03.22.2011 12:31 PM

Out on a limb

I predict the NDP will cave.

Frankly, they have a bona fide reason for doing so – their leader is very ill.

Comments?  Contrary views?

54 Comments

  1. Lance says:

    I respectfully disagree.

    The Liberals assumed a weakened Layton would support the government. Now he has recovered his support, even increased it a bit. No way Layton supports the budget to keep this government alive right after helping to declare this government in contempt. The Liberals have over-played their hand with this contempt thing, and Layton isn’t going to save Ignatieff from himself.

    • Lance says:

      And yeah, Layton is ill, but think how that looks – a game Layton struggling physically through a campaign. Great genuine PR stuff that you can’t buy.

      And the Tories tried to give the NDP stuff in the budget. The Liberals want an election no matter what, making an ill Layton go out on the hustings. BS stuff I know, but you know that is stuff tha tresonates.

      • smelter rat says:

        Maybe it makes for great theater, but who is going to vote for a guy who may not make it through the next 4 years?

      • James says:

        You’re an idiot. The Liberals want an election. Iggy is angry and itching to go, and doesn’t care what the polls say. And, frankly, I don’t mind politicians standing on principle for a change, without polling. These clowns have run roughshod over our democratic institutions and the fact that the opposition are not going to push over for them, means something.

  2. Harith says:

    I don’t think they’ll cave because of Layton’s ailments. They’ll cave to show that they, the NDP, were able to make the tories change things in their budget and it was the NDP, not the Liberals, who were able to steer that course.

  3. nic coivert says:

    Yes they will. Even if Mulcair has his campaign office open.

  4. Warren says:

    Ditto. Hear, hear.

    • Cath says:

      Yep, Layton sure doesn’t look well. I give him much credit for continuing to beat the NDP drum – we may not like his message but compared to Ignatieff he’s been consistent…which I believe shows in the polls where Layton’s polling above the Ignatieff. The country’d be grateful for passing on an election…if people in my region are any indication.

  5. DJ says:

    I think this bodes well for the Liberals. It puts them in the position of being the real alternative government-in-waiting. Stick with Ignatieff: he’s growing in the job and getting better. Stay united Liberals: the Tories will defeat themselves. Keep up the new attacks on the “Harper regime” and keep presenting Ignatieff in a positive light. Get him riled up and passionate once in a while like on CTV’s Question Period, but avoid the kisses in the air. 🙂 It will all come together sooner or later.

  6. smelter rat says:

    Geez, a coalition with the socialists? Would Harper stoop that low?

    • Marc L says:

      It’s not a coalition…the NDP would merely vote for the budget, not be part of the government.

      • james curran says:

        It’s a coalition.

        • Namesake says:

          yup: if they had even so much as a handshake behind closed doors at that secret pow-pow today in which the NDP promised to support them in confidence votes, then that’s as much of a coalition as was in the cards with the Bloc in ’08.

          • Ron says:

            So all the times over the last five years the Liberals supported the Conservative was what you would call a coalition.

            go figure the Liberals, who hate the Conservatives, in bed with those same Conservatives

            And parlimentarians wonder why the majority of the voting populace feel such a lack of trust about the two main parties

          • Namesake says:

            um, “no” to the “so”:

            I said above that if there was an explicit, hand-shaked agreement b/w the designated reps. of the Opp & the Gov’t to support a non-confidence motion in exchange for some goodies, that it would meet the threshold of the alleged ’08 Bloc coalition;

            but there was no such agreement, and certainly no handshake, b/w the Libs & PMS when the Libs either abstained on or begrudgingly went along with the various confidence bills these past 5 years; hence, no coalition, by that test.

      • jay says:

        Marc L–you’re right that this is not technically a coalition, but then neither are opposition parties who oppose the government a coalition, even though that’s what the cons repeatedly call them.

      • smelter rat says:

        I think I make the rules, and I say it’s a coalition 🙂

  7. MississaugaLibPeter says:

    And because:

    Layton hates Muclair

    Olivia is not ready to take over

    The 6 year lucrative pension entitlement does not kick in for the class of 2006 until February 2012

  8. MontrealElite says:

    This government falls by weeks end.

    I call on the forces of Horus and Stolichnaya to make it so.

  9. Phil Hauser says:

    Interesting rationale but I think Jack could also be making himself into the party’s martyr by crusading through a grueling campaign. Now if the NDP can smell blood and not do what they normally do in terms of losing support to the Liberal’s “fear the tories” schtick it could be a more different parliament than most are predicting. (IF is a tall order though).

  10. Jim says:

    Indeed they will.

    Jack resigns(for health reasons) at end of session. NDP leadership by Aug/Sept.

    By then he will have time to help anyone who is running against Mulcair.

  11. TDotRome says:

    If the NDP caves it won’t be because of Layton’s ills. He’s a pretty tough cookie and, to me, it seems as if he’d push through the pain for the election campaign. Even if the constant up & down of plane stairs are tough on the hip.

    • Namesake says:

      Agreed. They’d already noted that they’ve looked into modifying the luggage elevator on their campaign plane to accommodate him.

      And let’s not forget — as most of us have, or never realized — that the U.S. President F.D.R. ran numerous successful campaigns despite being stricken with polio and having to hobble around on canes or in a wheelchair.

  12. Cow says:

    I mostly agree, except: it seems the olive branch is out to both the NDP and the Bloc, so it’s rather a race to see who caves first. (I still think it’ll be the NDP.)

  13. Dave Roberts says:

    I find it quite sad when any party votes against a budget before they have a chance to read and understand it. It certainly isn’t the only chance to bring down a government.

  14. I think he should step down and get well. Of course, if Mulclair takes over, it will be a newer, uglier NDP. Might as well have Pat Martin as leader…

  15. Namesake says:

    well, good for Jack: he wasn’t such a “cheap date” as Ivison’s been making him out to be, after all, and, barring some major capitulations by the gov’t to up the ante on the GIS and to reverse itself on not cancelling the federal home heating tax: it’s ON.

    • Namesake says:

      and grinning Flaherty’s just said on P&P that there’s NO chance of agreeing to any amendments on the budget. So that’s that.

  16. Lance says:

    So it is to be “go time”. As I said, Layton isn’t going to save Ignatieff from himself.

    Iggy on CTV right now. He looks like he just shit his pants.

  17. Pete says:

    Jack just announced that your forecast was wrong!!!

  18. DL says:

    You were all wrong!! The NDP will oppose the budget and we will have an election – and BTW: Layton and Mulcair are the best of friends and when Layton retires – Mulcair will be his handpicked successor.

  19. JH says:

    No Caving! Great decision by all opposition parties – about time, so let’s dance!

  20. Scott Tribe says:

    No caving apparently:

    http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/03/22/ndp-rejects-federal-budget/

    Off we go to an election ! (Though, I hope the government is found in contempt before the Budget vote).

    • Michael Watkins says:

      Layton really has nothing to lose by enabling an election campaign through concluding there are no further gains to be made by trying to work with the Conservatives. Flaherty seemed clear on this. Probably more importantly, Layton and Harper have the same goals, and have shared these goals for quite some time – to further marginalize the Liberal brand in Canada.

      Maybe there is something deeper to the timing but to me it seems that it didn’t make sense for Layton to skip out on the campaign potential this time around – he may have concluded good or bad health, this is his last campaign as leader of the NDP. Whatever the rationale for his stance, I wish him nothing but the best of health.

      Unlike the Liberals, the these days the NDP are at their core unafraid of going to the electorate for affirmation.

      Besides, “Liberal, Tory, same old story” is not just a catchy jingle to many in the NDP. At their core they believe it, and in many regards they are not wrong.

      Zero Liberals in Vancouver ridings is my call.

  21. JenS says:

    I suspect the government will fall on ethics by Friday, and never even make it to the budget vote.

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