03.29.2011 05:52 AM

In today’s Sun: Why this race will get closer

“There is a great, big paradox at the centre of the Conservative Party’s multiple-million-dollar effort to defame Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff. That paradox is this: The reason why the Cons are ahead is because of their attack ad campaign targeting the Grit boss.

And the reason why they will slip behind around the time of the televised leaders’ debates is because of that selfsame ad campaign.”

26 Comments

  1. JH says:

    Personally, as someone who used to enjoy the debates of the past – the piling on so to speak of the last election’s was not very interesting to an average voter. The just weren’t good TV or in any way enlightning and didn’t seem somehow the Canadian way of doing things.
    BTW many at Timmy’s lately feel Duceppe’s biggest fear of Harper is that he will gain a majority and then cut the voter subsidy. Many folks I know feel that Canadian taxpayers should not be the biggest source of a seperatist party’s funding.
    And no before someone starts I am not what you call a ‘con troll’. Just an interested senior citizen. And I come here for Mr. Kinsella’s opinions etc. because, despite his leanings, he has a pretty balanced view of what’s happening – unlike a lot of the other sites out there, on all sides of the political equation.

  2. fritz says:

    “The optics of the debates will be three left-wing party leaders attacking one centre right leader.”

    ^Gord; that would be FOUR center left wing party leaders (representing about 2/3rds of the country’s voters) attacking one right wing leader (representing about 1/3rd of the country voters). That means ‘the Harpster’ gets 1/5th of the air time to promote his lies.

    And that would be a good thing.

  3. Cat says:

    as critical as you are of the conservative ad efforts they seem to be working. You devote several pages to why “negative advertising works” in The War Room. When done well they work. That for the most part the conservatives have used Ignatieff’s words to frame the ads adds to another point in your books about pictures not lying.

    • Namesake says:

      He who laughs first….

      The ‘Rocky’ rounds are over, the spending caps are in play, and the playing field is now level …so now that the Libs will finally be fighting back with some (aired) ads of their own, no doubt Canadians will be seeing what you erroneously call ‘pictures’ (and not nearly so out-of-context ones) of Harper’s mean-spirited and hypocritical words to hear what he really thinks of “you people”…

      so, expect those numbers to move back into balance when it really counts.

    • Ted says:

      Warren said that the ads were working. What he says is that they have overstepped themselves.

      One of the keys to successful negative advertising as Warren notes in his book is it has to be based on reality otherwise you lose your audience. And what he is saying now is that they have gone so over the top, that the real Ignatieff will be too incongruous with the picture painted.

      Which has the double effect of making Ignatieff look good but also the Con attacks lose credibility.

      Anyone can look good in the gym punching a punching bag that doesn’t punch back. It is only in the ring where we can see who are the real fighters.

      • Cat says:

        the ads themselves haven’t changed that much from when they first aired though. I think it’s because that Iggy’s still the great unknown entity and isn’t defining himself well enough to change that. Could that change – sure. But, I couldn’t help noticing two things during the clips of his Montreal stop. The CTV journalist who was with Iggy wasn’t very helpful in that one shot where a nice lady was really excited over shaking Iggy’s hand to which the journalist added that the woman had no clue who Iggy was. Then when Iggy showed his mandolin talents and the guy said that he was sorry but he was voting for Mulcair.

  4. Ted H. says:

    Who says most Canadians don’t want to move to the left? Over 60% of Canadians did not vote for Harper’s right wing drift in the last two elections and do not support the Conservatives in the polls.

    • Namesake says:

      Before you go trotting out the answer from Leger poll from the other day, it depends; on:
      – who’s asked (and who’s asking);
      – what the question(s) is/are;
      – what the options are (both in the survey and in the actual country, at the time this is asked, or that it’s to apply to)

      Probably only a small fraction of Lib voters would prefer a coalition rather than a Lib minority or majority gov’t, if those are the options.

      But as the Sun poll found, about 2/3rds of all the major Opp. parties would rather see a coalition gov’t than another CPC gov’t, if those are the options.

      (And it’s not at all clear WHY they SHOULD be the only options, except under Harper’s paranoid delusions, given that the coalition option has almost NEVER been exercised in our entire history, whereas MINORITY govt’s have, several times, including for the last three govt’s over the past 7 years!)

      So, does that mean that Ignatieff intends to form a coalition?

      NO!! It’s not a measure of what HE intends to do, at all: it’s the wrong tool measuring the wrong subject, for that.

      It means the majority of voters are sick & tired of the CPC gov’t. Which is why we won’t be voting for the CPC. Which is why we’ll most likely end up with a MINORITY LPC Gov’t, thank you very much.

    • Ted H. says:

      Don’t know, don’t care, it’s irrelevant. How many CPC supporters wear suspenders and say “aw shucks”. Just indicating that 60% of Canadians do not support Harpers right wind aganda.

  5. Namesake says:

    Maybe the over-zealous staffer Togneri’s roles in the campaign will be to ‘unrelease’ their opponents’ campaign signs and/or to redact their names…. on the ballots, if he can.

  6. James says:

    Unlike the Chretien ads which mocked his facial features, the Iggy ads do raise real doubts about his suitability for PM. First, he’s been absent from the country for twenty-five years. Imagine if Obama had been out of the United States for that long. Would he be president today? Second, Iggy hasn’t “paid his political dues” so to speak. He was anointed Liberal Party leader in 2009 and now he’s suddenly qualified to be Prime Minister? Who rises to the top that fast? There’s the whiff of an opportunist in him.

    • Namesake says:

      But he’s been back, for over 5 years now; and he was a professional journalist and historian who followed our news even while he was away; and he’s a smart guy, and has had a team of researchers to brief him on the backroom stuff outside the news; and he wasn’t just appointed, he ran in 1 3/4’s leadership elections and was only acclaimed after everyone else dropped out; and if he was just an opportunist, he would have gone home after losing the first one when it was clear that it would be a tough slog and he probably had better opportunities for continued acclaim back at Harvard.

      Thus, all those concerns are past their “expiry date,” as are the bulk of this morally bankrupt CPC party’s talking points and agenda.

      • James says:

        That’s a pretty thin resume for PM to me!

        • Namesake says:

          uh-huh. Well, PET, who was also a Prof. and a talking head pundit before entering public life, was only an MP for 2 years, which included a fast tracked quasi-ambassadorial Parliamentary Sec. role for 1 yr., and just 1 yr. in Cabinet as Justice Minister, before becoming leader & PM… and he did alright. MI has had decades more of the former experience, and over twice as much exp. as an MP, and as the leader for two years already, has been briefed in more portfolios than PET… so, again, your concerns aren’t well-founded.

          • James says:

            If Obama had Iggy’s resume he wouldn’t be president. Iggy is a parachute politician from out of nowhere who is still a mystery to Canadians.

          • Namesake says:

            gee, if only there could be something like, I don’t know, an “election campaign” that could give him some guaranteed, balanced airtime, to introduce himself to the public to change all that.

  7. Sorry Warren,

    “He didn’t come back for you” and “He’s only in it for himself” Is sooo not over the top. In fact, it is very subtle, like “He’s not a leader”, that still rings in my head every time I hear the name Stephane Dion.

    It will take years or at least two elections to prove otherwise. Iggy won’t be around for the next one if he loses this one and can’t form a coalition, Why? Everybody now! ’cause he’s only in it for himself.

    • Dan says:

      I hope you are getting paid for that comment.

      • Namesake says:

        well, we should certainly put paid to it.

        If he didn’t come back for us, but for himself, then he would have just gone back when the going got tough. But he didn’t. He put up with a lot of CRAP, both from them and us, because he loves his country, and sincerely believes he can help it.

        But since you Cons are so susceptible to repetitive messaging, then maybe we should run the “Harper Valley PTA” country song about a million times, so this “very subtle” dig in its lyrics will subliminally take root, too:

        “Well, this is just a little Peyton Place and you’re all Harper Valley hypocrites”

        • James says:

          Right on, DKR. Iggy’s political resume and qualifications are shockingly thin, and he wants the keys to the country??!! Iggy hasn’t even run a lemonade stand. As an astute friend put it, the Liberals replaced one academic with another academic.

          The Liberals would have been better off with proven and credible stalwarts like Frank McKenna and Brian Tobin, but they didn’t want the job.

          • Namesake says:

            so what did PMS ever run prior to attaining office, there, James? That’s right: only the mailroom, at Imperial Oil; a job his Dad got him, when he dropped out of the University (of Toronto!). And later, briefly, a “Think” tank of other Tiny Tory Taxcutting Talking Heads like himself at the NCC, who are all about savaging Health Care.

            So spare us the “He’s not qualified” routine.

  8. billg says:

    “Well, this is just a little Peyton Place and you’re all Harper Valley hypocrites
    So close…..
    “Well this may be the Ig’s last race but your all Harper’s lackey hypocrites”
    I’m here till thursday everyone…
    Jeezus, only another 35 days of this.

  9. Namesake says:

    So, I’ve noted this similarity before somewhat in jest, but now I’m pretty sure it’s true:

    Harper has a personality disorder very similar to that of Bogie’s character, Captain Queeg, from the movie and Herman Wouk novel, The Caine Mutiny:

    a paranoid more intent on hunting down and punishing his imagined enemies for ‘stealing his strawberries’ than in taking responsibility for how his own overbearing, micro-managing style literally led to running his command aground.

    In this case, rather than come to grips with, apologize for, and explain why his government lost power after being held in Contempt for the way it withheld crucial information on the costs of its crime agenda, the F-35s, and the corporate income tax reductions, he continues to be in denial over that, and persists in obsessing over the imagined coalition.

    “Harper doesn’t want to talk about contempt, prefers coalition chatter,” By: Jennifer Ditchburn, The Canadian Press
    03/28/2011 11:48 AM http://urlm.in/hkox

  10. Stephen Harper has been working within three morphed parties to bring about change that he believes will improve the lives of Canadians.

    Since at least 1993 he has been working hard on policy to bring those changes to Ottawa. Now he is Prime Minister and within a Majority. That is some major commitment to Canada and he deserves to be where he is and given the respect he is entitled to.

    He has stayed the course, even with two young children, something I find incredible in this day.

    The point of all the coalition talk is to highlight the fact that Harper had to put up with many negative attack ads and years in opposition. You should not be allowed to just take power after the fact of an election. Harper didn’t do it but Iggy signed onto one, clear and simple.

    Also I am not paid but simply bored, not a hockey fan and the NFL may not start…. EVER!

    • Namesake says:

      Gimme a break. Plenty of people put in much longer hours and many more years to various types of public service, and have families as well, but that doesn’t give them the right to be a PM simply in virtue of that hard work…

      … especially if it involves breaking elections spending laws to get there, and being a serial truth offender and abuser of our democratic institutions to stay there.

      Nor does it excuse running 1,000 attack ads in the last three months, and co-opting so much of the machinery of government over the past 5 years (even to the point of renaming it after himself!) and spending untold millions in gov’t advertising and media manipulation to enhance the CPC’s and his own electoral prospects.

      He’s the one who’s “only in it for himself.” And he’s ruining the good name of our country and scarring some of its best features, in the process.

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