KCCCC Day 10: when the lousier campaign is still ahead


  • And so begins Week Two, sort of: Right about now, 600,000 or so Canadians, from coast to coast, are receiving copies of the Metro free paper give-away, wrapped in a pithy and sunny description of the Liberal platform.  In Halifax, Dartmouth ferry commuters are being handed the paper by Michael Ignatieff – elsewhere, members of his caucus.  It’s a brilliant tactic by my pal Bob Richardson.  And I write about that, and other stuff, in tomorrow’s Sun.
  • Poll palaver: Here’s the latest: “The Conservatives have opened up a 14-point lead over the Liberals, according to a Nanos daily tracking poll, and start the second full week of the election campaign sitting firmly above the 40-per-cent mark – the kind of support that typically leads to a majority government.” That’s Ipsos-sized, but here’s the point I always make about these horseracey polls during campaigns: the job of a campaign isn’t to analyze polls, or even read them; the role of a campaign is to change the polls. The Reformatories, IMHO, are running a complacent, arrogant campaign, one that doesn’t build support; the Liberals are running an edgy campaign that seeks to attract attention and expand their base.  Am I right?  Am I wrong?
  • Lobby this: Registered lobbyists – you know, dastardly people like the Salvation Army, United Church and a plethora of environmentalists and farmers – are being told they aren’t allowed to work on this, or any, election campaign.  My expert analysis: that’s STUPID. I spoke to this Hill Times reporter, and told her that it is absurd that folks who lobby are being denied democratic participation. What do you think?
  • The Conservatives seem to think their own rules are stupid, too:  Check this out – my friend Ken Boessenkool is in the Con war room, anyway – see here. Ken’s played a key war room role in every Harper campaign, and would be influential were he in the war room or not.  It’s a dumb Harper-era rule, and one that will only trip up Harperites.  Joe and Jane Frontporch don’t give a crap about insider stuff like this.
  • Rumour du jour: I’m hearing Iggy is in a good mood, assisted in that regard by his spouse.  Harper, meanwhile, is apparently quite unhappy about his campaign team so far (and he should be) and is dropping the F-bomb far and wide.  Who’s got dish?
  • Harper’s a chicken, part ad infinitum: Rick Mercer, he of Doris Day fame, isn’t letting it go. Neither should the Liberals.  Repeat over and over: “I’m not afraid to debate Stephen Harper about [FILL IN BLANK].  He’s afraid, however.  He challenged me to a one-on-one debate, I immediately said yes, and then he chickened out.” Everywhere Iggy goes, everytime he gets asked about something, say that.  And travel with an empty chair with Harper’s name on it.  It’s a useful visual reminder, too.
  • Best war room so far? The Libs, led by my former colleagues Kevin Bosch, Ben Parsons, Brian Clow and others.  These guys are very dedicated, and lethal in the extreme.  As I pointed out in this morning’s Hill Times, they’ve stomped all over the Tory message machine, just about every day. That’s how a war room wins.
  • Where’s that bus? By the time you read this, Tony Philips is somewhere under that big Reformatory bus, the one used to flatten countless Conservative political staffers.  Unbeknownst to many, Philips is from Belleville, and was a LIBERAL who worked on the 2004 candidates’ campaign, and was even on the executive there.  He was one of those super-ambitious Young Liberals who wanted to make a name for himself. ( I guess he now has.) He became a Conservative in 2007-2008 after he moved to Ottawa, and had been unsuccessful getting a job in a Liberal office.
  • Pic of the day: From the weekend.  Kennedy analyzes it, here.  Caption contest!

“Listen, you little delinquent, do you want a friggin’ doughnut or not?  I don’t have time to stand here for this facile agitprop bullshit all day.”


KCCCC Day 9: Platform, platform, who’s got the platform?


  • It’s Sunday, so KCCCC should be taking a day of rest.  But we won’t!  If Iggy is up, working to unveil his platform, then we work, too!  After Mass.
  • So, um, about that platform: As in comedy, platform timing is everything.  Mike Harris released his Common Sense one more than a year before the writ – and he won a big majority.  Jean Chretien released his Red Book at the start of the campaign – and he won a massive majority.  Stephen Harper didn’t really release one at all, last time, and he won anyway.  So what to do?  The Grits, clearly, want to press the advantage they’ve been building up in Week One: they’re releasing theirs today, with a focus on families. Will it pay dividends?  I think so: if nothing else, platforms provide a useful prop for leaders under attack (and, believe me, Iggy will be facing an even more vicious Con attack, soon enough).  They can wave it around and say:  “Don’t believe the lies the other guy is saying about me.  Here’s my plan.  Read it for yourself.”  Mostly, it tells voters that you’ve prepared for government, and you’re ready.
  • Media roundup: Even longtime Harper cheerleaders are saying the Reformatory boss isn’t doing so well.  Lorne Gunter: “Mr. Harper and his party stumbled on the week’s two big issues -who should participate in the leaders’ debate and the threat of a post-election coalition among the Liberals, NDP and Bloc Quebecois. They seemed unprepared for the election, despite being as eager for one as any other party (and despite having far more resources than their rivals). A party that has developed a reputation for tightly scripting its messages and for its Machiavellian manipulation of its opponents looked decidedly pedestrian as it let others define the debate issue.” John Robson: “…the Conservative party [is] nowhere near me. I [am] pro-life, seriously pro-military and against big-spending high-taxing governments. If Stephen Harper took the poll giving answers honestly drawn from the actual performance and platform of his party, he wouldn’t get that result, I can tell you.”
  • Pic of the day: From Harper’s avail this morning on the youth fitness incentive, taking place at a gym where people are working out.  This one is weirder than weird.  Caption contest!

 

 


In today’s Sun: Advantage Ignatieff

Everyone had some ups and downs. But with Week 1 now concluded, the winner is — no question — Michael Ignatieff and his Liberals.

Polls are showing that, too. The yawning, nearly 20-point divide that separated the Tories and the Grits at the campaign’s start is now gone. Harper’s fearsome election machine has stalled, while Ignatieff’s more modest equivalent is surging closer. At week’s end, reliable polls showed as little as eight percentage points separating the two main contenders.

Meanwhile, Ignatieff’s personal approval ratings, which have been in the basement for two years, are now up dramatically.

So, too, are his Twitter and Facebook fans. Liberal fundraising is up. And, at the doors, Liberal candidates tell me they are getting lots of favourable comments about Ignatieff, along with plenty of requests for campaign signs and literature. So, um, what happened?

Three things…


Wire – Heartbeat

Wire was in TeeDot at Lee’s, last night – sans Bruce Gilbert, and (incredibly) 35 years after they began.  They were, and continue to be, a huge part of my musical outlook (and are acknowledged to be influences for R.E.M., The Cure, Minor Threat, Guided By Voices, all of whom I have adored at different times, too).

I don’t know if they played ‘Heartbeat’ last night, but it’s a stand-out track off the godlike genius of Chairs Missing, and clear evidence that Wire was always unafraid to challenge conventions – even punk’s own conventions.  Alright, here it is. One, two, X you!

 

 


KCCCC Day 8: Let’s do laundry!


  • It’s a down day! Or, maybe tomorrow is.  Either way, every campaign is back in Ottawa, or heading there, so that the leaders and the planes and the tour staff can get home, hug the kids, get sleep in a familiar bed and – most crucially – do laundry.  Some, if they’re courageous, will wander in to campaign HQ to see how central campaign staff are doing.  They will look bleary-eyed and exhausted, because they are.  The war room staff will make jokes about Stockholm Syndrome (which seizes reporters travelling with the leaders, by the way, and shows up in their coverage).  And everyone will read the papers.
  • What will they see? In tomorrow’s Sun, I write this: “Stephen Harper looks like he is phoning it in.  He appears washed-out and tired.  At his much-trumpeted Montreal rally, in fact, Harper didn’t look like a political leader fighting for a win – he looked like an exhausted chartered accountant in a crowded airport, trying to get home for the weekend.” That’s some of my take.  What do others see?  Here’s a columnist sampling – add yours in comments!  I guarantee you’ll be read – the stats for www.warrenkinsella.com have exploded by 300 per cent since the campaign started, and so too have comments.  Thanks to all for your contributions – you’re all pretty smart, left, right or coalitionist.
  • Chantal Hebert, Star:“To drive his message home, Harper has been blatantly creative with the facts, starting with his own manoeuvres as an opposition leader in a minority Parliament. He has risked turning the election into a debate on his character, a huge gamble for a figure that has been shown to have a higher-than-average potential to polarize Canadians. Harper is taking that gamble based on his conviction that against a divided opposition, polarization is an ace up the Conservative sleeve.”
  • Stephen Maher, Chronicle-Herald:Harper’s team may be nervous, and if they’re not, they should be. Harper is on track to win this election, but so far the Liberals are having a better campaign, and the Conservatives could lose the government even if they win the election.”
  • Adam Radwanski, Globe and Mail:“…the Liberal Leader is surprising even his own handlers with his comfort on the campaign trail. And he shows signs of making the Conservatives pay for underestimating him, and for conditioning the public – through advertisements that portrayed Mr. Ignatieff as a bumbling dilettante – to do likewise.”
  • David Akin, Sun Media:“The Conservative war room has been obsessed, in the meantime, with penny-ante “gotcha” shots every time they think they’ve got more evidence of Ignatieff’s designs on a coalition government. OK. We get the point.  But if Conservatives really want that majority, they’ll have to do more than that to tell Canadians why they want it.”
  • David Olive, Star:“It has seemed almost farcical to hear Prime Minister Stephen Harper warn that Canada’s economic recovery would be jeopardized by a Liberal-led coalition of opposition parties taking power after the federal election May 2.”
  • Bruce Campion-Smith, Star: “A week that started strong for Harper — by putting Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff on his heels with accusations of plotting to lead an opposition coalition — ended with the Conservative leader looking unsteady on everything from debates, his dealings with the media and even his attacks around the coalition.”
  • Pic of the day: It’s fuzzy, but so is the campaign so far – nobody has landed on the narrative strikes a chord, most voters aren’t paying attention.  Add a caption!