05.22.2012 06:12 AM

This is a weird column

But you’ve got to admire his willingness to make a pile of predictions, willy-nilly, with nary a qualifier in sight. This is a columnist operating without a safety net, folks, and it’s a wondrous thing to behold.

23 Comments

  1. Tiger says:

    If you saw large numbers of Liberals defect to the New Democrats, in that context, I’m pretty sure you’d see a few Liberals defect to the Conservatives, too — Harper isn’t a new unknown like Smith.

    Enough to save them? Not sure.

  2. Jordan says:

    I doubt it would take much searching to fnd numerous articles from 2009 about the big majority government Ignatieff was set to win.

  3. Tdotlib says:

    I read it this morning thinking that he’d have some new insight in to how the left might move in 2015 but he’s really just re-hashing the same old tropes of our dear party’s demise. Not really flying without a net when the trapeze is only 6 feet off the ground.

  4. William says:

    People usually can’t get it right next month let alone three years out.

    Federal LPC is barely treading water now and also in 2015 according to this guy.

    Unfortunately, I don’t see anything on the horizon to change that.

    • Michael says:

      The election of Mulcair as NDP leader has taken the wind out of their sails. For now the NDP seems like a reasonable alternative. They haven’t done anything crazy chicken. But it’s still a long way to the next election.

      Even though the Liberals are not getting my public attention, or gaining any traction with voters, I wouldn’t be so fast to write them off. Their membership numbers are good, and fundraising is up. Not to say things are rosy, but don’t write the Liberals off either.

      • William says:

        Fair point, I donated to the LPC during the campaign last year but I won’t be as long as Rae is leader.

        If they can show me something interesting, maybe they’ll get my support again.

        I’m on the sidelines looking at my options. Can’t vote for the social regressives and the NDP is still too left for my liking on economic policy.

  5. Francis says:

    Interesting column, although I wouldn’t say these are “unexpected things” (cuts to the CBC, recasting rules on immigration, curtailing environmental regulation, raising the retirement age, celebrating the monarchy). I think many had predicted these should a Conservative majority happen.

  6. OdysseusCA says:

    A very interesting piece of journalistic fiction no doubt. It’s not as far off the mark as one might believe so long as RoboCON doesn’t rear its ugly head and start to stick to these Conservatives.

  7. Dan says:

    Guaranteed the Conservatives haven’t balanced the budget by 2015. If you actually believe they’ll do it, then you don’t understand the conservative agenda or the strategy to get there.

    They’re going to have a huge deficit, and they’re going to use it as a pretext to say “we can’t afford it” to the opposition.

    I also have my doubts about whether you’ll see that many jobs in Canada, outside of the resource sectors.

    I actually think there’s an opportunity for the Liberals if they just admit they’re a center-right party. For all Warren’s recent talk about how criticizing the economic management of the oilsands is “an insult to the West” and “un-Canadian”, you guys should just nominate Alison Redford and be done with it. She’s apparently very “centrist” and “moderate”, right?

  8. JamesHalifax says:

    I don’t think he’s the first columnist to write off the Liberals…and he certainly won’t be the last. Few points: For the most part, people join a party because it consists of like-minded folks who share the same ideals and they want to make a difference. From my friends of the Liberal persuasion, I don’t get the impression that their views or goals have changed substantially, regardless of the election outcome. True, they took a beating, but that doesn’t mean their ideals have also abandoned them, so much as Liberal Party leadership has.
    I would never write off the Liberal Party this early, as they are the only other political party that has the capability and the experience to actually Govern the country.

    Nightmare Scenario: Left leaning Liberals flock to the NDP in the next election, allowing the NDP to form Government in 2015. Thomas Mulcair becomes the Prime Minister and rightfully begins to enact the policies they campaigned on. Seeing the new Government in action, businesses in Ontario begin to shut down operations and flock to the USA, or Alberta (which has now enacted the “firewall”) to get away from the voodoo economics that is socialism. Thousands become unemployed, but due to new and even more generous social programs in effect, it doesn’t have an immediate impact. Our National Debt and Deficit’s become “Greece – Like” over the next few years.
    On the financial front, the NDP immediately begins cutting the military and increasing welfare or EI benefits. People who actually work see huge increases in income taxes, gas taxes, taxes on power, increased taxes on capital gains, etc…etc… to pay for these benefits.

    People stop investing in Canada. Our debt becomes unmanageable. Seeing this, Mulcair then decides to change the equalization formula meaning an even more unbalanced share of Welfare for Quebec. Soon…the people of Canada realize what a disaster the NDP has been and decide to boot them out the next election.

    The only question is with regards to how much damage the NDP can do in 4 years, and how long it will take to fix it. It will make the work of Chretien in the 90’s look simple by comparison.

    Dont’ give up on the Liberal Party yet….there are still many Liberals out there who remain believers. They just need to remember that whatever has been done, can be un-done. (but not with Rae at the helm…or Justin-e for that matter)

    • smelter rat says:

      Here’s an even scarrier nightmare scenario: the Cons win another term in 2015.

      • Philip says:

        smelter:
        The jury is still out as to whether or not the Conservatives won a majority in 2011. Plenty of time to do the work we need to do and let’s see what 2015 brings.

    • Philip says:

      I see the crazy ass assumption train is still running on schedule. Wow.

    • Cynical says:

      I’m a left-leaning Liberal and right now (this week, post “Dutch Disease”, I’d rather vote for John Manley than Thomas Mulcair. (Sorry, I don’t know him well enough to call him,Tom, and don’t plan to. )
      I have had it up to the eyeballs with assholes of every political stripe making points by setting one region against the other. I didn’t like it in Ralph Klein, and I sure as hell don’t like it in Mulcair. And no, I didn’t much like it in Trudeau, either.
      The LPC better come up with something soon, or yes, some reasonable Conservative is going to replace our Thug-in-Chief and his gang of brown-shirts, and it will be good bye to red for a a really long time.
      I will continue to contribute locally (good candidate, good organization) but as far as the national party is concerned, good luck with that. You might as well put fratricide into the party constitution.
      IMHO the LPC should have learned from professional sports. Good long-term performance is obtained by getting good players, developing them, and getting them to work together, not by importing expensive stars and hoping for miracles.

  9. Philippe says:

    My best guess is that Mulclair (as judged by his past behavior) is bound to implode within the next 3 years.

    What the Liberals need to start doing is taking bold positions, rather than meekly claiming an imaginary middle-ground. The NDP’s oil sands gambit is playing well acrossplenty of folks in this country. For all their faults, at the very least they’re offering aclear positions & an obvious contrast to the Cons.

    • Dan says:

      Yeah, I have to wonder how slamming Mulcair’s boldness on the oilsands leaves room for the Liberals to become the new opposition. If they want to imitate the Conservatives, I think voters will end up going for the real ones.

  10. JamesHalifax says:

    Wow…what a cognizent rebuttal of my post.

    Just a reminder. What you currently see in Quebec is the result of many years of socialist policy. After giving away “free stuff” for a generation, people shouldn’t be surprised that this generation expects more of the same. What the fine folks of Quebec seem to forget is that all of these “freebies” actually do cost money, and someone has to pay for it. Currently, that someone….is ALBERTA.

    Free Daycare. Not actually free of course, but hey…$7 bucks is $7 bucks. Forget for the fact that the actual cost is closer to $65 per day per kid. And forget the fact that it is subsidized by people who actually work, some of which do not have access to this Free daycare. Think about it. We could have a married couple with two kids. He’s a lawyer, she’s a doctor. Their combined income is $450,000 per year give or take. They pay $14 per day in daycare. Meanwhile, Jean-Guy works as a forestry worker earning $45,000 per year and he has four kids, but given the remote location there isn’t the infrastructure of population in place to justify one of these “free” daycare facilities. In fact, most free daycares can be found in the larger communities or major cities. Nevertheless…Jean-Guy works his ass off while his wife stays at home to look after the kids..and Jean Guy pays for the rich folks to have free babysitting.

    Tuition fees: No need to go into that, as we see the results each night while Quebec’s spoiled kids rampage in the streets and throw molotov cocktails at police, or terrorize subways. (of course, if any of these students protesting studied a real area of expertise as opposed to “gender studies” or “social studies” they may have hopes of getting a job that didn’t involve the grinding of coffee beans)

    Seperatist threat: This is one of the biggest reasons Quebec is suffering. How many businesses uprooted operations and moved the hell out of Quebec…taking the actually productive citizens with them.

    As for the Conservatives winning the next election…..only if people still understand basic economics in three years time. That’s usually one of true things about Canadians in general. Areas where “freebies” aren’t expected…. vote Conservative, and sometimes Liberal. Areas where welfare or entitlements are considered a right….usually go NDP, thanks to the folks who collect welfare benefits, EI as a sustainment program, or basically, folks who think that the Government has all the money and just needs to share it.
    (hi phil !!)

    • Jason King says:

      Care to provide any proof or should this be shelved in the anecdote and opinion section?

      • JamesHalifax says:

        Jason, to anyone with a basic understanding of market forces…….my comments are an obvious truth.

        what part do you refute? Please show me how I am wrong.

        Free stuff mentality: It’s there in any report you see where these students actually make comments. They’re demand is not that tuition shouldn’t rise, but that it should be free. (free of course, is just a myth)

        Daycare: Please show me any place in the civilized world where $7 dollars will cover the full (and real) cost of child care.

        Seperatist threat: How many people, and how many businesses uprooted and left Quebec since the Seperatists became a real influence.

        As for NDP voters…..please have a look and see who the NDP party panders’ too. It isn’t the voters who work and create wealth, or create businesses. Look where the NDP has the most support, and compare the regional data to show where the most welfare or EI is paid out.

        LIke I wrote, Jason….the proof is all around you. You just need to pay attention. Oh…and think critically once in while.

  11. Michael Behiels says:

    Once a dominant Party, the Liberal Party of Canada in this case, drops into 3rd place it is almost impossible to dig itself back into official opposition never mind into government.

    There are simply too many factors that have contributed the the slow but probably inevitable demise of the once dominant LPC.

    Changing demographics of Canada.

    The rise of the New West.

    The collapse of Libs stronghold in Quebec in 1980s.

    Terrible choice of leaders since Martin.

    I could go on!

    LPC rank and file have a very tough decision to make.

    Join the NDP And keep it in the centre. Or join CP and move it to the centre.

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