— Feature, Musings —04.26.2025 11:11 PM
My final campaign notebook: the story so far
When the story of the 2025 election campaign is written, when it takes up its place in the history section in the library, what will be said? What will be the moral of the tale?
Every election is like a book. It has a beginning, a middle and the end. It has its protagonists and its antagonists, its lesser characters, its moments of pathos and bathos. It has (usually, hopefully) a plot.
The plot in this one, this election story, was simple. Everything was going one way, towards a conclusion that seemed inevitable: the ascension of Pierre Poilievre to the office of Prime Minister, and a historically-huge Conservative Parliamentary majority – and the reduction of the despised Justin Trudeau Liberals to irrelevance.
And then, at the end of the first chapter in January, a villain entered the plot. The villain was so awful, so rotten, so cruel, he was almost a caricature. But he was real. Simultaneously, Justin Trudeau – defeated, dejected, no longer the right one for the coming battle – left the stage.
Without warning, without just cause, the next chapter commenced with the villain named Donald Trump destroying things: the established world order, free trade, the rule of law. That was chapter two. Peace, order, and good government were shredded, and by chapter three – in and around the month of February, 2025 – the skies had gone dark and the inevitable conclusion, a Pierre Poilievre majority government, was no longer inevitable.
As plot twists go, it was almost fantastical. For that month, for that chapter, Canadians quietly went about their business, shaking their heads, quiet as church mice. Initially, we dismissed Trump’s threats as a deeply unfunny joke, told by a drunken guy at the end of the bar who refuses to leave at closing time. Then, eventually, none of it was funny anymore, and Canadians cancelled Spring Break trips to Florida or Arizona or Hawaii, and they stopped buying Campbell’s Soup. Chapter three: a crisis deepens.
The putative hero of the piece, like all of the best heroes (King Arthur, Spiderman, David of Goliath fame), didn’t initially resemble one. He didn’t look or sound remotely like a saviour. Mark Carney, in style and content, had a banker’s approach, mainly because that was all he had ever been. It was hard to picture him in a suit of shining armour, leading a brave charge up the hill against the villain Trump.
Pierre Poilievre, meanwhile, did look like a warrior, because that was all that he had ever been. He had a soldier’s swagger and mien. It was easy to picture him defending the Alamo, or Gettysburg, or emerging victorious at Iwo Jima.
And therein lays the big plot twist: those were American battles, and American victories, weren’t they? There was something about Pierre Poilievre’s way – his choice of language, his policies, his style – that suggested, subtly and then not so subtly, that he may not have his musket pointed in the right direction when the final battle happened.
In other books, in other tales, there have been characters a bit like that. Dr. Watson to Sherlock Holmes, Trapper John to Hawkeye, even Chewbacca to Han Solo. Great characters, great heroes. But always playing second fiddle to the main guy. Here, in this book, that’s the quiet, analytical banker who sometimes spins fantastical tales of his own. Mark Carney.
It’s an odd story, this 2025 Canadian general federal election. An epic battle – literally, truly – for a nation’s existence, for all the marbles. And, in a plot twist that will be remembered long after the book is put away, the people abruptly decided to put their fates in the hands of the guy who has never been in a war like this before. And not the other guy, the fighter named Poilievre.
That, at the conclusion of this book, is the moral of the tale: sometimes, the people will surprise you. Sometimes, they will not rally behind the warrior, the one who knows how to fight. Sometimes, they will choose the other guy – not because they believe he is a soldier. They will choose him to lead because they think his heart is in the right place. Because they think he isn’t going side with the villain, at the end.
Quite a book, isn’t it? Doesn’t sound believable. But it’s on its way to becoming a bestseller, just the same.
I think they’re choosing carney because when he talks about the economy, and a response he speaks with clarity and purpose – he seems like the most credible and competent. I don’t think people are as interested in Poilievre stupid Trumpy slogans as they are drawn to Carneys economic vision and solid Canadian values.
You love to pontificate about the base of the right and guess what and by the way, Brian Lilley(and others) did everyone a service by highlighting this lunatic on X yesterday. She is polling at 34%.
https://x.com/stephen_taylor/status/1916200912361529414
YOUR base is voting for that and Carney signed her nomination papers. I wonder if the baby boomer “ancients” understand they they WILL get the government they deserve.
Martin,
Can you say complaints to the Canadian and provincial medical association? Because here it comes. And justifiably so.
I saw a reasonably sane local defending her and his argument was that she was a step up from previous NDP and Liberal candidates in the riding. That is frightening.
That’s very sad. Maybr she doesn’t want the votes of seniors.
Odd — aren’t Liberals supposed to have a lock on older voters? That’s what I read all the time on this comment board. I guess she didn’t get the memo from LPC Central.
Warren,
You already know what I think about conventional wisdom and groupthink consensus. At the very least, take it with a large grain of salt. Anything is still possible, given that we cannot be in the minds of a majority or even a plurality of voters.
In the American election, Harris lost the popular vote by 1.6 percent, while we were all sure that she would win comfortably. In the last days of her campaign, people began to have doubts, but in their heart of hearts, they still expected her to win. In addition, the revised turnout of Democratic voters who did not show up at the polls was roughly 6.2 million.
So, once again GOTV will rule the day.
you’re right Ronald, anything is possible. At this point I think most have decided who they’d like to vote for, so now it’s all about making sure they actually vote.
There seems to be a divide in the tory party with eastern PCers holding back support for the Conservative party, and with more right-wing western premiers supporting PP. In Nova Scotia, for instance, Tim Houston is making a clear attempt to distance his party from the federal party.
Ford and Houston recognize that the extremes of the western base are too much for their provinces, so supporting PP would likely damage the PC brand –
Curious,
Who cares if Ford and Houston allegedly don’t like Pierre. This election is all about loyalty and not pulling the rug out from under the federal party. Some people have failed that test and it will be seered in our minds forever. Again, if Pierre loses, he will have my unqualified support and I’m a Red Tory. And I seriously doubt that he will go if he loses. Charest didn’t win on his first try as premier either. How ironic that they may have that in common tomorrow. But I still think we can win if the voting breaks our way tomorrow.
Ummmm…it must be a tad uncomfortable in the Houston household because his wife is volunteering for the party. Ford and Houston have precisely one vote each, the last time I looked and Ford’s order to his mps not to support the Federal candidates has not been followed. Nice try.
Martin,
Hopefully, there goes someone’s leadership ambitions. If not, I and hopefully many others will move Heaven and Earth to block him from the throne some day.
Warren,
338canada.com is offline due to a DoS. Hope it’s back up and running before midnight.
My prediction – Liberal majority
Bold.
Almost
Personally I am waiting to see how many eligible voters voted. That will tell me the measure of patriotism and concern we have in Canada. I’m actually afraid to look.
Pipes,
Wise move!
God bless Canada even though she’s not the Canada I would like. But I digress.
33% of eligible voters care not for their own country.
I have a considerable statement to make, but its not fit to print.
This campaign may prove one thing. How stupid and easily manipulated the average voter is by a campaign of fear that’s not based in reality. Canada is not becoming part of the States and anyone not being intellectually dishonest knows that. President Bonespurs is all talk. The Americans don’t want us a we don’t want them. If the Liberals win I expect some vey quick buyers remorse when people remember what the real issues are and what party was responsible for them. I must say that I chuckle to myself when it comes to polls. The same pundits calling this in the bag for the Libs are the exact same people that after every election wonder how the polls got it so wrong. Then right on cue they’re back to taking the next polls as gospel. We need look no further than last November. Younger voters are always under represented in polling because they don’t answer them and for them the issue is cost of living. This is a turnout and motivation election. Like young voters and dope gave Trudeau 2015 those same young voters may now give this to Pollievre because of housing and cost of living. That all being said I’m preparing for the worst and another 4 years of trainwreck governing. These clowns didn’t all of a sudden miraculously grow a brain and become competent. Tonight voters will get what they deserve for the next 4 years. Future generations may not.