From “Chris,” email Roadhammer_@live.ca, IP 24.138.62.169. He’s somewhere in Nova Scotia, looks like.

I know you won’t approve this, but you still have to read it.

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[This is a reworked/expanded version of the post I wrote a few days ago. Quite a few of you claimed to like it, so I worked it into 625 or so words. Cheers, W.]

Now that Quebec’s separatist government has called an election – and now that there is a very real prospect of the Parti Québécois seizing a majority in the National Assembly – strap on your seat belts. We’re in for another bumpy ride, Canada.

In recent years, of course, it has been become de rigueur for the commentariat to declare that the separatist movement was “dead.” Some of us vehemently disagreed with that assessment. When your politics are entirely about identity, and long-nurtured grievances and humiliations, you never give up.

Separatist longing is unkillable, because logic has nothing to do with the desire for a separate nation. If it did, we wouldn’t be hearing – once again – about the likelihood of another Quebec referendum. It is a matter of the heart, not the head. Party platforms come and go; dreams don’t. They’re eternal.

Politically, the circumstances favour the separatists. If you survey the political landscape, and take a hard look at all the players, you’ll see why.

· Quebeckers aren’t bullish on Canada: Statistics Canada notwithstanding, most Quebecois (like most Canadians) do not believe that a robust recovery is underway. They know (as this writer suggested on this page last week) that they are still only a couple paycheques away from living on the street. To Quebec voters nervous about their economic prospects, Canada does not seem to be thriving any more than Quebec is. Pauline Marois’ argument is dishonest, but compelling in its simplicity: economically, we derive no benefits from Canada – they are pulling us down. Why not try some economic independence, for once?

· Canadians aren’t bullish on Quebec: As a smart Conservative friend told me at lunch this week, it is a fact that Canadians themselves cannot be counted on to automatically rally in support of a united Canada, as they did in 1980 and 1995. Instead, they can be expected to respond with anger and/or indifference to the sovereignty issue again being revisited. Maybe. But he is certainly not wrong when he observes that Stephen Harper, Justin Trudeau and Thomas Mulcair do not possess any of the populist political skills of Pierre Trudeau and Jean Chretien to rally average Canadians. And none of them, my friend observed, has ever fought a referendum before.

· The federalist giants are gone: The great separatist-slayers of the past – Chretien, Trudeau the Senior – have left the scene. They have been replaced by a passionless, Western anglophone Prime Minister who is reviled in Quebec; a novice Liberal leader who lacks any real support off the island of Montreal; and an NDP leader who clearly sympathizes more with sovereignty than federalism. Who, then, will speak for Canada, in the coming confrontation?

· The federal political parties aren’t ready or willing: The political culture/stature of each of the federal political parties isn’t what it was. Conservatives quietly wonder if Canada wouldn’t be better off without Quebec. Liberals have zero strength on the ground in Quebec. And the New Democrat caucus is mainly made up of former crypto-separatists. Not good.

· To many Québécois, Canada herself is a myth: Over the years, all of the symbols of Canada – ranging from things as simple as Canada Post offices to the flag – have been disappearing in Quebec. Quebeckers, therefore, can’t be condemned for wondering what their federal taxes pay for. Watch their newscasts: their world does not extend past the Ottawa River. Canada is an illusion, to most of them.

None of this is to say, of course, that the separatists are without their own problems. Marois, in particular, is no populist firebrand like a cane-wielding Lucien Bouchard was. She is no Rene Levesque.

But politics, like comedy, is all about timing. And, presently, the timing favours the separatists.

Thus, my prediction: our preoccupation, in the months to come, will not be Crimea or Syria or Iran or the Central African Republic.

It will be Quebec.

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Check what this genius tweeted tonight, then later deleted. Wow.

Then again, the possibility that he lives in a different time zone than the rest of us may explain a few things.

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“I’ll say to young women…learn how to play golf. Because you will find it’s immensely advantageous to your career.”

Those kinds of views are indeed “frankly out of date.” So is he. He’s yesterday’s man.

There are many awesome posters out there. This was one of my favorites for today.

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Here, on the Reformatories adopting Justin’s position on pot and MP expenses – after previously mocking him on both.  Holy flip-flop, Batman:

And here, about seven minutes in:

Sigh.

Well, you guys know I – like Messrs. Chretien, Romanow and Broadbent, among others – favour progressives finally coming together.  So that we stop splitting the vote, and so we finally defeat Mr. Harper.

You also know that I believe another referendum is increasingly likely – and that we all need all of the federalist political parties onside for that effort, as they mostly were in 1980 and 1995.

Thomas Mulcair has ensured that neither will happen.  With this statement, he has (a) made any cooperation with Liberals impossible and (b) he has strengthened the hand of the Parti Quebecois.

Jack Layton, Canada misses you, very much.

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To wit:

“Detectives are investigating allegations of drug use and drug trafficking and trying to determine if there was an organized, aggressive attempt to retrieve the video of Mayor Ford smoking crack cocaine and making racially charged and homophobic remarks.”

What that sentence doesn’t say is this:

1. The detectives who are investigating Rob Ford are homicide detectives – not drug squad detectives. Why do you think that is?
2. What is an “organized, aggressive attempt to retrieve the video of Mayor Rob Ford smoking crack cocaine”? Who organized it? And could that “attempt” include the actual murder of a young man who possessed the video? Hell, even Ford’s own staff thought that.
3. How close are they, if at all, to making more arrests?

That last question is a political one.  John Tory knows he can’t beat Rob Ford - only Olivia Chow can do that. Tory’s entered the race, however, because he has somehow persuaded himself (via his BFF, Mr. Pringle?) that Ford will be arrested before voting day – thus, the theory goes, removing his only obstacle to power (he’s wrong about that, natch, but that’s what he and his golf buddies believe).

Will Rob Ford ever be charged with something? Well, I’ve been hearing for months that he will be; hasn’t happened yet, though, has it?  Sandro Lisi’s iPhone is full of videos he shot of Ford to protect himself, and none of which are helpful to Ford.

But even if Mayor Crackhead is charged sometime between now and October, he won’t be facing a trial for a long, long time.  He can appeal a conviction.

That means (a) Rob Ford’s name will still be on the ballot in October – and (b) if you want to get rid of him, you therefore shouldn’t wait for the cops to do their job.

Pray Olivia Chow enters the race.  If she does, she’ll do the job.  She’s the only one who can, in fact.

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They’re also my current favourite band of all time: choreographed bubblegum pop fused with hardcore? Nobody has ever done that before!

The old metalhead at the start, horrified by what has happened to his genre? That’s my brother and his grizzled friends, realizing the genius and might of Babymetal, and that the end is nigh.

Straight edge, for the next 40 days.

Mayor Crackhead, care to join me? We can both submit to blood tests at the end.

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