06.11.2012 06:17 AM

If he runs, he’ll win

…and his putative opponents know it.

That’s why a robust smear operation is now underway against him.

Will it achieve its objective, and keep him out? Will it turn off Liberal delegates?

We shall see soon enough.

44 Comments

  1. james curran says:

    Well let’s just see what goofy leadership rules the National Executive comes up with this week. Why they’re even addressing the Rae issue at all is beyond me. There’s nothing in their mandate to address the issue. If he wants to run he should be sending them a note with his intentions and THEN they should make a decision on his eligibilty. By them addressing the issue now surely means Rae has already told them he’s running. Which, of course, would mean they should have told him to hit the road and resign quite some time ago.

    As for my friend Justin? WINNER, WINNER, Chicken Dinner.

  2. Jordan says:

    Why should Rae resign as interim leader? If he and the board doesn’t believe he has an unfair advantage after serving for a year then what changes after another year in the post? Didn’t Rae say he wanted the job for at least 18 months? Letting him resign now likely helps his chances more so then if he stayed on till the race.

    • james curran says:

      Um NO! He said if he was to be interim leader, he wouldn’t do it for a period of less than 18 months so that he can get renewal in place. Then, HE PROMOPTLY AGREED NOT TO RUN FOR THE PERMANENT LEADER!!!!!!!!!!! In what planet would it not be construed as an UNFAIR advantage?

      • Jordan says:

        Many Liberals do not think he got an unfair advantage over the last year, I completely disagree, yet they think he should step down if he wants to run. If the interim leadership doesn’t give an unfair advantage, like the board is basically saying, then why should he have to step down to run?

  3. Jeff says:

    If he runs, he’ll pull another ‘Canada Reads’ and jump ship to swing the contest. He knows he won’t win the leadership, won’t win an election, and won’t swing the choice of many Liberals speaking from the sidelines. But he could have an impact if he gets in, wins some support, then embraces someone other than Rae.

    • james curran says:

      Really? I’ll take that bet.

      • Jeff says:

        Really. He was reluctant to get into politics in the first place… backed into it… and knows better than anyone the strains politics and a spotlight can put on a young family. Might feel a greater responsibility to take on the leadership because the party’s in such dire shape and the gov’t is so nasty, but it’s really not his responsibility, nor his calling. If he won the leadership, it wouldn’t resolve the split on the left, nor the fatigue of so many with the Liberal brand: he’d lose the election. In the process, he’d expose himself, and his family, to the worst aspects of public life. Why subject himself to that? Because none of the old guard who stood aside when Martin was ascendant are interested at this point? Because McGuinty doesn’t have a serviceable majority to hand off, nor the desire to trade office holding for rebuilding?

  4. Kevin T. says:

    It would be surprising if there wasn’t a robust smear campaign, but the thing about Justin is that he has shown he can take a punch. The Cons will always use smear campaigns and underhanded tactics to win, it is the new reality that Harper has bestowed onto Canada, the non-Harper crowd just needs someone who can handle that first barrage and then fucking fight back for a change. No fucking “I will mess with you until I’m done” shit, and then fucking turtling and shitting the bed big time.
    Justin will take the punches, as he has for most of his life as his father’s son, but then I want to see him give a whopping Sober Second Thought-worthy beatdown.
    If he pushes for a merger, that would be a game-changer, kinda like Mackay’s betrayal of the PCs, but minus the betrayal and less douchy doofus-ness.

  5. JamesHalifax says:

    Well, whomever decides to enter the race to become the new Leader….what will their policy book look like?

    Mulcair already has the
    -unionists
    -sovereigntists (most of whom make up the Quebec wing of his party)
    -Anti-westernists
    -kooks
    -layabouts
    -marxists
    -carbon-taxers

    Doesn’t leave much for Rae or Trudeau.

    Unless of course, either one of them can come up with something clever. How about…”Harper…..he’s got a hidden agenda”

  6. Kre8tv says:

    I hope he doesn’t run. I think he’s an entirely like able, smart guy. The kind who is great to have drinks with. But I also know that leadership of the LPC is a thankless job in a town that eats ambition, bones and all.

  7. Self-confessed Raelian says:

    I agree……If he runs, Bob’s sunk…….He’d better pray for Justin opting for fatherhood over nationhood…..

  8. Brad says:

    Can we get someone who will stand up to Harper, all that bullshit about how he is here for us?

    • JamesHalifax says:

      Hey brad…why do you need a politician to do it?

      Election’s Canada and Marc Mayrand are doing their best to make him look bad…give him time. If Elections Canada can’t find any hard evidence…give them time, they’ll make it up as they go.

      • kenn2 says:

        If Elections Canada can’t find any hard evidence…give them time, they’ll make it up as they go.

        Um, fuck off. Exactly the converse is true – while feigning co-operation, the government both in public and private has taken every non-criminal step (that we know of) to push off the day of reckoning and to pressure EC for a stalemate, or to at least run the clock out. IF we had proper accountability laws on the books and if all parties involved were not stonewalling, we’d have known in less than 3 months after the election whether there would be charges. But no, it’s dragged out exactly as the CPC intended, every day increases the odds that serious charges won’t be laid, any minor charges can be waved away, and that the public won’t care. I’ve given up any hope that there will be justice. The CPC have got away with it, and they will be much more of the same come next election.

        • JamesHalifax says:

          kenn 2……

          While I appreciate the concise nature of your recommendation, I choose not to follow your advice. Apparently, I struck a nerve. 🙂

          I never would have brought the point up, if it was not being discussed amongst some in the media. It is clear, that someone in Elections Canada (or numerous someone’s) have it out for the Conservatives. This is evidenced by the leaks to the media by elections Canada officials, and by the fact that the CBC and other media were told ahead of time about the raid on the Conservative party. Clearly, elections Canada is trying to do some damage. The fact you disregard even the possibility of that, tells me you approve of the tactic.

          This can also be seen in the Dean Del Maestro case. Elections Canada has him under investigation, but instead of calling the MP in question to seek clarfication, someone in Elections Canada once again ran to the media hoping for maximum damage.

          As the old saying goes, “It’s not paranoia, if someone really is out to get you”

          I do agree that something went wrong in Guelph, I can give you that much. But I’m also suspicious about the tactics being used to keep the story alive without any further evidence. I think Elections Canada is doing its level best to find something, ANYTHING…that would make the Conservatives look bad. Given the past behaviour of someone at Elections Canada, I’m also not convinced that they wouldn’t simply make something up to help their cause.

          • kenn2 says:

            If I understand correctly, EC didn’t go public with any allegations until well after the election, when the investigations were stymied.

            Every election the CPC pushes the legal and ethical edge of election tactics. They’ve learned well from their GOP tutors, and elements of the US right-wing machine still get tapped to assist. Whether the known incidents were centrally blessed, or the actions of rogue elements… we’ll never know because the involved parties are not cooperating, and there was no requirement for the sort of record-keeping that would clearly point to the source. Do you really agree that any “entity” with a valid VISA can cause ANY message to be robo-called to ANY number of recipients, without verification of the source?

            What gets me? That the CPC in power is the exact antithesis of openness, transparency, accountability, especially when it comes to campaigning. And not a pinch of election legislation that would make things one whit better for voters or the country. Don’t mess with success, eh?

          • JamesHalifax says:

            kenn 2…..you do not understand correctly.

            Reporters are not allowed to go through the documents at Elections Canada…someone has to provide them (leak them). Reporters are not clairvoyant. They did not show up at the conservative Party HQ under the assumption that “maybe something will happen”…someone at Elections Canada told them.

            For example, Dean Del Maestro’s election from 2008 was already signed off and approved by Elections Canada. Del Maestro has been a strong critic of the people at Elections Canada…and they didn’t like it so they are now going through his old docs with a fine tooth comb. Instead of calling Del Maestro for clarification about his spending…they instead called the reporters who have been running with the story for months. That too, is not a coincidence.

            as I wrote above, “It is not paranoia, if someone really is out to get you”

            As for the CPC being in power…get used to it. That’s what happens when more people vote Conservative, than vote for any other party.

          • Tim Sullivan says:

            The jury is still out on weather more people voted Conservative.

            Is Opitz still sitting as an MP? He didn’t get more votes than the other guy.

          • JamesHalifax says:

            Tim, I sympathize. I can see now that you are incapable of clear or critical thought. You seem to be one of those folks who lack the capacity to string together basic logic, as well as a basic sentence.

            Instead, ask yourself this. If Elections Canada did NOT leak, or give word of potential raids or investigations….how did the reporters and the media know about it?

            Did they break into EC headquarters and rifle through someone’s desk?

            You poor man….no wonder you rely on others’ to do your thinking for you. Watching you, is like watching a blind man trying to play catch.

            Maybe you should go back to the sandbox.

  9. dillon says:

    How old is Bucky? Doubtful he has the stamina to stay around 8 years until he can rebuild and win.And the scandals about his union activities could cause the Liberals to be further decimated into oblivion.

  10. Philippe says:

    There’s going to be a second coming of Trudeau-Mania shortly, and it’s going to put wind in the sails of the LPC.

    • JamesHalifax says:

      The only wind in any Liberal sails, comes from the blowhard who wants to trade in his interim position…for the permanent one.

      • Tim Sullivan says:

        Where does your ignorant opinion stand now? Blowhard? No one had called that Rhode Scholar a blow hard before.

        You are an ignoramus of firsts, aren’t you?

        • JamesHalifax says:

          Tim, being a rhodes scholar has little to do with being a blowhard.

          Being a blowhard…is what makes one a blowhard. Bob Rae is just an elected blowhard. Don’t worry though…Parliament seems to have more than one.

  11. que sera sera says:

    I’d happily support Trudeau. It’s either Trudeau/Liberal or Mulcair/NDP.

    I cannot stay in Canada any longer watching a bought & paid for Harper polish more turds & pretend they’re bonbons for his mute & neutered majority to stuff down Canada’s throat.

  12. Realist says:

    Whether he runs or doesn’t run, here’s the thing: I don’t WANT Justin to be PM. He’s a good MP and he knows how to get up Tory noses, which are good things, but he has shown no sign whatsoever that he could run the country. Sure, he could win the leadership, especially with the party in its current demoralized, exhausted and intellectually empty state. Maybe he could even win an election (though I doubt it). But I couldn’t bring myself to vote for a JT-led Liberal party. It would be irresponsible. If he wins the leadership, colour me gone. For whatever that’s worth (probably not much).

  13. bigcitylib says:

    The Liberals will be doomed unless they elect Elizabeth May as leader. Yes, a Green + LPoC merger, with Mother Gaia herself in charge. Teenage Jesus (Justin) can best serve as her Minister of kicking ass and partying down. Any other way and I feel all is lost.

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