Federally, and provincially, Yours Truly has been a broken record. To wit:
• The only people who think federal Conservative scandals (cf. robocalls) are a big deal are the media and political hacks.
• Justin Trudeau has reached his lifetime gaffe limit. His strengths (his youthfulness, his political inexperience) have fully become his weaknesses.
• Grits grossly underestimated Stephen Harper – again.
• In Ontario, Kathleen Wynne has waited too long to go to the people, and she doesn’t have a ballot question.
• Andrea Horwath has supported Wynne one too many times.
• Tim Hudak is reaping the benefits of his opponent’s mistakes. He’s tossed his crazy labour policy, and he’s tossed his tormentors (Klees, Hillier, Kouvalis, et al.) under the bus. With a good campaign, he can win.
The net effect of all that nationally, according to Ipsos:
“For the first time since the fall of 2013, the Federal Tories and Liberals are all tied up at 33% of the national vote each, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of CTV News.
In May 2013, following the election of Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader, the Liberals catapulted ahead of the Tories. For September and October the two parties were essentially tied, never drifting more than two points away from each other, but throughout the entire winter the Liberals held a lead – but not anymore.”
Not anymore: yep. That’s federally. In the heartland of Ontario, also from Ipsos:
“Tim Hudak and the Ontario PC Party are smartly advancing their vote support in all the right places (in the 905 and 519), increasing their provincial lead to 5 points, according to a new Ipsos Reid Poll conducted for CTV News, CP24 and Newstalk 1010.
…While an election has not been called, if these figures hold true, the Liberals would likely be crushed on their right flank while trying to fend off an attack from an emboldened NDP which is putting up a strong fight for centrist ground historically occupied by the Liberals, who have veered left.”
What’s it mean, Virginia? It means honeymoons – Wynne’s, Trudeau’s – don’t last forever. He may have peaked too soon, and she definitely waited too long.
We will see if I’m right, soon enough. But Ipsos, at least, persuades me that I’m not all wrong.
What’s your take, O gentle reader?