As she contemplates The End, Danielle Smith should give Peter MacKay a call. He might tell her what happens to your political career when you let the other guy dictate the terms of surrender.
…is the one you’ll see between Stephen Harper and Thomas Mulcair, agreeing that there should be as many leadership debates as possible. And you know why.
Story by iPolitics on that, and other stuff, here.
…and, on this day of pure evil, here is a partial list of those who said we should negotiate with the Taliban, and the one entity who said we shouldn’t. Feel free to add to the lists in comments.
Negotiate with the Taliban:
- The New Democratic Party
- Barack Obama
- Thomas Mulcair
- Canadian Council of Churches
- Adam Radwanski, Globe
- Tom Walkom, Star
- Too many Canadians
Don’t negotiate with the Taliban:
For we Westerners, few things are as frustrating as awaiting the results on election night.
In years past, it’s been infuriating, watching the TV meat puppets declare a winner before polls have even closed past the Lakehead.
In 2015, unfortunately, that’s unlikely to change.
Individual polls lie, these days. But many surveys, taken over many months, give us some reliable insight into election night outcomes – region by region.
ATLANTIC: Liberal leader Justin Trudeau owns Atlantic Canada. Here, Trudeau is the man to beat, and he is going to be tough to beat. In the half-dozen polls that have been conducted in the Atlantic in recent weeks, in fact, Trudeau has registered support in excess of 50 per cent. Stephen Harper’s Conservatives can lay claim to only half that amount – while the New Democrats are favoured by about one-in-five.
This is no flash in the pan: Trudeau’s Grits have been registering big levels of support for months, and can reasonably expect to take the region in 2015. It’s worth recalling, however, that John Turner did likewise in 1988, winning far more of the Atlantic popular vote than Brian Mulroney. And Mulroney still went on to capture a huge Parliamentary majority.
QUEBEC: As always, there are two Quebecs: the one that is the Island of Montreal, and the one that isn’t. On the former, Trudeau again dominates.
The greater Montreal area is home to the majority of the province’s non-francophones, and it is here that Trudeau enjoys extraordinary levels of support. In Montreal, up to 75 per cent of the electorate have signaled their intention to vote for the youthful Liberal leader. The Liberals outpace the New Democrats two-to-one in Montreal, and enjoy a hefty three-to-one advantage over the Conservatives.
Off the island, it’s a different story. Polling firms such as CROP, Angus Reid and Leger have all lately declared the NDP more popular than the Grits among francophones, and in the rest of Quebec. Similarly, these voters see New Democrat leader Thomas Mulcair as the best choice for Prime Minister. If the NDP runs a strong campaign in Quebec, Mulcair could easily emerge with about as many seats in la belle province as Trudeau – about 35 – with Harper taking less than ten.
THE WEST: As with previous Liberal leaders, Trudeau has repeatedly signaled his desire to win many more seats in the West. As with previous Liberal leaders, however, he’s unlikely to do so.
Unlike 2011, Manitoba is now more receptive to the Liberal Party, but pollsters like Ipsos suggest that the Conservatives still maintain a double-digit lead there. Elsewhere – specifically in Alberta and Saskatchewan – a synthesis of polling results show the Conservatives with an even greater lead. Historically, Alberta and Saskatchewan have been the Tory heartland, and that’s not going to change now. Only in B.C. is an across-the-board race underway, with all three national parties in a tight three-way fight.
ONTARIO: There’s a reason why we skipped over Ontario. As in 2011, it’s where the 2015 election outcome is going to be decided.
That’s why Stephen Harper has lately been spending more time – and spending more of your money – in Ontario. It’s paying dividends, too: outside Toronto, Trudeau’s Liberals have been declining in recent weeks, and Harper’s Conservatives have been trending up. Toronto itself is indisputably Fortress Liberal – but outside Toronto, in the suburbs and beyond, Harper is favoured.
In 2011, the Harper Conservatives won their majority in Ontario, taking an astonishing 73 seats. As things stand now, they’re unlikely to repeat that feat – but seat projections taken from a massive and recent Ipsos poll, for instance, suggest Harper will still win more Ontario seats than Trudeau or Mulcair.
It could be Spring election, or a Fall election. It could be a majority or a minority government.
But one thing’s for sure:
Westerners will be frustrated by it all, yet again.
Looking for an experienced and bonded cleaning person – for a small firm and some residential stuff, too. Between Midtown and East End. Got any recommendations?
Why? Because iPhones don’t have physical keyboards, and they suck if you have to type more than a few words, that’s why.
I had the very first Blackberry, in 2000. Along with Bruce Hartley, I was one of the first to have a Blackberry on that Chrétien campaign, in fact. Bruce and I were the cool kids.
Since then, I have written thousands of posts to this web site using a Blackberry – along with hundreds of columns, and (just this year) an entire book.
I didn’t use an iPhone to do any of those things. I use an iPhone to make calls, listen to music, take pictures, schedule stuff or calculate figures. I don’t use it to write. And why don’t I write on it? Simple.
Because it doesn’t have a keyboard that works, that’s why.
So, I read this great Sean Silcoff story – who is, full disclosure, one of my best students from back when I taught at Carleton’s School of Journalism – with great interest, nodding my head all the way through. Like many of the folks in Sean’s story, I didn’t ever get any of the newer Blackberry models. They were Blackberries trying to be iPhones.
I stuck with the 9900, on which I’m writing right now. I have a second one in my bedside table, as a backup. I’ve hoarded it, in case Blackberry never came to its senses.
It did! The arrival of the Blackberry Classic is a huge deal for guys like me. It’s back to doing what Blackberry always did best – a physical keyboard, with a logical operating system. IT’S WHAT I WANT FOR CHRISTMAS, LISA.
And, looking back on what I’ve just written, I can only imagine the atrocities that an iPhone would make of it. It wouldn’t be pretty, baby.
All I can say is this: Go Mr. Chen, go!
Who are the anonymous “insiders” who told a reporter that people are being barred from being Liberal candidates because of who their friends are?
No, we are not making this up. From the Winnipeg Free Press, this afternoon:
“Insiders also say Dinsdale was not high on the list of preferred candidates for a number of reasons, including that…there are concerns about his close friendship with columnist and former Liberal staffer Warren Kinsella.”
I don’t believe Mia Rabson would ever make something like this up. So who are these McCarthyite “insiders,” pray tell?
St. Fido surveys his congregation.
It isn’t a hoax – the linkage is here – but it raises an interesting question, one my kids and I often debate: if animals have souls, should we be eating them?
I open this one up for comment by all and sundry. And if your cat wishes to weigh in on the holiness of dogs, by all means let him/her walk all over your keyboard.
Sorry. But I’m a Liberal.
I am, I am. I’ve occasionally been mad at the party, over the years, and I haven’t been wild about some of the people running it, either. But when all is said and done, I’m a Liberal.
I was rummaging through a drawer recently, and found proof: a “Warren Kinsella Liberal” button from when I was the federal Grit candidate in North Vancouver in 1997. I lost that one, decisively, but it was an honour to run. I loved it.
A few weeks ago, the irrepressible, indefatigable Dennis Mills approached me to suggest I seek the Liberal nomination in Toronto Danforth, the riding he held for many years. I’ve lived on the border of the riding for almost as many years.
I didn’t think it was a good idea. I’m too independent, I told my Grit friends Dennis Mills and Catherine Davey. I’m a writer, and – while a Liberal and a liberal – I haven’t ever hesitated to criticize my party when it deserved it. I’m a contrarian, I told him. I’m incapable of being deferential to authority – ie., I’ve never been good at kissing powerful behinds.
But Dennis kept talking to me about it. I started to think about it.
I heard from people. Two former Prime Ministers told me I should do it. Two Ontario Premiers – one sitting, one former – encouraged me to give it a shot. Lots of former cabinet ministers and MPs and Grits were similarly enthusiastic.
But the folks around Justin Trudeau weren’t enthusiastic. They were against it, in fact.
A senior Trudeau advisor told me why. My writings over the years, here and elsewhere, had been too critical of Team Trudeau. They didn’t like that.
That wasn’t all. Trudeau’s circle is now dominated by folks who tried to drive out my friend Jean Chretien a decade ago. They, too, were unenthusiastic.
Thereafter, I started to hear from many Grits that the party’s mysterious “Green Light” process – wherein the suitability of potential candidates is assessed – would be used to deny me an opportunity to run. Some pretext would be found.
All that said, let me also say this:
I agree with Trudeau’s gang. I shouldn’t run under their banner – but not for the reasons they cite.
I am, indeed, a contrarian. When you are a writer, that’s your job: to tilt at windmills. To try and tell the truth to power.
If Team Trudeau wants people who are in lockstep with them on every issue, every single day, I’m not the guy they want.
There are other reasons why I won’t run. Like Bob Rae, Lloyd Axworthy, Romeo Dallaire and several million voters, I disagree with Trudeau on the international effort against ISIS. When genocide is happening, indolence is complicity.
Ironically, I agree with Trudeau’s position on abortion: I think it should be safe, legal and rare. But I don’t like how Trudeau arrived at his position: political parties shouldn’t dictate intensely personal matters of conscience to Members of Parliament.
I also agree with him on the need to have more women in Parliament. And if I have to stand down to ensure women have an equal voice in Parliament, I will do so.
There are other reasons, of course. I’ve got kids who are still young. I’ve got a business to run. I’ve got a book coming out. I’m getting hitched to the most amazing woman. And so on.
Mostly, however, it’s not a good fit. The Trudeau guys aren’t enthusiastic about dissenters. And I’m a dissenter.
Will I give it a shot in the future? Maybe.
And do I still hope Trudeau wins? I do, I do. It’s time for a change. I like his energy and his positive attitude. Canada needs that, in Toronto Danforth and elsewhere.
In the meantime, however, Sun readers are stuck with me.