Brad Lavigne looked stumped, for a moment or two.

Lavigne — the brilliant Jack Layton loyalist who helped pilot the New Democratic Party to its historic gains in the election of one year ago — seemed uncertain, however briefly, about what his answer should be.

In an exchange with Tim Powers — the much-liked Conservative Party pundit — Lavigne had been asked about when Stephen Harper’s war room intended to start attacking newly minted NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair.

Lavigne eyed Powers warily. The two political strategists were on a stage at the Ottawa Congress Centre for the annual gathering of Canadian realtors. Finally, Lavigne allowed that he did not know, exactly, when the ruthless Conservative attack machine would strike. “But it’s coming,” Lavigne said. “It’s coming.”

Indeed it is. But when? And, more significantly, why hasn’t it happened already?
The questions aren’t irrelevant.

Comments (29)

Sent by reader Scott, spotted in NYT on Sunday. He and I found this weird. You?

Comments (20)

The Alberta result should remind us all that is foolhardy to read too much into polls, and particularly one poll.  But this depressing result is consistent with a batch of other recent surveys – that the contest is now between the Conservatives and the New Democrats, federally.  And that the once-mighty Liberals don’t factor. At all.

What can we do?  Well, a bunch of things.  I spoke before the annual gathering of Canadian realtors in Ottawa, this morning, and suggested in response to a question that the Liberals’ problems aren’t just about leadership.  The problems are myriad: membership, fundraising, policy, organization, readiness, you name it.

But – without even having seen this poll – I made one other point: Bob Rae has been the leader during the entire period when we languished in third place.  Even against a lightweight like Nicole Turmel, Rae couldn’t make us competitive.

To me, Bob Rae is the wrong choice.  He’s the wrong choice because of his tenure as NDP Premier of Ontario.  And he’s the wrong choice because of his term as interim leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, too.

 

Comments (28)

Chretien legend Randy McCauley, Clinton legend Paul Begala, and legendary failure Whatsisname.

Comments (8)

Here it is – the official cover to the new book, out in September! Plan to share it with some DNC and former Chretien folks at a dinner tonight, here in Ottawa. The U.S. cover, I’m told, will be different.

Link to pre-order is under the image, or on the banner to the right. No pun intended.

Comments (32)

Ever voted for more than one political party? Never purchased a party membership card? Ever refused to vote, after having come to the conclusion that “none of the above” is the best choice? Have “conservative” views on some issues, and decidedly “progressive” views on others?

If you answered yes to those questions, congratulations: You are part of the majority. You are part of the biggest political demographic there is — the independent voter.
In the U.S., independent voters have held sway for years. The Democrats and Republicans can generally count on their own partisans to come out and vote. But to win, they need to capture the support of the millions of Americans who call themselves “independent,” and who make up the largest and fastest-growing segment of the U.S. electorate.

In Canada, it hasn’t always been that way, but it’s changing. In recent days, a series of polls have been released showing many Canadian voters turning away from the traditional two-party alignment of Conservatives and Liberals, and indicating support for New Democrats. A Harris-Decima poll published late last week showed the NDP is now favoured by 34% of voters, to 30% for the Cons, and the Libs’ 20%. More than 2,000 Canadians were polled near the end of April by Harris-Decima. Their numbers closely reflect those published by Ipsos, Forum Research, Leger and CROP.

Comments (13)

Some of us suggested the Harper Reformatories would come to profoundly regret messing with Canadian seniors. Dance with those that brung ya, etc. Looks to be happening.

I’ve never been a fan of CARP – they became rent-a-grassroots-lobby, a few years back – but this seems consistent with gen pop data now kicking around. Governments defeat themselves, someone once said, and someone was of course correct.

Comments (9)

…they’re playing the Phoenix in August. Want to see them, a lot. But you know what, Ticketmaster? I WON’T PAY MORE THAN SIXTY BUCKS A TICKET AND IT IS A DISGRACE THAT YOU GUYS ARE CHARGING THAT MUCH.

There. That feels better. Put it on a loop, add tons of distortion and echo, and it’ll be as good as being there.

Comments (11)

I am a war room guy, and I look at the world through a war roomer’s eyes.  That’s why, for instance, I favour total warfare against political enemies (i.e.. always making sure the response is lightning-quick, using every means at your disposal, and twice as painful as the initial strike).  It’s why, for example, I look at Bob Rae with a war room guy’s perspective (i.e.., his tenure as NDP Premier of Ontario is too much of a disaster to erase from the public record, and he is therefore a wholly unsuitable candidate for Liberal leader).

Which brings us to the Democrats’ moves this week.  I was communicating with one of their top guys in D.C. yesterday, and they’ll never admit what I strongly suspect was the play this week.  But here’s what I observed, in Hegelian terms:

Thesis:  Obama announces on Wednesday afternoon, after an agonizing delay, that he now favours same sex marriage.  For a guy seeking re-election in a very conservative nation, that statement is not without considerable risk.  The story is everywhere.

Antithesis:  On Thursday morning, just hours after Obama’s statement – which the Dems knew the G.O.P. and their putative presidential nominee, Mitt Romney, were certain to denounce – a story appears in the Washington Post, detailing how a younger Mitt Romney was a vicious, gay-hating bully.  He led an attack on a student he believed was gay, hacking off his hair with a pair of scissors.  He used anti-gay slurs. The story goes viral.

Synthesis:  Obama is high road; Romney looks like a creep. Americans are much less indifferent to equal marriage than Canadians.  There, public opinion is split.  My hunch is that Obama decided when and how to make his historic statement – but he also turned to his Democratic war room team, to ensure that the gay-hating Romney stuff came out in the same news cycle.

Their calculation had to have been this: not every American favours gay marriage.  But most Americans oppose terrorizing, and bullying, gays.  The takeaway would have been: You may not like gay marriage.  But you dislike what Romney did even more.

On-point, swift and deadly: that’s good war room work.  And they’ll never admit they were behind it, which is also what a good war room does.

Comments (33)