up shit? Give me a break.