This is now:

In recent days, speculation on the left side of the spectrum has focused on a potential reversal by Mr. Miller or a late entry by Councillor Adam Vaughan; both declined to comment yesterday.

If Mr. Miller did enter the race, Ipsos pollster John Wright said, he would likely gain support at the expense of George Smitherman and, in some suburban areas, Mr. Ford.

“It appears that a lot of people would rather have what they know than what they don’t,” Mr. Wright said.

And this was then:

“[Running for a third term] would not have allowed me to be there for [my family] in the way that they deserve.”

Any of you smart spinners out there know how David Miller could successfully execute the flip-flop he’s clearly (and understandably) contemplating?

UPDATE: One of Miller’s inner circle contacted me and advises that a flip-flop on his intentions “ain’t going to happen.”  So there you go.

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• Cauchon signs up? The former Chretien cabinet minister – who I have always believed would one day make an amazing Prime Minister – has apparently signed on to be the top Quebec guy for Iggy.  If true, it’s a clever move by the Liberal leader.  Cauchon’s got smarts to spare, and few know the Quebec scene like he does.
• Bevilacqua to run? The loss of Maurizio Bevilacqua will be a big blow to the federal Liberal caucus (as would the rumoured departure of my other friend, Denis Coderre) – big. If he goes for the mayor’s chair in Vaughan, he’d be hard to beat – as would Julian Fantino, who would be running under the Conservative banner to replace Maurizio in Parliament, and who Grits like me admire and like.
• Rocco running last? If he truly is – and, as I recall, John Tory was at about three per cent for much of the pre-Fall period during the 2003 mayoralty campaign, and then went on to nearly win –  then signing up my friend Bernie Morton was the way to go (and so too keeping on Sachin Aggarwal as policy chief).  Bernie is a campaign manager from the Don Guy/John Rae school – quiet, calm and strategic, and the sort of person you want to have in your corner when the going gets tough.
• Tea Party North? Yesterday’s Ipsos had TeeDot’s chattering classes in a tizzy: Rob Ford can’t be stopped! He’s scary!  I’m moving to Vaughan, where Bevilacqua will be mayor! Everyone calm down: Ford ain’t mayor yet.  As my brilliant Ipsos chum John Wright would doubtlessly point out, voters are skeptical about scandal stuff – they’ve seen too much of it alleged over the years.  What matters, instead, are the impressions that voters form of a candidate over a longer period of time – not a day or two of bad ink.
• “The kiss of death?” Oh, spare me.  If Ford thinks his candidacy is assisted by his mouthpiece crapping on the biggest Liberal machine in Canada, he’s a lot dumber than I thought.  McGuinty [full disclosure: whose caucus I’ve given comms advice] work with whomever becomes mayor – that’s the kind of guy he is.  Ford, meanwhile, is telling the many, many Torontonians who vote Liberal that he won’t represent their interests – and that he’ll bite the hand he needs to feed his city.  Not a good way to grow your base, Rush Ford.
• Harper’s nightmare? If they’re serious about mounting an intense and unrelenting public advocacy campaign, Canada’s police chiefs represent a formidable force – and they are a force that could derail the Reformatory/NDP plan to scrap the long gun registry.  Can you imagine the next campaign, with local police chiefs standing up at all-candidates’ meetings to denounce the Tory/NDP’s unholy alliance, and their willingness to make Canada a lot less safer?  Wow.  That would be something to see.  And that is a campaign I’d volunteer to work on.

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This is very sad.

I’m heading over to U of T in a few minutes to give a speech to the History, Memory and Politics conference – about the need to continue to be vigilant about organized racism and anti-Semitism. I may mention Anne Frank’s tree, too.

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Roxy Roller, Canada’s most political puppy, answers the burning questions of the day. (And sorry about the whiteout at the start – not sure what happened there.)

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I’m back from Buffalo – and I got an unlocked iPhone 4! Woooot!

Problem: I can’t switch my Rogers iPhone 3GS SIM card to the shiny new unlocked iPhone 4 – the latter uses a “micro” SIM card, whilst the former doesn’t. Apparently all the iPads (inexplicably) use the micro SIM card, too.

Anyway: anyone got a quick solution? A copy of The War Room shall be yours if it works!

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After saying I wouldn’t – after making a big deal about the fact that I wouldn’t – I am in Buffalo, searching vainly for an iPhone 4.

I am pathetic. Comments are open.

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Despite the bullshit pinging around in the far-right blogosweird, the fact is that my friend Richard Warman beat Ezra Levant in court this week.

Levant in fact lost his motion outright.  Warman obtained an order that Levant has to pay for an independent expert to review a few search terms on Richard’s computer.

All of Ezra’s 15 other production requests were denied and the court said he was on “a fishing expedition.” That’s a quote.  And Richard had already agreed to have an expert review the computer, because he has nothing to hide.

Some “win,” Ezra.

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Looking for deets on this far-right stalker (it’s been that kind of week – clowns to the far left of me, clowns to the far right, etc.).  Real name: Borys Demchuk, in Calgary.

Anyone who can help shall be richly rewarded, please and thank you, at wkinsella@hotmail.com.

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From last night’s Global National, link here.

“Rob Ford has an interesting effect on political perception. For example, he makes Sarah Palin seem like a Nobel Prize laureate.”

Oh, and this. My God, I love this.  From yetsterday’s Tim Hudak scrum:   “I think we’ve seen Rob Ford vault to the lead more than any other candidate because he seems to be speaking out for families in Toronto who have paid more and more in taxes but have seen less in return.”

Write your favourite caption in comments!

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“Hurry up! Hurry up! Man oh man, do I ever have the munchies.”

“Mayoral frontrunner Rob Ford told reporters Thursday, about a guilty plea for failing to provide a breath sample in Florida 11 years ago.

The Etobicoke councillor said he did 50 hours of community service and paid a fine.

Mr. Ford revealed the Valentine’s Day, 1999, incident at a news conference after a local newspaper reported that he had been caught with a marijuana joint in his back pocket the same night.”

And:

“He has been charged four times in three separate incidents: Once when he was 18, after a hockey fight, once when in 2008 for assault against his wife Renata, and two charges in the Florida incident.”

And:

“Ford initially denied knowing about the drug charge when confronted by a reporter on Wednesday, then admitted to it without mentioning the driving under the influence charge, for which he was convicted.”

No one is saying he’s a drunk-driving, drug-using hypocrite who beats up on people who are smaller than him.  No one.

But, sooner or later, someone will, I suspect.

Rob Ford Arrest Report

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