— Feature, Musings —04.16.2025 08:04 PM
My latest: my take on the French debate
The French-language debate: Brian Lilley and I watched so you didn’t have to.
Some of my Kinsellian debate rules: people don’t watch debates to have their minds changed – they watch to have their choice ratified. By that standard, Mark Carney did what he had to do. He went into the debate ahead of the others, and that is unlikely to change after the French debate.
Another rule: TV is about pictures, not words. Carney occasionally looked a bit furtive and off-balance – while Pierre Poilievre looked the most at ease. Poilievre looked, dare we say it, Prime Ministerial.
A third Kinsellian rule: voters in their living rooms are the audience – not the moderator or the other leaders. Poilievre did best on that score, and he addressed the camera most often. He wasn’t as angry he is so often in the House of Commons, too. He was calm but assertive.
My take on each contestant:
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Warren,
They all did well. No real winner.
Two things about Carney: his French was a bit better than I was expecting, and He did not blow himself out of the water in his second language. The Liberals are likely pleased with that.
Warren,
Abacus: Liberals +2;
Is the air slowly coming out of the Carney balloon?
Me thinks it is.
I can imagine the Liberals winning the election and then almost immediately becoming very unpopular as Carney shows himself to be simply Justin Trudeau with a triple-digit IQ (which actually makes him more dangerous, not less). A recession is also highly likely in the next 12-18 months.
Though after what we’ve just lived through – a massive polling inversion resulting from the hysteria of a scared voter base of emotional infants looking for mommy (LPC) to comfort them – I will never again in my life regard polling data as anything more than light entertainment outside the final two of an election campaign.
I agree. The new Liberals are the same as the old Liberals and the electorate’s focus on Trump will be fleeting as the real problems (cost of living, poor economic competitiveness) resurface. Too bad the election will likely result in a Liberal majority. Looks like 10 lost years will expand to 14.
Pedant,
I’m not ready to consign our campaign to the ash heap of history. Not just yet. The BQ and NDP numbers are finally moving. I’m keeping the faith.
On that note, Dufferin Ave in Brantford has historically been the old money, Rosedale type street in Brantford. Always overrated in my opinion but I digress. Full of current and retired judges, lawyers, civil servants, teachers, principals, etc. etc. Solid red signs.
“Dufferin Avenue in Brantford, Ontario, is named after Frederick Hamilton-Temple-Blackwood, 1st Marquess of Dufferin and Ava, who served as Governor General of Canada from 1872 to 1878. Before 1878, the street was known as either Western City Limits or Sideline Road south of Bloor Street. The street features a number of historically significant residences, including the Walter R. Turnbull residence and the James L. Sutherland residence, both designated for their architectural significance.”
Note to self-never buy a home that is named after someone.
Carney is coming to Brantford Friday and apparently a hit piece is coming out by Global news about Larry. I am sure that is a coincidence. Problem is that the story is false. Probably the same folks that cooked up buttongate came up with it. Anyone out there with experience suing for libel? They must think it is in play.
Martin,
Warren’s lawyers are top notch. Just in case.
Question was rhetorical.
I saw a lot of comments from native French speakers, and they were not at all impressed with Mr. Carney’s French. One person even said it was awful, and another said it was hard to listen to him. In my opinion, he looked uncomfortable.
I took Warren’s advice (sorta) and watched the debate in French (barely passed Gr 9 after the teacher gave us all the exam answers a week before). It’s the next-best thing to watching it muted I figure. Here’s my handicap…
1) Blanchet – gave off an authoritative presence. There was one point where Carney was talking and Blanchet’s eyes lit up and his body language gave off a “oh you know that’s silly” kind of vibe, which stopped Carney in his tracks. Other moments like this with the other leaders also occurred as well. If the Bloc starts getting to 25-30 seat range again, I can see how.
2) Poilievre – happy (as Warren mentioned), a bit Prime Ministerial and engaging, but also blue-washed. I know he’s got his style, but someone in the outfits department failed here.
3) Carney – greyer and more tired-looking than the others. He appeared to be experienced, yes, but more in an old warhorse kind of way versus someone who is going to take charge in a discussion with Donald Trump.
4) Singh – honestly, he just looked out of place and that he belonged less there than Liz May did this time out. I kept thinking back to Smiling Jack and how much Singh is a shadow of the NDP’s former glory days. I’m taking times for the pool now on when he resigns on election night (starting at 9 am ET).
That food you’re eating looks delicious.
Warren,
Nanos: Liberals +5.
Watching Carney in the debate and I think he did well. He’s informed, not as scripted – more knowledgeable. They didn’t land a zinger that I could see, so I say mission accomplished.