WINNERS: The NDP. Old political hacks call it "the stench of death." You can get a whiff of it when you come in to a campaign office that's losing, or a candidate who is getting clobbered. Once you get it, the stench of death is hard to shake off. In this campaign, no one has been afflicted by it yet. They've all been up and down - but the NDP, mainly, has been up; the Dippers are experiencing the sweet perfume of victory. Notwithstanding a few nutty candidates at the outset, Jack Layton has turned in a solid performance, and his party has been better-organized and better-funded than ever before. The odds of them becoming the Official Opposition are very long, but they will certainly improve on their 2006 election result.
LOSER: The economy. If anyone can tell me what any of the political parties have planned for the rocky economic road that lies ahead, please email me, because I don't have a clue if they have a clue. The Tories say the fundamentals are strong; the Grits want to have meetings; the Dippers want to have a summit; the Bloc wants out. I'm not so naive as to believe that any single political party, in any particular country, has a way out of our current predicament. But it wouldn't hurt to give the rest of us a couple of good ideas, would it? Would it?
LOSER: You-know-who. As I recall, he also said he'd win 200+ seats, he'd get rid of the "democratic deficit," he'd preside over what Jim Travesty famously called a "fire of ideas," and he'd ensure every little girl had a pony, "come Hell or high water." Uh-huh. Here's another prediction: his autobiography will sell even fewer copies than Brian Mulroney's. And that's saying something.
WINNERS: Former aides living in exile! Welcome to the truth-telling club, Brodie - Spector and, um, me, welcome you! Because you are right - the modern Conservative Party is suburban, but not yet (and maybe not ever) urban. Can you form a government without Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver? For sure. Can you form a majority government? Nope.
WINNER:...of the battle for second place? To be determined. But the battle is on, in earnest. As noted above and many times, I do not see the NDP becoming the Official Opposition - their vote, like the Tory vote, is smaller and motivated. But, like the Tory vote, the NDP vote tends to be concentrated in traditional strongholds. For them, wins like Outremont are the exception, and never the rule. Again, however, they've run a hell of a campaign, and deserve lotsa credit.