My latest: in a campaign about nothing positive, don’t give them something negative

The land is strong.

Sound familiar? Remember that?

The old-timers do. It was an actual slogan that was deployed in the 1972 federal election campaign. Didn’t work out too well.

In yesterday walks tomorrow, they say, and that is certainly true when one compares 1972 to 2019. The similarities are striking.

• In 1972, a Trudeau led the Liberal Party, as in 2019.
• It was a Liberal majority government seeking another majority, as now.
• Back in 1972, as in 2019, the Conservatives were led by a kind of boring, bland guy who everyone underestimated.
• The Liberals’ 1972 slogan, “the land is strong,” sucked. So does the Liberals’ 2019 slogan, “Choose Forward.” It’s ungrammatical and uninspiring.

But the Justin Trudeau folks are wedded to their crummy slogan, just like Justin’s Dad was to his. Everywhere Trudeau the Younger goes, he robotically repeats the “choose forward” mantra, and no one knows exactly what it means.

That’s never a good idea, politically but it’s potential lethal when a scandal hits – like the blackface scandal. When you have no positive message, it makes it easier for a negative message to take its place. And blackface has.

Is an election won or lost on a slogan? Of course not. But a good one should give voters a pithy idea about what is on offer. Like, you know, “Melts in your mouth, not in your hands.” Or: “Just Do It.” Or: “The Quicker Picker Upper.”

The big problem with “choose forward” is that it actually reminds voters about Justin Trudeau’s biggest problem. Which isn’t LavScam, or the Aga Khan, or Gropegate.

It’s that he hasn’t done what he said he was going to do. And he hasn’t done much at all, really.

Let’s crack open the history book again.

From 1968 to 1972, when his Dad was Prime Minister and enjoying a strong parliamentary majority, lots of things were done: the Just Society, universal health care, regional development, parliamentary reform, bilingualism, multiculturalism, pro-NATOism, multilateralism, staring down separatism and terrorism.

When you examine the elder Trudeau’s first majority term – and whether you respected him or not, and this writer really did – it is remarkable how much was accomplished in a relatively short period of time.
But, despite all that, Pierre Trudeau was still reduced to a minority in 1972.

His son, meanwhile, doesn’t have much to brag about, legislatively. Legalization of cannabis, and … that’s it.

History will not remember Justin Trudeau for lots of important legislative achievements, because there haven’t been any. It’s been a lot of social media sizzle, but not much policy steak.

Broken promises and voter disappointments: they’re not predicaments unknown to incumbent governments, true.
But, if there’s enough of them, they’re why those governments get defeated.

And, at this point, Justin Trudeau isn’t known for any achievements at all. He’s known for being a racist, and wearing blackface.

Pierre Trudeau wasn’t defeated in 1972. But, despite a lot of legislative achievements, he almost was. He, the Northern Magus, lost his Parliamentary majority to the efforts of Bob Stanfield – who, like Andrew Scheer, was regularly mocked and maligned.

“Choose Forward” strongly implies that what preceded it wasn’t all that great. In Justin Trudeau’s case, he wants us to think of mean old Stephen Harper when we think about that past.

But what if voters start thinking about the more-recent past – and what, if anything, Justin Trudeau has achieved?

He hasn’t achieved much. There’s a reason why Justin Trudeau is less popular than Donald Trump, you know.

The land is strong? When compared to something like “choose forward,” the 1972 Liberal campaign slogan is practically a detailed 100-page policy platform.

Canadians are going to “choose,” alright.

Based upon his paltry, puny legislative record – based on his racist blackface stunts – Justin Trudeau may deeply regret asking Canadians to do so.


And vote!

For all of you who have written to me, depressed and dispirited about the choices in this awful election, don’t forget we have amazing, decent, courageous and principled people like Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott. Don’t give up hope. Be independent.




Exclusive to Daisy Data™️: Campaign Research on why Trudeau is losing Ontario



CPC not only has a lead in Ontario, but also has significant advantages with their committed base of support compared to the LPC

Campaign Research has conducted an public opinion poll with 1030 adults that are eligible to vote in Ontario. This poll was conducted between September the 18th and 19th, 2019, using online surveys. Our release yesterday shows how the parties stack up. You can see those detailed results here: https://tinyurl.com/yxq9c27d

The “Voter Gap Analysis” gives us more insight into the commitment level of voters to each party, relative to one another.

This analysis clearly lays out what the “floors” and “ceilings” are, with respect to potential votes available to each party and it also allows us to look closer at each party’s “hard” and “soft” supporters (floors and ceilings).

As of today, the CPC and the LPC have a “vote ceiling” of 40% in Ontario. 32% of voters would consider voting for the NDP, while 31% would consider the GPC. The PPC has 2% committed and a ceiling of 10%.

Note that the CPC had 22% of their voters as “hard supporters” also referred to as the “floor”. These voters claim to be voting for the CPC and not considering any other party. The LPC had 14% of their voters as “hard supporters”, which are voting for the LPC and not considering any other party. This is also a good indicator that the CPC vote will turnout in significantly higher numbers.

The “light blue” category represents voters who claim that they will vote for that specific party but that they are also considering voting for another party and are not totally closed to switching their vote(s). You can see that half of the committed LPC vote is considering voting for another party while only 1/3rd of the CPC is considering another party.

The “green” category represents voters who claim to be Undecided as to who they will vote for but are exclusively considering only one party and the “pink” category represents voters who claim to be voting for another party but also claim to be the considering that specific party.

“The really big news coming out of the Voter Gap Analysis is not that the CPC is ahead of the LPC by 4% in Ontario. No, the big news is that the CPC vote floor is significantly higher than the LPC and that half of LPC voters in Ontario are considering another party (only 1/3rd of CPC is considering another party). This is very bad news for the LPC in vote-rich/riding-rich Ontario”, said Nick Kouvalis, Principal at Campaign Research Inc. Nick can be reached at 519-791-9663.

METHODOLOGY

This online study was conducted by Campaign Research as part of its monthly omnibus study between Sept 18th and 19th, 2019, through an online survey of 1,030 randomly selected Ontario adults who are members of Maru/Blue’s online panel,Maru Voice Canada, and were provided with various incentives to respond. The panelists were selected to reflect Canada’s age, gender and regional distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size has an estimated margin of error (which measures sampling variability) of +/- 3.05%, 19 times out of 20.

The results have been weighted by education, age, gender, and region (and in Quebec, language) to match the population according to 2016 Census data. Certain areas or groups may be oversampled but have been weighted to reflect their proportion of Canada’s population. This is to ensure the sample is representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study:

“Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?”

*** Note that there are 490 Males and 541 Females that answered the gender question, which totals a sample of 1031. But 1 person did not complete the study and that is why we show a total sample of 1030.


The Liar In Chief

Late night drinks with Faith Goldy, multiple racist blackface incidents, groping reporters: seeing how the #LPC war room is responding, it’s evident to me that Justin Trudeau has been lying/covering up with his own people. I sort of feel badly for them.

Sort of.




BREAKING: confidential LPC talking points on blackface scandal leaked

#LPC TALKING POINTS ON PRIME MINISTER BLACKFACE

  • He comes from privilege. He’s rich. Rich people get to play by different rules.
  • It happened long ago. Want to see our Scheer video from a decade ago?
  • All of us have done something egregiously racist when we were kids. You know, at the age of 30.
  • Judge Justin by his record on opposing racism in Canada,even though racism is the worst it’s been in several decades.
  • Justin may have bought her drinks in a bar one night,but Andrew Scheer rode an elevator with Faith Goldy once.
  • Case by case, intersectionality, deeply sorry, blab blah blah.