So, er, what happened? Lots of big changes of course/plan in the past 24 hours for a lot of folks, me included. Here’s a summary, which may leave you as bewildered as I tend to be most days.
Kinsella Kolumn Killed: If you are one of the two or three people who read it, you will notice that my usual Tuesday Sun column ain’t there. Why isn’t, you ask? Beats me, says I. I filed it, my editor got it, and the rest is a mystery. My suspicion is that the launch of the new Sun TV network, the launch of the new Sun web site, and the paper redesign all had something to do that. That, or I’ve been canned, and no one’s told me yet. Here’s a snippet of it, in the unlikely event you are curious about the subject matter: “Stephen Harper’s Reformatories, you see, are heading to victory on May 2. And, barring some big upset in the next few days, it may be a big victory, too. Now, it’s not like that the Conservative leader deserves a majority, let alone re-election. He’s run up a historically-big deficit, he’s run a lousy campaign, and he’s run his promise to clean up government straight into the ditch – with so many ethical lapses taking place, you need a program to keep track. (My personal favourite? He fires Helena Guergis for cavorting with hookers, when she didn’t – and he then gives a big patronage job to convicted fraud artist Bruce Carson. Who, er, brought a real hooker to a party at 24 Sussex.) So if I’m right, and Harper’s done such a crummy job, why is he cruising to victory? Mainly, it’s because those of us on the Left have done a lousier job.”
Sun TV rises: Speaking of the TV thing, I wasn’t on the launch show yesterday, either. I will be on there tomorrow, I think, perhaps as an out-of-work columnist. Some of the commentary on the new network is here and here. I watched a bit of the launch with my staff, and I can tell you the following: (i) I will not be wearing a short skirt, unless you want to pay me scads of money, in which case I will; (ii) I like free speech, too, but you won’t see me yelling “fire” in a crowded Sun TV studio anytime soon; (iii) I have noticed that “political correctness” is usually code for “I want to say whatever pops into my head without getting sued/fired;” and (iv) “Controversy,” is my middle name, so I should fit right in, however much I am a Bolshevik when compared to the rest of the gang.
Poll changes: Sort of. You Daily Nanos Crack™ suggests that the Liberal-Conservative gap remains what it has been for weeks (about 8 or 9 points), and that the NDP’s national support is still about half the Liberals’ (30 to 17, respectively). So one thing hasn’t yet changed – vindication for those of us who were predicting this election will get us more or less what we had when Parliament dissolved: a minority Tory government.
The start to the second-to-final campaign week! And for the Tories (sort of) and the Grits (in particular) things are not so great. In yesterday’s Sun, I tried to address why some voters are making Stephen Harper unhappy (because they’re afraid what he’ll do with a majority), and in tomorrow’s paper, I will try to address why some voters are making Michael Ignateiff unhappy (because they’re uneasy that he chose to render the LPC a paler shade of Harper on some key issues). Thus, this morning’s stunner Angus Reid poll.
Touched a nerve! Wow – my column in yesterday’s aforementioned column in the Sun got nearly 300 comments here, and nearly 200 over on the Sun web site. Conservatives were enraged that I would suggest that Harper and Co. would go after guns, abortion and gays – and many were positively delighted, saying that that’s the kind of Canada they wanted. One Toronto-area Liberal campaign emailed me to say that they were hearing about the column at the doors – people were concerned about what a Harper majority would do to Canada. Meanwhile, a couple assholes make snarky remarks about my religion, so I told them to piss off and blocked them. Not bad for a Sunday!
Most ridiculous column of the week: Seen here. It’s so dumb, it’s hard to know where to begin.
Fill ‘er up: My newspaper has an editorial, here, about the only issue that all the Real People I know are talking about: the price of gas. On this one, Harper can be whacked by Messrs. Ignatieff and Layton – because he’s seen as the shill for greedy oil multinationals. Will they go after Harper today? We shall see. They should.
Video of the campaign! Check out this spot by my Lib pal Bob Richardson – it’s the toughest (and most effective) sot of the campaign so far:
Will he get one? I don’t know, and neither does he. But is he close to one? Yes, yes he is. Therefore, I figured I’d use my spot in the Sun to (a) speculate as to why that happened and (b) what policies we are likely to see if it does. Typically, I do those two things in reverse. Today, I predict what a Harper majority will do, by looking at past Conservative behaviour. On Tuesday – the start of the new-look Sun, its new network, and its new web site – I suggest a few reasons why he has been winning Election 2011. Conservatives won’t like today’s column; Liberals (some of them, anyway) won’t like Tuesday’s. Here’s all of today’s.
It’s wet and cold and gloomy around here this morning….Which should match the mood of some Liberal partisans (and some Conservatives). Personally, I’m ticked off that the ice is still on the lake, so we can’t get to the cabin to open it up (although we could walk, I suppose). My sons probably aren’t so unhappy – video shooter games of the type favoured by Stephen Harper were invented for days like today. So it’s a miserable, lousy day. Particularly politically. Here’s why.
The NDP is surging: You’ll notice, in Your Daily Nanos Crack™, that Stephen Harper isn’t doing particularly well, either – he’s been stalled for days. Why aren’t the Ignatieff Liberals celebrating about that? Because they’re facing a potential disaster – an NDP that’s been surging, big time, since Jack Layton’s much-lauded performance in both TV debates. If the Dippers don’t slide back to where they have been over the past few weeks and months, Liberal candidates will fall in squeeze plays. In this way, Ignatieff can say – and he should be saying it more – that a vote for Jack gets you Stephen. And with that, goodbye abortion, equal marriage, gun control and health care as we’ve known it.
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