10.22.2012 12:24 PM

Holy crap

I’m moving to Canada!

Oh, wait.


  1. Alex says:

    Don’t sweat it Warren. Nate Silver from the New York times recently wrote an excellent article explaining why the Gallup poll is an outlier and should not be given a lot of weight: see http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/18/gallup-vs-the-world/#more-36284

  2. bigcitylib says:

    IBDD has Obama up by the same amount. Everyone else has them neck and neck.

  3. !o! says:

    I thought the lead was concentrated to the southern states, which normally vote republican anyways. Obama will probably lose Florida, but is leading in most other swing states.

  4. Craig Spafford says:

    Warren, the Salt Lake City Tribune just endorsed Obama– really. Here is the link:


    It’s a really great analysis of the situation right now.

  5. Ronald O'Dowd says:


    The American electorate is already plenty cynical. Obama would be a fool to try and profit from that with a deliberate October “surprise”. He would come off as an absolute phony and opportunist and IMHO that would sink him for sure.

  6. WDM says:

    Up until the first debate, I thought Obama had this election in the bag. However, his poor performance allowed Romney to gain ground and perhaps convince some Republicans – many of whom aren’t exactly fans of their own nominee – that they may be able to defeat Obama. A ginned up Republican base is a dangerous thing, in terms of voter turnout. The DNC machine better be ready to get every single person who wants to vote Democrat out to the polls.

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:


      Remember how Reagan lost the first debate in ’84 to Mondale? But then came in the second…

      “I am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent’s youth and inexperience.”

      And the rest, as they say, is history.

    • Ted B says:

      I put that first debate down to a Kerry vs Bush performance.

      Kerry had a crumbling campaign and very low expectations.

      Bush had been president for 4 years, didn’t think much of Kerry as a challenger, wasn’t use having to prepare himself for a debate (likely dismissive of his staffers telling him to prepare).

      No different than Romney and Obama, and the end result won’t be any different.

      Romney is a solid performer, maybe more than solid, and benefits from low expectations. But if you don’t like what he’s saying, then wait a minute or two. That’s his biggest problem. Even more than the millionaire inheritance and wealth & power pedigree, private school upbringing, idiotic and self-defeating 47% nonsensical beliefs, etc. None of which helps him, but what the hell does the guy stand for today? And will he stand for it tomorrow. He makes Kerry look inflexible.

  7. Austin So says:

    Obama really needs to hammer home the inconsistencies between the policies of Governor Romney (the moderate who showed up at the first debate) and Republican presidential nominee Romney (the Tea-party lite guy who hides when the camera lights are on).

    “Hi. My name is Mitt Harper…err…Romney…and I will lie through my teeth to get your vote”.

  8. billg says:

    I wonder how much over saturation has hurt Obama. WK has commented before on how Harper stays away from interviews and talk shows….I’d say Dalton McGuinty has stayed away from the cameras as much as possible as well, Obama seems to be on some kind of panel or talk show every week. I still cant see US voters changing paths right now, but, if they do I wonder if voters felt Obama spent too much time playing the part of President instead of being the President. Just askin’.

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