In today’s Sun: If Ipsos is right, is it 1984 all over again?

“If Ipsos’ Thursday night bombshell is to be believed, 1984 is happening all over again.

Ipsos has long been regarded as the gold standard in the Canadian polling industry. My political consulting firm uses them and so do plenty of others, including past Liberal and Tory governments. So the numbers found in its latest survey of public opinion can’t be dismissed. Instead, nervous Grits could perhaps regard the numbers as they would, say, the words carved on the federal Liberal Party’s tombstone.

Conservatives, up to 43%. Liberals, down to 24%. NDP, unchanged at 16%.

And if you just look at voting preferences of those absolutely certain to trek to polling stations, according to Ipsos, the Cons go up to 45%, and the Grits slide to 23%.”


Sometimes, I love this city

So I leave Dwight Duncan’s terrific speech at the Toronto Board of Trade – wherein he pointed out that even part of Hudak’s tax plan will result in the closing of many hospitals and the firing of many nurses, and God knows what else – and I wave down a cab. The driver has a reggae magazine on the seat. We start talking reggae, and I tell him how I go to Jamaica every year, and that the soundtrack of my life is dub, and Burning Spear, Desmond Dekker, Junior Murvin, Prince Buster, Toots, Marley and (of course) King Tubby. He says he loves Canada, and has always felt welcome at home here.

Anyway. Was a great Toronto moment, and it inspired me to share some Burning Spear with you. Respect!


The “Ethnic Vote” – One of the reasons the Reformatories are ahead

Yesterday, I spoke at Marketing magazine’s conference on marketing to so-called “ethnic” communities.  I was critical of the Young Richard Nixon (ie. Jason Kenney), but I also grudgingly gave him credit – he and his party have made major inroads into minority communities in the past few years.  When you consider that they were the main Canadian political repository of xenophobia, nativism and flat-out racism for many years before that, that’s impressive.  It’s also one of the reasons they are nipping at Liberal heels in tight urban races, or moving ahead.

Here’s the deck I used to illustrate my points.  Feel free to staple, spindle and mutilate.

 


Brie-and-chardonnay Elitists, 1; Red-necked mouth-breathers, 0

“Interest in the Progressive Conservative candidate nomination in Carleton Mississippi-Mills has prompted a change of location for the March 31 event.

The nomination meeting, which sees West Carleton businessman and former Ontario Landowners’ Association president Jack MacLaren challenging veteran Tory MPP Norm Sterling, was set to take place at Scared Heart High School in Stittsville. However, the meeting has been changed to Scotiabank Place, 1000 Palladium Dr., due to the large number of registered voters in Carleton-Mississippi-Mills.”

Uh-huh.  The reason they changed Tory Rosedalians changed the venue, of course, is to try and stymie the freedom-loving knuckle-draggers in the Landowners Association. Shame, Mr. Speaker! Shame!

Will it work?  Stay tuned!


Kinsella’s Clear Canadian Campaign Coverage!

It’s back! (Because, yes, Virginia, I now accept that a Spring election seems rather likely – and, in fact, I’m off to the Royal York shortly to speechify about same.)

As such, I am resuscitating the Kinsella Clear Canadian Campaign Coverage (I love alliterations, so shoot me) logo and concept. Every day during the writ, I’ll hand out brickbats and bouquets for the best and worst moves. I’ll be doing likewise in my Sun column and on Sun TV, too.

Watch for this logo – and accept no substitutes!


Advantage Harper

Smart.  It never made sense to me that Harper would give up his “unnecessary election” talking point this morning, and say he was walking over to Rideau Hall to see the GG.  Along with the fact that his statement has now won me a number of bets on which I intend to collect/gloat, he can still say he was the guy who “wanted to make Parliament work,” blah blah blah, and that the Opposition are just politicians who are in it for themselves, blah blah blah.

As I say, smart.

Harper says opposition will have to push him into election; he won’t jump (FedElxn-Harper)
Source: The Canadian Press
Mar 23, 2011 12:19


OTTAWA – Prime Minister Stephen Harper says he won’t jump into an election; the opposition parties will have to push the government off the cliff.

Asked whether he will ask the Governor General for the dissolution of Parliament and an election, he gave a flat no.

“Our priority is the economy and that will continue to be our focus as long as we’re allowed to make that our focus,” he said.

Harper said the Liberals, NDP and Bloc, who have all pledged to vote against the budget handed down Tuesday, can still change their minds.

“The opposition still have the opportunity to put Canadians’ interests first,” he said. “It is not too late for them to step back.”

He rhymed off a string of measures from the budget, saying they are vital to support a still-fragile economic recovery.

“Our economy is not a political game,” he said.

But Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff wasn’t backing down and was ready to deliver the push into an election.

“We have a responsibility to say quite clearly that this government has lost the confidence of the House of Commons,” he said. “This government has lost the confidence of Canadians.”

He said he’s ready to introduce a non-confidence motion later today and debate it Friday.


Hire David Olive for the Liberal War Room!

That is the gist of the message we have to hear in the next few weeks. How will we be better people, a better community, in five, 10 years? No more intolerable waiting lists, for affordable housing, enhanced daycare that is the European and Japanese norm, no more Bangladeshi surgeons driving cab because the cartel of the Ontario Physicians and Surgeons has been broken (And the Law Society of Upper Canada, and the architects and so on.)

It can’t be Harper-bashing 24/7 because he’s been competent enough for that not to work. Any Harper foe is playing his game that way. The Grits and NDP have to play their own game, of how they intend to lead Canadians to a better place.

The fact that he quotes me approvingly naturally may serve to, ahem, colour my judgment.  But the guy is smart! Listen to him, Grits!